кѥ˥塼

޸Ρкѥ˥塼̤ưͻ֥Ǥϵ岹Ȳ˻ߤΤúи󾧤ޤиӽиȤϰ㤤ޤߤʴ㤤ΤǤ

2008ǯ05

2007ǯ٤Υͥ륮ϡ07ǯٸȾˤĤ1Х100ɥ
ȤʤˤĤơΤ褦ʬϤޤ

װ5060ɥ롣

굡إꥹ3040ɥ롣

ȤȤϡߤ130ɥβʤʤɤȤǤʤȤȤˤ
ꤽǤ

Ǥ⡢ФҤͤ򤹤ַкѥ˥塼ߡפϡ
󵯤Ȼפޤ

ʤϡϡ1Х130ɥɤ200ɥ밿300
ɥ뤷Ƥ⤪ʤΤǤϤʤȡ

ʤȤ򤤤ȡ󤫤Хå󥰤ʵޤ
ƽ񤭤ޤ

󡢼֤μҲŪȤȤդʹȤޤ

ΤäƤͤϡ빽ǯۤǤ͡

줫顢кѤγȤΤ¸ΤǤ


Ķʤ29ϵ岹Ȳιؤαƶͽ¬ȯɽޤ


2030ǯιﳲۤϡߤǯ1롣

ܱߤγ̤ϡ1990ǯ38徺롣
Ĭﳲ硣

2050ǯΥμ̤ϡ̳ƻ̤Ǥä뤬ᵦ
    ͹Ǥϸ롣

ϤΥ֥Ӥۤǡ

ⲹˤΤؤΥꥹ硣إåá

 

ȯɽƤϡ̤ܿΤǤϤޤĶʤϡ
ޤǤƱͤͽ¬򤷤Ƥޤ

뤫ɤȤ⡢ʪؤαƶҳʤɡ˴
䤹ܤ¿ʡȤΤޤǤΰݤǤ

⤦ַϤʤɤؤαƶͽ¬ƤϤɤȡפΤǤ
񤷤ȤȤʤΤǤ礦͡

ϤȤơƹΥ˥塼åƤȡȻ
ƱơƹǤ⡢Ȳαƶͽ¬ľ졢Ƹɽ
Ƥ褦Ǥ

ƹǤϡפʱƶȤƼΤ褦ʤȤ󤲤Ƥޤ

л

ϰˤȳﳲ

߱ѥѲ

ʪμ̤θ

ʳ


ʤ˵Եܤ˸2025ǯޤǤú
ξ̤뤳ȤϤʤʤɤȸ륢ꥫǤƲ
αƶɤʤ礭ǧƤΤǤ


ﳲϡߤʡú򥬥󥬥ȤȤˤäư
ޤ

ǡﳲϡïǤȤȤˤʤΤǤ礦

ΤȤϡïǤȤ⤵Ƥޤʤ顢
Ҥ»뤳ȤϤޤ

ǡäǤ⤷ˡԤ»̿
ȤʤСɤʤǤ礦

λϡͽۤ»γۤ˸礦ʬ⡢
˾褻Ƥʤȷ׻ʤȤˤʤޤ

ޤǤΤȤϡϵ岹Ȳˤä
лꡢ
ϡ緿Ȥˤ»ϡҲΤǤʤȤʤ
ôäƤޤ

ȤȤϡ񤹤뤿ˤҲΤȤƤ
ϡñ㤦ݤ˻ʧǤϤʤθ˰
ˤäƤ⤿餵ѤޤȤȤˤʤΤǤ


ʤȤͤȡդƤʤ̤
ΤʤΤȤƤޤ

⤷2050ǯޤǤúξ̤80󸺤餹ɬפ
СޤǾޤ٤βʤʲʤȤȤ
ʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦


ʤȤ񤯤ȡ

֤äȥβʤ夲ȤΤšǤ褬Ǥ
ǤϤʤ

Ȥ褦ĤʹƤʤΤǤúξ
︺뤳ȤϡΤȤƤΥͥ륮λ̤򸺤餹
̣ޤ

꡼󥨥ͥ륮γȯäȤäȵޤСúξ
̤︺Ĥġɬפʥͥ륮ϳݤǤ뤳Ȥˤʤޤ

ǤϡɤС꡼󥨥ͥ륮γȯ¥ʤ뤳ȤǤ

꡼󥨥ͥ륮γȯ¥ʤˤȤä礭ʥͥåˤʤäƤ
ΤϡȤǤ

Ǥ

βʤ夬ȡΥͥåȤʤäƤ륯꡼󥨥ͥ륮
Ȥ꤬褵뤳ȤˤʤΤǤ


ϵ岹Ȳοʱƶ򤸤äͤ뤳Ȥȡ
ϡå򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

󡢥եؤΥơ顼ΤäƤޤ

Τʤ

Ǥ

2005ǯޤǹôκ̳ĤȤᡢߤϥե
綵򤷤Ƥޤ

֤ǡΥơ顼Ρ

ͻŤβĤǹֱ餷ƹϤƹ
Ԥβ٤ζͻ¤ǶŪʥեΰפȸ
ȤΤǤ

֤ˤϡܶԤޤޤΤʡ

ޤܤ0.5ȼ׹Ǥϰ㤤Ȥͤ
ȡȤʤΤǤ礦͡

֤㤢Ƕθʤιƭ켡ʤιƭ⡢ܤ䥢
ʤɤƤΤƶƤȤΤ͡

ȤˤʤΤǤ礦͡

ơ顼ϡ֥Хʥեɸɬפ
ȤޤǸäȤ


֤Ǥϡ夲뤳ȤɬפʤΡ


ơ顼ϡޤ

ͤĶƤ

 

󡢥ơ顼롼ȤΤʹȤޤ

ơ顼롼ȤΤϡޥ󥭥塼ΥƥȤˤФƤ
FF졼ȡˤλмΤȤǤ

FF졼ȡᥤեΨ2.00.5ߡʥեΨ2.0ˡ0.5ߡGDP
åס


˺ƹΥեΨ2.5ȤޤGDPåפ
Ȥޤ礦

ȡFF졼ȡ2.52.00.254.75

ȡñ˷׻4.75ˤʤȤ櫓Ǥ͡

FF졼Ȥϡºݤˤ2Ǥ顢ü㤤Ȥ
ˤʤΤǤ

λߤƤȡʤʤ㤤ͤϽФƤʤߤǤ
͡

㤨СեΨ0ǡGDPåפ0Ȳꤷޤ礦

FF졼ȡ02.00.5ߡʡ2.0ˡ1.0

 

μܤñƤϤȡܤθߤ
0.5ȤΤϡΤ˰᤮褦Ǥ

ȤơܶԤFRB޶夲褦
ȤͭʤȻפޤ

ϤɤȤȸСΤŪ
ե򾷤װˤʤäƤ뤳ȤǧȤƤ⡢Ȥƶ
СʵذͤʤǤ

⤷Ƕ夲ƧڤꡢʵहС֤
Хå󥰤ΤɬȡϲȤƤ򤱤ȡ

ȤȤˤʤСFRBϡ¿ΥեϻߤʤΤȻ
äƤΤȡ¬뤳ȤˤʤΤǤš


Ǥ⡢֤ϤʤΤǤפȤϡƤޤ

ʤȤдȤȷפΥեͽۤޤäƤޤ
Ǥ

ˤƤ⡢ƹ񤬶ͻžΤϡкĹΨ
3٤ޤǤ˲뤫եΨ4٤ãޤǤϵ
ꤨʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦


Ķϡ¶Ԥζ򸺤餹Ǥʤʪ
夲Ȥ2Ĥ̤ǾԤˤʤΤʡȻפäϡ
򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

̾ȤǤ른硼᤬ʤˤĤƸ
ڤƤޤ

ʤιƭϡХ֥Ǥȡ

ɥ뤬夯ʤäꡢǤ˱꤬Фꡢμ
פ礷Ƥ뤳Ȥ⤢뤬Ƕθʤιƭϡ굡ˤ
Ƥ⤿餵ƤȤΤǤ

ͤƤߤ餪ʤΤǤ

إåեɤοߤʥ᤬ʤȤ򤤤ʤơ

⡢äƤޤ

You can also anticipate that [the bubble] will

eventually correct but that is unlikely to happen

before the recession actually reduces the demand.

֥Х֥ϺǽŪˤ϶Ǥϥꥻå
äƼºݤ˼פޤǤϡꤽϤʤ


󡢤Υθɤפޤ


ʤ100ɥˤʤäȤˤ϶äޤ䴷Ƥ
Ƥޤäơ200ɥޤǾ夬ȤͽۤФƤǤ

200ɥκ򤬤ɤˤ뤫ʬޤ󤬡ʹ֤ͽۤʤƤ
øʤΤǤ

θɬǼǤޤ


Х֥ȸʤ顢¼ʤ¤ꡢʤ㲼ʤȤ
Τϲ̷⤷ƤȻפޤ

ΤʤСХ֥ȤȤϡ¼ʳװDzʤ夬ä
ȤȤǧΤǤ뤫Ǥ

Τˡ¼вʤ㲼ǤȤΤǤ
ޤǤιƭХ֥ǤȤΤǤСΥХ֥
߽Фä뤳ȤˤäƥХ֥뤬Ƥȸʤ
Ǥ

ǤϡХ֥߽ФƤ븶Ȥϲ

ϡȥɥ¤ˤʪԾ¿̤굡⤬ή
뤳ȤǤ

ȡ굡ĴãȤ¤ĤȤ̤ȡ
κ߸ˤͭ뤳Ȥȯ߸Ѥ¤Ĥᡢ
ޤɬפʤȤ̤ΤǤ

⤦Ūޤ礦

¢ƤȤޤ礦

ơ֤ä٤äƤȤޤ

ԤƤԤĤۤβʤ夬ȻפСʤΤ
Фˤ褦ȹͤ뤫⤷ޤ󡣤Ǥ⡢Ȥ߸ˤ
Ȥϡ򸽶˴ƱѤ©ʬ
뤳Ȥ̣ޤ

顢⤤֤ǤϺ߸Ѥिˡ߸ˤϰ
̤褦Ȥ󥻥ƥ֤Ưޤ㤤Τ褦ʾ
Ǥϡ߸Ѥ򤽤ۤɵˤɬפʤʤΤǤ

ȤȤǡƹʤƭƤ礭
װˤʤäƤ뤳ȤͤΤǤ͡

ǡϡꥻåꤷ¼ʤȡʤ㲼
ʤȽҤ٤Ƥ櫓Ǥꥻåꤹȡס
뤳Ȥͤ졢ʤ굡⤬ʾʪԾή
ǽ⤢ΤǤ

ˡʵʤäƤ⡢ξ񤬵޸뤳ȤϹͤ
ˤΤǤ

Զˤʤäơ˼ȼԤ褦ʻ֤ˤǤʤС
ΤȤˤʤȻפޤкĹΨϤ˥ޥʥ
Ȥ褦ʻ֤2ȾϢ³³Ƥ⡢ξ񤬵޸
뤳ȤϹͤˤȻפޤ


षե줬뤳Ȥˤäơ夲򶯤
ˡʤ礭ȹͤ٤ǤϤʤǤ礦

ȤȤǡեˤʤȡդ˸ʤ㲼Ȥ
ʸݤΤǤϤʤǤ礦

 

硼ϡ򤷤ƤΤȻפä
򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

βʤޤ夬ꤽǤ

ޥäƤͤ䡢طζȳο͡ˤȤäƤϤ
ǤʤȤǤ

ʤιƭϡкѤ礭ʱƶͿǤ

ääƤޤ

֥ʤξ徺ˤäƲȷפؤΥ᡼䡢ߤΰ
Ȥäƶۤ

ΤˤǤϴְäƤʤǤ礦

ä䤤

ϵ岹ȲкȤδطǡʤǤȡ


ɤơкĹϵ岹Ȳ˻ߤϢդ
ƹͤ뤳Ȥ򤷤ʤΤǤ礦

ʤ夬С̷кѤ˥ޥʥαƶͿΤ
ʬޤǤʤʤξϸ餺ȲϿʤ
ФǤ

ƶХߥåȤˡʡĥӥȤʤȤʤȤ
ˡˤηäФƤʤΤǤ͡

Ǥ⡢ޤäθäƤ뤳Ȥϡ¿οͤƤ뤳
ƱǤ礦顢ʾդޤ

οͤȯˤƤޤޤ


ְ۾ʹƭϡʤ⤱й⤤ۤɼ꤬
Ȥ°פʻǤϤʤкѤηȯŸߤ
ȯŸˤȤäƤ礫ʤȤäƤ餤


̤ơɤιΤȤǰƬˤơȯ򤷤ƤΤ

ˤɤιǤ⡢ʬιפΤ˹ưƤ
ǤäơäƤ餤ʤɤ¾ι񤫤餪ⶵ
šǤ͡

˴ʤΤϡäȡ٤кѻ
ȾʤǤϤʤǤ礦

ƶХߥåȤɤڤȤΤǤ礦

Τˡꥫ񤬲Ȳк˾öŪȤʾ塢ʤ
ʤդʤΤʬޤʤƤܤιͤޤ
ޤʤ֤򤱤ʤФޤ

Ǥ⡢Τ󿶤ǤĶʤȸȡ

ȲˤäƤ⤿餹ﳲˤĤơкѻȾʤϡɤΤ褦ˤ
ǤȤĤʤΤǤ礦


ˡϵ©ʪξΤȤͤ顢ޤ
̾ƤȤɬפʤΤǤ

ʤΤˡ䤵ʤդΩƤΤϡɤ
ȤǤ礦


䤬ȡβʤ夬äƤϺΤ衢Ȥ
ʹƤǤ

Ǥ⡢ϤDzǤǤ

ϵβȲʤǤޤȡ⤦ñˤϸǤʤ
äƤޤޤ

ä顢ϤϤӤ֤٤Ǥ

ǡȥʤιƭ櫓Ǥ줳
ͤǤäơ㤨СˤΨ⤦
ѻߤСʤƤ⤽ʬϥʤ㲼뤳Ȥˤʤޤ

ʤȡ٤Ϻ⸻­꤬٤ʸ
ľɬפˤʤǤ礦ϻߤޤ

ǰΤ˸ޤɬǤΰ夲̣
ޤ

ˡǤȤ³ǤȤȺ⸻ϤΤǤ

ʤ顢ꤢĤȯԤäͤޤ


βʤϾ夬äƤϺ롣¤ȤɤƤ⥬
ƤޤʤȡȲ˻ߤǤʤäΤ
ʡšȴƤ͡å򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤


ä֤˴٤äȤˡӥͥ󥹤
뤳Ȥ¤Ǥ

㤨СädzΤ֤ޤ줿ꡢ顼ѥͥȯ
Ťʤɤǵŵ֤˽Ť륹ɤƥ󥹥
ɤˤȤäѤ褦ˤʤäȡ

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ΤäƤޤ

Υ󡦥ХåեåȻᡣ

ե֥2008ǯǤĹդ1̤˽ǯ֤֤
餭ޤ

ͭ񻺳ۤϡ620ɥȤޤ6ߤǤ͡


Ȥϡ̾ȡ

ΥХåեåȻ᤬ʤȤäƤޤ

 

ƹϡ˥ꥻåäƤȡơ¿οͤ
פäƤʾĹʤΤȤʤǤȡ



already in recession


Perhaps not in the sense that economists

would define it.


֤ꥻåȤäƤ⥨ΥߥȤΤȤ

ΥߥȤꥻåʷʵˤȤϡ2ȾϢ³
¼кĹΨޥʥˤʤ뤳ȤǤ͡

ޤ̣ǤΥꥻåȤϰ㤦ʵϸषƤ
äƤΤǤ


ʤΤǤ

ϡΤ褦˴ƤΤǤ

ǰæޤǤθ̤ʤɤлϤǤȴԤ
Ƥȯˡ̣ĹǤ

ޤХåեåȻϡǥХƥּؤȽ֤ⷫƤ

It's not right that hundreds of thousands

of jobs
are being eliminated, that entire industrial

sectors
in the real economy are being wiped out

by financial
bets even though the sectors are

actually in good health.

ֲοå褦ȤƤ뤳ȤϡȤǤϤʤ
ͻ굡ˤäơʪкѤλΤǤˤؤ餺
ä褦ȤƤ뤳ȤʤȤǤϤʤ

That's the problem

֤줬ʤΤ


 You can't steer it, you can't regulate it anymore.

You can't get the genie back in the bottle.


֤ϤϤԲǽӤФ򸵤᤹Ȥ
ǤʤΤ

 

ХåեåȻȤΤϡХ󥫡ޤ깥ǤϤʤ褦Ǥ

СʤȤäƤޤ


The banks exposed themselves too much,

they took
on too much risk .... It's their fault.

There's no need to
blame anyone else.

ֶԤϡ;ˤ¿ΥꥹƤޤä
¾ͤդɬפʤɤʤ


ޤˤƤ⡢ܤƤͤƹη
⤿Ĥ¿οͤפäƤʾˤȡΤǤ顢
ҤäȤ顢ޡåȤˤƶڤܤǽ뤫⤷ޤ


ȤǡʤơХեåȻϤɤĤ
ΤˤʤǤ礦

ϡĤƤʤȤäƤޤ


I don't have a problem with guilt about money.

֤ΤȤǺᰭʤɴʤ


The way I see it is that my money represents an

enormous number of claim checks on society.

ֻ䤬äƤ뤪ȤΤϡҲФۤΰڤǤ
ȡϸƤΤǤ

It's like I have these little pieces of paper that

I can turn into consumption.

ֻϡξʻڤäƤơѤ뤳
ǤšʤΤǤ

 

If I wanted to, I could hire 10,000 people to do

nothing but paint my picture every day for the rest

of my life.

֤⤷䤬˾Ȥ顢줫ǡ1ͤοͤۤ
οͤ˻γȰʳ˲⤵ʤȤǤޤ

 

And the GNP would go up.

֤ơGNPϡ徺

But the utility of the product would be zilch,

and
I would be keeping those 10,000 people from

doing
AIDS research, or teaching, or nursing.


֤ʪθѤϥǤϡ͡θ
ꡢعǶꡢǸ򤷤ꤹ뤳󤶤뤳ȤˤʤΤ


I don't do that though. I don't use very many

of those
claim checks.

ֻϡΤ褦ʤȤϤޤ󡣻ϡΰڤ¿Ȥ
ȤϤʤΤǤ


There's nothing material I want very much.

ֻ䤬ߤȻפ褦ʪŪʤȤϲʤΤǤ


And I'm going to give virtually all of those claim

checks to charity when my wife and I die.

 ֻκʤȻ䤬ȤˤϡΰڤؤƤ
Τ˴դĤǤ

ǤΩɤʤΤǤ͡


Ǥ⡢ȤǤϤʤƤ뤦ˤΰڤդ
ȡѤºɤ뤳ȤˤʤΤˤȤפޤ

 



ΰڤ򡢼ʬˤ뤳ȤϤʤʡšȺפä
򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ߥ˥ޥࡦƤäơʤΤäƤޤ

ΤäƤ

ΤǤ͡

MAƤäơΤäƤޤ

ΤäƤ


ߥ˥ޥࡦƤʤơؤƤܸǤ͡

ؤƤ̾ĤƤȤȤϡؤƤʻ𤬤뤳
¬ޤ

ǶᡢϷͤ˥ˤĤ׵᤹밭ʾˡήԤä
ޤ˻Ƥ뤫⤷ޤ

ߥ˥ޥॢƤ٤ϡĤ餹Сͳǰפ
⤷ޤ󤬡㤦񤫤餹СʳΤʤˤΤ
⤢ޤ

ΤϡȤСҤ⤬֤äΤǤƹȤ
äơƤ򲡤ꤹΤǤ͡

 

Ȥǡ椬ϤΥߥ˥ޥࡦƤȤäƥեԥٱ
褦ȤƤ櫓ʤΤǤǶᡢߥ˥ޥࡦƤȽ
Ƥޤ

亮ȥ󡦥ݥȤ֥ꥫ͢ѻ˻Ȥ
Τ϶äƤפȽƤȡ

ʤΤǤ礦

äȥåƤߤޤ


This is crazy.

ΤˡäƤȤޤ

⤦Ƥߤޤ礦

Rice cultivation in Japan is notoriously inefficient.

ܤΰϡΤäƤ褦Ψ

However, it is an ancient tradition and, perhaps

more important, the livelihood of a powerful political

constituency.

֤ΤǤꡢޤפʤȤˤϡ
Ū˱ƶϤ̱ȤǤȤȤ

So the country blocks rice imports through a prohibitive

tariff.

֤Τᡢιϡ ⤤ǤƤ͢Ǥ


In the 1990s, Japan agreed to buy a limited amount of
 
foreign rice as a concession to the United States and

other producers.

1990ǯˡܤϡƹ䤽ʳƤؤξȤ
ơ¤줿̤γƤ뤳Ȥ˹դ

 

But Japan didn't agree to eat it: Instead, to protect

domestic producers, it stored the grain, about half

of which is American, in air-conditioned warehouses.

 (Japan gives away a tiny percentage as food aid

each year.)

֤ܤϡ򿩤٤뤳ȤˤϹդʤäꡢ
Ԥݸ뤿ƤߤƤΤ褽Ⱦʬ
ƹ񻺤Ǥꡢ䲹¢ƤܤϡǯȱȤƤ
ΤȤäƤˡ

The stockpile, which is separate from Japan's

homegrown
emergency reserves, peaked at 1.9 million

metric tons in 2006.

ֹ񻺤κ߸ˤȤ϶̤줿Ƥϡ 2006ǯ190ȥã

At that point, Japan's Board of Audit complained

about
the storage costs, so the government began

releasing
25,000 metric tons per month -- to feed

livestock.

֤ܤβ׸ϡߥȤ⤤Ȥʸ
Τܤϡ25000ȥ󤺤Ф褦ˤʤä
ϲܤα¤Ȥơ

More recently, it has considered using the rice

for ethanol,
according to a report by the U.S.

Agriculture Department's
office in Tokyo.

̳ʤ̳ˤС˺ǶǤϡ򥨥Ρ
Τ˻Ѥ뤳ȤƤƤȡ


ơθ塢

This is crazy³ΤǤ


äΤνʬλޤDzȤʸȤϡ
֥ȥۥۡšפȤǤ

Ǥ⡢亮ȥݥȤϡܤȽǤϤʤƹ
ܤˤʸĤƤޤ


But since the Japanese don't want to eat it, perhaps

they could let other people have at least a taste.

ܿͤ򿩤٤ʤȤΤǤ뤫顢ʤ¾ι
ͤ˿٤뤳ȤϤǤǤ

Instead of turning the rice into animal feed or,

even sillier, ethanol, the Japanese should release it

to the world market.

֤Ƥܤα¤ˤˡϡ˶򤫤ˤ⥨Ρ
ѤˡܿͤϡΥޡåȤФ٤

That alone wouldn't cause prices to plummet.

֤ǤϡƤβʤ㲼뤳ȤʤǤ

But it might undercut the export bans other

countries
are trying to sustain.

֤ˤä¾ι񤬰ݻ褦ȤƤ͢жػߤαƶ
뤳ȤǤ뤫⤷ʤ

At a time when so many people in East Asia are

going
without, the United States should not object,

despite
its past insistence that Japan use imported

rice for
domestic consumption.

쥢Ǥۤ¿ο͡ʤƺäƤȤˡ
ƹ۵Ĥ򾧤٤ǤϤʤܤ͢Ƥ˻Ȥ
ȲĥƤȤƤ


It is in no one's interest for wealthy Japan to be

the world's No. 1 hoarder.

֤ܤ¢ԤȤʤ뤳Ȥϡïפˤʤ
ʤΤ


亮ȥݥȤΰոˤⷹİ٤ȤϤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ͤƤߤ顢٤ʪ̳͢դߥ˥
ࡦ٤ΤΤιƤȤ٤Ǥ

 


ߥ˥ޥॢˤĤơJETROΥۡڡ򻲹ͤˤޤ



WTO饦ɤ2001ǯ鳫Ϥ줿ߥ˥ޥࡦȤϡ
1993ǯΥ륰饦ȹդˤ줿1ǯ֤͢
ʤФʤʤʪκ̤Τȡ

륰饦ɤǤϡǰ׼ͳΤ㳰ʤDzפ
դ줿ܤϥߥ˥ޥࡦʳΥִ͢
Dz㳰֡פᡢΥߥ˥ޥࡦ2000ǯ
ޤǯä뤳Ȥ̳դ줿

θ塢1999ǯ٤ꥳDzᡢǽǯ(2000ǯ)
ߥ˥ޥࡦ76.7ƥȥ2001ǯٰʸ³뤳Ȥ
ʤä

DzȤϡ͢¤Τ褦֤űѤ̾
δǤˤ̤͢ĴϤ뤳ȡ

ܤϹƺȤݸ뤿ᡢǰܤȤ͢
ˤ̤͢¤Ƥ1999ǯ٤Dz»
ᡢïǤδǤʧС͢Ǥ褦ˤʤ




ꥫϡܤ͢ƤλȤӤˤФƤΤ
פäå򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

Ϻ᤬åסǸޤ

ǯȤΤϡʬۤ

פˡϤͤ褷Ƥ褦ˡܤ
μʬ˳ʿͤμʬĴȤȤǤ

ϤͤϡΤޤäƤ줿顢٤ݻ
ȤǤʤ⤷ޤ

ͤˤϡݸͿꤹ뤳Ȥɬפʾ⤢
ȤǤ

ߤǯ٤⡢餬ѤΩƤʬʳˡǶ⤬⸻ˤʤ
ƤΤǡΰ̣ǡ˳ʿͤνĴƤ
ȤǤ͡


³Ƹޤ

֤ʤΤˡɤǯκ⸻ǤŤȤΤ


᤬Ȥΰ̣ʬޤ

ʤΤǤ

ǤȤΤϡåԥ󥰤򤹤Ȥ⡢˳ʿͤ
åԥ󥰤Ȥ⡢Ʊ褦5Ψޤ

ȤȤϡ˳ʿͤôƱȤˤʤꡢΤ褦
ʾ٤ǽ᤿Ƕǯκ⸻ˤΤǤС
ʬۤȤƤΰ̣ʤǤϤʤȤȤˤʤΤǤ



Ǥϡɤ⸻ŬˤʤΤǤ礦

Ǥô礬Ť˳ʿͤô礬ڤ
Ǥͤޤ

ޤˡôˡǤͤȤ櫓Ǥ


Υ֥ǡǯͤפꤷơǯ
ؤΰܹԤˤĤƹͤƤߤޤƱ褦ʤȤ򤤤̾ͤ
뤳Ȥ˾򤷤פޤ

Ǥ⡢ͤƤߤ顢ޤ

ϡɤǤɤʤä⸻­äˤʤȡä
Ǥΰ夲äˤʤΤΤ褦ʴ뤫Ǥ

ˡǤΰ夲ʤɸФͤϤޤ

ǤˤĤƤ⡢ΤΤ褦߿褵褦Ȥ褦ʰո
ʹޤ󡣤äѤ顢㤤ؤˤޤǡǶ֤
褦ȤոФǤ

ǡɤƤưˤʤäƤޤäȤȡ


ΤȻפޤ

֤狼ʤ

ܤΤȤǤ顣

줬ҥȤǤ

ֿȤȡ

ΤȤꡣĤ⥢ꥫ衼åѤΥޥͤ򤷤Ƥȡ
ȤˤʤΤǤ

ȤȤˤʤȡˡǤ夲Ȥ褦ʹͤ䡢Ǥ
ٹ礤夲ȤȤˤʤСưȿ
ȤȤˤʤꡢʤȤФˤͦ뤳Ȥˤʤ
ޤ

ˡ

ˡǤ夲ȡݶϤǤϤʤ
ƨƤޤ⤷ʤ

ʤɤȸȡʾդ³ʤΤ̤ʤΤǤ͡

Ǥ⡢ΰ츫äȤ餷̤ͤơŬڤʹͤȸ
Ǥ礦

Τˡư֤ŵʤ͢ФƤ褦ʴȤξ
ˤϡƱ¾Ҥζ褬ΤǡˡǤ⤤ȡ
ˤʤ뤳ȤưפǤޤ

򥢥ꥫμưֻȤʤɤΤǤС
Ǥޤ

Ǥ⡢椬ξˤϡ͢лȤϡӤƾ³Ƥȸ
ΤǤ

³Ƥ뤫餳ǯ¿ۤǰ׼٤ι³Ƥ
ΤǤ

ˤˤؤ餺ˡǤäȲ٤ʤɤ
ΤԻ׵ĤǤ

ϡܴȤñʤŤ˲᤮ޤ


ˡ⤦ġդ٤ޤ

ϡ椬ˡͤƤȶ褷Ƥ櫓ǤϤʤ
ȤǤ

ä˥ӥȤʬǤϡޡåȤΤߤǤ¿
ΤǤ

ȤȤˤʤСζ꤬ʤ褦ʶȳξ
ϡ̤˳ϤΰݻȤȤϥʥ󥻥󥹤ʤΤǤ

Ȥ顢ˡǤΨˤĤƤϡ1ܲɬפʤȤ
Ȥˤʤޤ


Ǥ߿٤夲뤳ȤĤƤϡʤȤ򤹤Ư
ߤӼǤϤʤȤ۽ԤƨƤޤǤ
ʤȤޤ⤪ʵǤ

ΨΤ褦9ʾ⤢̤Ǥʶüʥ
Ǥʤ¤ꡢ٤ʿͤϡɤǤ⤪䤽
Ư³ΤǤ

ޤǶ⤬Ф⤤ȤͳǡܤæФ
ȤͤʤˤȤϻפޤ

ϡƤǤäǤ

ꥫι̱ʤ顢ꥹ˰ܤȡ¾Υ衼åѤι
˰ܤȤۤɵˤʤ餺褬Ǥ뤫Ǥ


ˤƤ⡢

ֺ⸻­Ǥΰ夲פȤޤΤ餺Τ餺˹̱
Ƭ˺ޤƤ褦ʵޤ

 

ǤꤳȤǤΤǤϤʤ̱γ˻
٤ʤΤȴå򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

4˹Ԥ줿FOMCԾѰΤȤǤβĤ
ĻϿ졢ٻߴ¬ޤäƤ褦Ǥ

ܤϡ0.5󡣤Фƹϸ2.0
ޤƹβκ1.0Ǥ

ȤͤСޤƹ϶򲼤;Ϥ

ˤĤۤޤǤϡ0ޤDz٤ʤɤȤ
ФƤޤ

줬ƵѤƤޤ


Ǥϡɤεٻߴ¬ޤäƤΤǤ礦

ۤɷʵˤʤäƤƤȤȤǤ礦
Ȥͻ԰¤ΤȤȤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ʤ˴ŤϤޤ

οΥСʥ󥭵ĹȤͻ狼󤤾֤ȸ
Ƥޤ


õ뤿ˡϡFOMCεĻϿåƤߤޤ

FRBΥȤˬȡֶͻפΤȤǵĻϿ
ޤ

빽ĹΤΤ򤳤ǾҲ𤹤뤳ȤϤǤޤ󤬡פˡ
ηкѤξͻԾξʬϤǡFOMCη
Ƥޤ


In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy

for the intermeeting period, most members judged

that policy should be eased by 25 basis points

at this meeting.

ֺΰѰζͻεˤơؤɤΰѰϡ
25١ݥȰ٤ȽǤ


Although prospects for economic activity had not

deteriorated significantly since the March meeting,

the outlook for growth and employment remained weak

and slack in resource utilization was likely to

increase.

3βʹߡкѳưθ̤礭ϰƤʤ
ΡкĹѤθ̤ϰ夤ޤޤǤꡢޤϫƯ
¤˸


An additional easing in policy would help to

foster moderate growth over time without impeding

a moderation in inflation.

ɲŪϡեǰdz뤳Ȥʤˤ䤫ʷк
Ĺ¥ʤ뤳ȤΩĤǤ

Moreover, although the likelihood that economic

activity would be severely disrupted by a sharp

deterioration in financial markets had apparently

receded, most members thought that the risks to

economic growth were still skewed to the downside.

֤ˡͻԾε޷ʰˤäƷкѳưʱƶ
ǽϾʤäƤΤΡؤɤΰѰкѤβ
ĤäƤȹͤ


A reduction in interest rates would help to mitigate

those risks.

ֶΰϡꥹ¤뤳ȤΩĤǤ

However, most members viewed the decision to reduce

interest rates at this meeting as a close call.


֤ؤɤΰѰβĤǶηԤȤ϶
ηˤʤȹͤ

The substantial easing of monetary policy since

last September, the ongoing steps taken by the Federal

Reserve to provide liquidity and support market

functioning, and the imminent fiscal stimulus would

help to support economic activity.

ֺǯ9ʹߤζͻʴ¡FRBήư򶡵뤷
Ծεǽﲽ뤳Ȥٱ礹֡¤Ӥ˺ɷ
кѳư򲼻٤뤳Ȥˤʤ

Moreover, although downside risks to growth remained,

members were also concerned about the upside risks to

the inflation outlook, given the continued increases

in oil and commodity prices and the fact that some

indicators suggested that inflation expectations had

risen in recent months.

֤ˡкѤβꥹϻĤäƤΤΡѰϡ
ʤ켡ʲʤ³徺ޤեͽۤǶ
δ֤˾徺Ƥ뤳Ȥ򼨤ɸȤ¤顢ե
̤ξ忶ꥹ뤳Ȥˤǰ򼨤

Nonetheless, most members agreed that a further,

modest easing in the stance of policy was appropriate

to balance better the risks to achieving the Committee's

dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability

over the medium run.

֤ʤ顢ؤɤΰѰŪʸѤκ粽ʪΰ
ãǡ˾ʶͻ¤ԤȤΥꥹ
Х󥹤뤿ˤŬǤ뤳Ȥ˹դ

ά


In light of these significant policy actions,

the risks to growth were now thought to be more

closely balanced by the risks to inflation.

֤֤˴դߤСкĹΥꥹϥեΥꥹȶ
դƤȹͤ줿

Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was

no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize

the downside risks to growth.

ֽäơѰϡкĹβꥹĴɽϤ
ŬǤʤȹͤ


Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments

would depend on the extent to which economic and

financial developments affected the medium-term

outlook for growth and inflation.

֤Ķˤơζͻɤʤ뤫ϡ塢
Ѥͻ̤ǤοŸкĹȥե˴ؤ̤ˤ
ٱƶڤܤˤäƤ


In that regard, several members noted that it was

unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response

to information suggesting that the economy was slowing

further or even contracting slightly in the near term,

 unless economic and financial developments indicated

a significant weakening of the economic outlook.

֤ǡ̾ΰѰкѤ®ƤȤϡ
ϤкѤहȤܤƤ⡢ͻ¤뤳ȤŬ
ǤϤʤǤȻŦäȤкѤͻ̤ǤοŸʵ
̤礭ʰ򼨺̤ǤϤ뤬



ޤɬʬ䤹ʤƤʤΤǤˤƤк
βꥹĴ뤳ȤŬǤʤȡѰǧ᤿Ȥ
ȤǤ

ΤᡢкĹΨŪ˥ޥʥˤʤäƤ⡢줬޷
ǧʤ¤ꡢԤ٤ǤϤʤȤո
뤳ȤҲ𤷤Ƥޤ

ȤȤǡٻߤȤߤȤΤǤ

ˡȿФ2̾ΰѰ뤳ȤܤƤ
ɬפޤ

षοͤԤʬϤ򤷤ƤȤפޤ

Messrs. Fisher and Plosser dissented because

they preferred no change in the target federal

funds rate at this meeting.

FisherѰPlosserѰϡβѹ뤳Ȥ
ޤȿФΩȤä


Although the economy had been weak, it had

evolved roughly as expected since the previous

meeting.

ַкѤϼޤߤβʹߡͽۤƤ
ŸȤʤäƤ


Stresses in financial markets also had continued,

but the Federal Reserve's liquidity facilities were

helpful in that regard and the more worrisome

development in their view was the outlook for inflation.

ֶͻԾζĥ³Ƥ뤬ϢήưкϤ
ΩäƤ뤷äȤäʤΤϡե츫̤
ä

Rising prices for food, energy, and other

commodities; signs of higher inflation expectations;

and a negative real federal funds rate raised

substantial concerns about the prospects for

inflation.

ֿͥ륮¾ΰ켡ʤβʤ徺եͽ
¼ޥʥˤʤäƤ뤳Ȥ顢
Υե츫̤Ƥ


Mr. Plosser cited the recent rapid growth of

monetary aggregates as additional evidence that

the economy had ample liquidity after the aggressive

easing of policy to date.

PlosserѰϡޤǤ¤η̡кѤˤϽʬήư
뤵ƤȤȤɲŪʾڵȤơǶޥ͡
饤Ƥ뤳Ȥ󤲤

Mr. Fisher was concerned that an adverse feedback

loop was developing by which lowering the funds rate

had been pushing down the exchange value of the

dollar, contributing to higher commodity and import

 prices, cutting real spending by businesses and

households, and therefore ultimately impairing

economic activity.

FisherѰϡ򲼤ȡɥ¤®Ƥ
켡ʤβʤ͢ʤβʤ徺ƴȤȷפ
¼ٽФ򸺤餹ȤˤʤꡢǽŪ˷кѳư˳Ȥ
۴ĤƤ뤳Ȥ˷ǰɽ


ǸΡFisherѰΰոϡʬ䤹Ǥ͡

 

Ǥߤˤʤȡɥ¤ߤޤΤȡפä
å򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

NYθʪ줬1Х135ɥĤƤޤ

Ȥ褦ޤ

֤áʤΡ

äơ2007ǯ1λǤ1Х50ɥ٤äΤǯ
ν100ɥ٤ˤʤꡢ4ܤˤ120ɥ٤ˤʤꡢ
Ƥޤ줫1Ф135ɥޤǾ夲Ƥ櫓Ǥ


ʤȡ¿οͤͤޤ

֤ɤƤʤ˹ƭƤΡ

ƸƤͳϡ

(1)Ͽ̤αƶǡǥȯѤθμפ
 Ƥ롣
(
2)κ߸̤ͽ۰ʾǤ롣
(3)ƹʵθ®ɥ뤬ޤȸ뤫顣

ʤɤǤ

ĤƸƤ褦ʡŪͳפˡǰ
𤢤ˤƶڤ֤Ȥ褦ʤȤǤ
ͳʤʬ䤹ΤǤǶ褯롢굡⤬礷
뤫ȤΤϡޥʬˤ̤⤢ޤ

Ǥ⡢ͳϤȤ⤢졢ʤƭƤȤ
ϡǯ1鸶ʤξ徺ͽۤƤ굡Ȥϡ
٤Ƥ뤳ȤǤ礦

ĤƤθʤοफͤȡȤƤŪʤɤǤ
ʤ٥ˤޤǾ夬äƤƤï⤬ǧȻפΤǤ
Ǥ⤽ʤȤʤɤʤˡʤ夬ФäѤ굡
ϡ㤤פȻפΤǤ

졢ĤƤܤΥХ֥ξ˻Ƥޤ

Ϥβʤʤ徺ޤȤƤ⡢ޤȤʻŻ򤷤Ƥ
ͤμǤ㤨ʤ٥ޤãޤ

Ǥ⡢ϤβʤϾ夬³ޤ

Τ

Ϥβʤ夬ʤСڶ򤷤ƤǤäΤä
Ǥ

ʬμǤϤȤƤ㤨ʤԤ餪ڤ뤳Ȥ
Ǥ㤦ȤϲǽäΤǤơϤβʤ夬
Сڶñ֤ȤǤʤ٤Фȡ

ǡư˽Фͤ¿ʤСϤβʤϱס夬ꡢ
ϤäȤȤˤʤޤȡϤ㤦
äϤβʤϤޤ夬ȤȤˤʤΤǤ


Ϥ䡢굡ȤϡϤŬʲʤʤɵˤʤʤꡢϤβ
ʤ夬ͳ򲿤õƤƤϡϤ򤵤㤤Τ
ˤʤޤ


θʤιƭ褦ʤȤޤ

ʤ夬ͽۤʪ뤳Ȥˤäפ
ȤΤȡï⤬㤤ꤿʤޤơȡ
ʤ夬櫓Ǥ

ˡȰʳˤʪ㤤ꤹͳޤ

ϡŪ˲ήưȯƤʤǡ֥ץ饤
򤭤ä˹Ԥ줬줿굡⤬Ŭʱ
õƤȤȤǤ

ơޤƹηʵ⤿Ĥǡ³Ȥʤ
ȡɥ¤ȴФȤǤɥ¤ؤɱҤΤˡ
ʪԾѤƤȤ̤⤢Ȼפޤ

ǡϡɤʤ뤫Ǥ

ޤǵ޾徺ȡ⤦ȿžΤǤϤʤȤθ
ФƤƤ⤪Ϥޤ

ΰǡʤιƭˤ٤եɤʤɤ
ߤ굡Ȥϡ٤Фʤ鼫ʬ㤤뤫⤷ޤ
󡣤ʤȡޤޤ夬ȤǤ礦

ʤιƭޤװȤƤϡήư⤿餷Ƥ
žޤˡͻž
Ƥ⡢⤷줬ʵβˤΤǤˤϡФ
¼礹װˤʤꤨΤǡ쳵˸ʤ㲼ˤ
ʤʤ̤ޤ

ͤȡʤȿž뤳ȤϤʤʤͤˤΤǤ
Ĥ礭ȿžͳˤʤꤨޤ

ϡϵ岹ȲкظꥫʤɡޤǾö
Ū٤ȤäƤ񡹤ξ򸺾ɤ
Ǥ

ʤȡޤ֤Ḥ̂ˤʤꡢʤ
ǽ⤢ޤξˤǤ⡢¦Ū
ư˹碌̤Ĵ뤳ȤСʤε
ϵʤǽ⤢ޤ

ޤ¦ϵ岹ȲѶŪбڤȤơ
̤򺣸︺Ƥ褦ư˽ФȡϤ긶ʤ
ߤޤꤹ뤳Ȥͤޤ


ޤΤȤͽۤΤ񤷤ΤǤ

ߤޤǤ˵ƤΤʤǡĤƤ
ʤȤޤ

ϡ֥åΤäȤǤ

ꥫϡ2025ǯޤǤϲ̥ӽ̤³ȸ
ޤ͡

ȤȤǡ17ǯ֤ϡξ̤³ȸäƤ
櫓Ǥ顢ϤꡢʤƭͳˤʤΤǤ



 


ϥХ֥Х֥뤬ƤΤȻפä͡
å򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ǯפǵܳʲ褦ȤƤޤ

Ǥ

ǯ򡢸ߤݸ˰ܹԤɤʤ
Ȥߥ졼󤬤ʤƤΤǤ

ϡɤƤٻޤ

ݸȤΤϡݸǼʤȤʤΤǤ

ϡҤäȤݸǼƤʤΤǤ礦

ޤˤƤݸȤΤϡݸǼʤȤ
Ωޤ

֤Ǥ⡢ݸǼƤ⡢Ҳݸģøš

ϡ⤷ޤ

֤ˡǼƤʤͤ¿ΤǤ硩

Ǥ͡2007ǯ٤ǼΨϡ64Ȥޤ顢ޤ3
1Ͱʾ夬ǼƤʤȤȤǤ͡

֤Ǥ礦

Ǥ⡢ǼƤʤȡǯȤäƤǯ⤬դޤ衣

֤ʡ

ͤáǸ뤳Ȥˤʤ뤫⤷ޤ衣

ʬä㤢ȤΤΤʤΡ

ɤƤǤ礦

֤äơݸǼʤƤ⡢ǯ⤬館ΤǤ礦

ΤˤʤΤǤš

ֲ꤬Ρ

ˤȡ5ξǤ10󤫤20٤ذ
夲ȤФƤޤ

־Ǥ夲Τʡ

Ǥ礦

֤Ǥ⡢ɤƾǤΰ夲ˡʤ˺Ρ׻
øʤΤʡ

¤ϡޤݸǼƤʤͤɤǡʬ
ƻƤ뤫Ǥ

㤨Сޤ̤Ǽοͤˤϡʬٵ뤹ǯ
ۤȤ

֤á̤Ρ̤Ϥ褯ʤ衣ˡ14ˡβʿ

褯¸ΤǤ͡

Ǥ⡢Ϻ̤ʤǤ硣ʤȡסݸǼ褦
ȤͤʤʤäƤޤޤ

֤ޤϤɡΤȤ⸽ߤ˺äƤ
ơݸǼɤǤϤʤͤϤ


βǽϤǤ礦

ܤμҲϳʺȤäƤäƤꡢҤäȤ顢ݸʧ
Ƥʧʤͤ뤫⤷ޤ

֤Ǥ礦顢ͤΤҲǤǤϤʤΡ

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֤Ǥ礦ǸϡݸݤߤƤ餦ʤΤ͡

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֤顢ƤƤΤǤ硩

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뤳ȤΤǤǶ⤬뤸ʤ

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