кѥ˥塼

޸Ρкѥ˥塼̤ưͻ֥Ǥϵ岹Ȳ˻ߤΤúи󾧤ޤиӽиȤϰ㤤ޤߤʴ㤤ΤǤ

2011ǯ06

ˤʤäƤꥷ5ǯ۽̺ˡΩޤ48֤Υȥ饤κ
ˤƤǤɼ155138ϺǤ

졢¸ΤȤϻפΤǤIMFʤɤΩƤΤʤΤǤꥷ㤬Ϥ
򼨤ʤȻٱ³뤳ȤϤǤʤȡ

ǯ򤵤줿1100桼ΥꥷٱѥåβǹԤ롢λⶡͿΤ
ˤϡꥷܤ284桼408ɥˤɲäκ︺ڤǰƤݤळȤ
ˤʤäƤΤǤ

⤷ˡƤ̤餫ä顢IMFEU170ɥλ⤬ޤ줺ꥷ
ܤɬפʻʧǤʤʤäǤȡ

Ǥ⡢ˡƤ̤äȤΰ󤬳ȡȿɤȷٻξͤϰزˤʤä
ΤȤ

Let the prime minister come down here and see if he can live on 300 euros
a month

֤ϢƤơ1300桼Ǥ뤫ɤʹƤߤ褦


ǡη̡Ͼ夬ꡢ桼ϥɥФƾФ夬äȡԾǤϡǥ
ꥷκ꤬褵뤳ȤϤʤȤƤ⡢ʬδ֤ϰ뤳ȤʤǤȤ
¿ΤȤ

⤽ΤϤޤֶ̱ĤȤä礤ĤƤʤʤΤǤꥷܤ
ϡ300桼εϤôֶ̱ĤäƤ餤ΤȤ


ɡϡꥷܤ¿ۤΤ򳰹ֶ̱ԤڤꤿơΤ
֤ʤʤä
ߤ⤬֤äƤʤȶԤϺ롣ʬݻƤޤ⤷ʤ
󡢥ꥷܤȤƤ⤪֤⤷֤ȤǤʤСꥷ
þˤʤ롣顢ɤƤþϲ򤷤Ϥʤ

ǤϡɤʤäΤ

ˡEUIMFȤ礬ơꥷܤˤߤȤˤǡ̱֤ζ
ԤȥꥷܤϰŪ˵ߤƤ롣EUIMFϡꥷܤٱ礹
ˡнк︺Ǥ᤿
Ĥޤꡢꥷ̱ôդ줿̱ϡʾôˤѤͤ
ȸäơȥ饤ǤäƽФƤ롣

奮ꥷϡɤʤΤ

㤨Сꥷ˴ѸҤݤȤꥷʪʤɤ褦ˤʤ
СߤήꥷкѤȤͤ롣
Ȥʤ
С̱˳ѤƤ⡢ꥷкѤݾڤϤʤ

ϲǤ⤤˥ꥷ̥ϤʤơδѸҤꥷˬ褦
PR褦Ϥ򤹤٤ǤϤʤΤ
ȥ饤ʤɤäƤ顢ϤιԼ
ʤʤ롣

IMFΥΥߥȤäơʳ˷кѤʬäƤʤΤŤȻפäå򤪴ꤤפ


͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ꥷǤϤޤ絬Ϥʥǥ⤬Ƥޤϡꥷʪʤθˤꤷ
ƹPBSǤ

ƥ̤ͤܤƤޤ夵˺нХåȤǤޤƤ뤫
IJ񤬥ǥեȲΤ˿۽ƤƤΤǡȥ饤
㲽ΤǤ

ᤴȤϡꥷκ̳ʤγǵޤԤ֥åФٴꤲĤΤ
ٻϺޥDZޤ֤줬ΩޤٴФޤǥ
Τʤˤϻɤ줿Ԥ⤤ޤ

ꥷϡʥǥͭ̾ǤбӤȤĹˤΤǤ

䥮ꥷþδΤƤǤԤμΨ40ĶƤΤ
۽֤Τ˻֤Ƥޤ

Ť˻Ϥޤޤͤο͡ԿʤϤޤ48֤ΥȤϤ30ǯ
ǽƤǤķ褵֤ˤä15ͤοʤʤäƤޤΤǤ

̹Կ͡1ǯФäƤʤΤˡ¶⤬30%ʾΥåȤʤơʤͤʤɤ
櫓ʤ²Τʤ1ͤ2ͤɬǤ


ϡޥƤޤεIJǤɼŪʤΤˤʤǤ礦500
桼εϤ̱IJ280桼εϤǤ˻ٽФΥåȡ


̹Կ͡Ƕʧʤ줳ƯƤͤΤǤϤʤꥷ
μڶϡΤ

Ǥ⡢Υե󥹤ɥĤ䡢¾ïʧʤȤʤΤǤ礦


̹Կ͡ޤꥷ㤬ʧʤȤʤΤɡ˳ʿͤʧͳϤʤ

ΰβɤˤưϡϸʤäΤǤ

˾οäƤ褦Ǥ줬Ǥ礦ζ۽֤ķ褵Ƥ⥮ꥷ
ڶ礭᤮뤿ᡢ̤Ƹ̤ΤȥꥷͤϹͤƤ뤤褦Ǥ




ڶݤȻפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

¹İȸΤ̳̳˵Ѥ줿ǤŤɤ褯ʬޤ͡Ȥ
Τ⡢οͼ̱ޤεİǤ뤫Ǥǡ̳˽Ǥ뤿ˡ̱ޤΥޤ
Ȥ

̳äơʤ̥ϤΤݥȤʤΤǤ礦ˡοͤηߤ顢
ȤȤؼԤȤɾȤȤŤǤΤǤ

ͤκȤɬפäΤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ʤˡޤǤϤʤͿޤȿȯƤΤȤ½аѰĹʤɤϡ
̱¦ˡֿʤפļդȡ

ΤäȤаѰĹļդ롩

ޤˤƤ⡢ʤȤ򤷤ƤСޤϱסȿȯФꡣä顢Ͻ
ˡƤΩʤƤ⤤ȹͤƤΤǤ礦

򤪼ˡžζäĤभøǸäƤޤֻϡ̱ޤ⼫̱
ޤޤ

졦Τ˰ķ뤹뤳ȤΤǤʤȤòƤ褦ʤΤǤȤϿ
ʬ񤬰㤦ΤǤ

򾯤ǤĹꤿˤϷ褷Ƥʤ٤ϤκǤȡǡ¾ϡ
ʤȤ˰ķ뤹뤳ȤΤǤʤȤǤСΤȤʤΤȡ

äޤšϡˡƤΩʤƤ⤤ȹͤƤΤ

פΤǤɤäžǤ⤤褦ʥȡ꡼ƤΤǤϤʤȻפΤ
פˡΧͽ̤СȤƤΰμӤĤȤˤʤꡢƻ롢ȡ
ޤʤʤˡΧ̤ʤСĤޤǤκ¤ˤ뤳ȤǤϤǰ
ȡ

Ǥ⡢XǡΤǤǤֻĤȯԤǤʤȤˤäơܤλ꤬ⷫ
ʤʤ뤽ΤȤǤĤޤꡢܤþ褿

ϡɬ̱ޤǸˤޤɤǤΤǤΤʤС̱ޤǸκ
ޤȿФܤþɤǤޤСƤǤϼ̱ޤ˲դ뤫
ȡ

ä顢ˡƤȰ˼ʬμ򺹤ФɬפϤʤȡդ˸СX
ޤǤϡ̱ޤʤʤˡƤ˻ʤ顢ޤǤϼʬ
κ¤˵¤뤳ȤǤ롢ȡ

Ǥ⡢ҤäȤ᤯Ƥ餤ȹͤơˡľˤǤ̤Ƥޤä

顢ĵİȴꤷơ̱ޤľˤˡ˻ˤ褦ˤƤ
Τ⤷ޤ

ˡʬ̤ܰȤȤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ޤǤơŲȤΤǤ礦

ϸäƤޤʤơʤäƤߤ餽ۤɤΤǤϤʤȡǤ⡢
ϡۤŨʿȤϤʤȤǤפäƤ뤫Τ褦ʤΤǤ

㤢󡢤Ȼפäå򤪴ꤤפޤ

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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ꥫкѤѤäȤʤ褦Ǥ͡Ǥ⡢ϲΤǤ礦
Ǥ⡢ʤɤ餹СѤäȤʤȤ⡢줬λѤǤϤʤȻפΤǤ
ƹΥ饸nprͥƤޤΤǡҲ𤷤ޤ

The latest surveys show that both business owners and consumers
have been losing confidence in the economy. When people feel
uncertain about the future, they just don't want to spend money,
and that lack of spending is making everything worse.

ֺǶηкĴˤСȷбļԤȾԤкѤ˼򼺤äƤͻҤ
ޤ͡ԤƩФȤȤʤʤΤơäƻ
ФʤʤƤʤʤޤ

We're going to zero in on this recent slump in confidence with NPR's
senior business editor Marilyn Geewax. Hi.

֤ǤϤκǶμӼˤĤơƤƤߤ뤳Ȥˤޤ

MARILYN GEEWAX: Hi, Susan.

STAMBERG: What is behind this outbreak of pessimism?

ּӼطʤˤϲΤǤ礦

GEEWAX: Well, as the year began, confidence in the U.S. economy was
rising. A lot of people felt that the recovery was finally starting
to take hold. But more recently that confidence has started to slip
again. Even the Federal Reserve officials this past week, they said
they were less confident about growth now. And the reasons for this
backsliding are different for businesses and for consumers. So let's
just start with businesses.

ǯϤޤäϡƷкѤϾƤޤ¿ο͡кѤϤĤ˲Ϥ᤿ȴ
ƤޤǶĴˤСƤӼ㲼Ƥ褦ǤϢطԤǤ
кĹ˼ƤʤʤäƤȸޤμӼθϡȤȾԤǰ
ʤäƤޤ褺ϴȤ

If you look at the record amounts of cash that corporations have
on hand, you would think business owners and corporate managers
would be feeling pretty fat and happy. They have more than $1.6
trillion in cash reserves. But they're reluctant to take any
chances with that money, which means they're holding off on hiring
more workers; they're not developing new products, new services.
They just feel a lot safer sitting on that cash because they see
so much uncertainty out there.

ִȤμ긵ήư򸫤ȡϡŹνͭԤȷбļԤ٤Ƥꡢ
뤫⤷ޤθͭ16000ɥĶƤޤϥꥹ
뤳ȤƤޤϡȰκѤꤹ뤳Ȥ̣ޤʤ俷
ӥΤγȯʤɤäƤޤԤƩǤ뤿ˡå򤽤Τޤޤ
ƤȤȴƤΤǤ

STAMBERG: Well, whats making them so unsettled about that?

֤ɤ԰¤˴ƤΤǤ礦

GEEWAX: For one thing, no one knows what is going to happen
with this federal debt ceiling. For months now, Congress has
been wrestling with ways to either cut federal spending or
raise the ceiling. But if lawmakers can't reach a deal, that
could trigger fears of a default and that in turn could lead
to a new financial crisis.

ְĤˤϡϢˮܤκ̳Ȥɤʤ뤫ïʬʤȤȡIJϤ⤦
ϢˮܤλٽФ򥫥åȤȤ٤ΰ夲˼ȤǤޤΩˡܤ
İϼǤʤǤޤơΤ˥ǥեȤȤ⤢뤷
ʤСʶͻ˻붲⤢ΤǤ

And even if all of these political problems were finally
worked out somehow, business leaders would still be worried
about real estate and manufacturing in this country.

֤ơˤŪ꤬ɤˤ褹뤳ȤǤȤƤ⡢ȤΥ꡼
ϡιư¤ȤˤʤǰȤǤ礦

STAMBERG: Well, let's start with real estate. The market,
it's terrible. It's really terrible. Whats the latest?

֤Ǥϡư顣ưԾϹ󤤡¤˹󤤡

GEEWAX: Well, just last week, we got a fresh round of reports
that showed that home sales were down and prices are still
continuing to drop.

轵𤬽Ф줿㲼ʤϤʤ³Ƥޤ

STAMBERG: Yeah. And what about in manufacturing?

¤Ȥϡ

GEEWAX: This spring, the manufacturing sector started weakening
again too. And thats really disappointing because manufacturing
had been such a bright spot when the year began. To get a reliable
recovery going, the country needs to see consistent strength in
manufacturing and real estate has to really rebound. Until then,
most business owners are just going to remain wary.

ֽդˤʤäơ¤ϺƤӼ夯ʤϤޤǯϤޤäˤϡ¤Ȥ뤫ä
ˡ˾礭ꤷ³뤿ˤϡ¤ȤӤƶʤФʤ
ơưԾ줬ǤĤȤɬפǤΤȤޤǡȤΥʡϷٲ
³Ǥ礦

STAMBERG: Okay, so that's the corporations. What about consumers?

֤줬ȤξǤ͡ǤϡԤϡ

GEEWAX: Consumers turned gloomy when gasoline prices spiked up
earlier this spring. The prices are now down from May, but
gasoline is still about a dollar a gallon more than it was
last year at this time. And of course food prices are higher, too.

־ԤϡνեʤƭȤǼ嵤ˤʤޤʤ5㲼
ޤޤ1ǯ٤С1ɥʾ⤤ˤޤʤβʤ
⤤Ǥ͡

But really the biggest wet blanket is this lousy job market.
The unemployment rate slipped down to 8.8 percent back in March.
But then you remember, it bounced up again. So it's up to 9.1 percent.

֤ƯԾι󤵤ǤΨ38.8㲼ޤޤ徺ơ
9.1ˤʤäƤޤ

That's a problem even for the people who do have jobs. A slack
labor market means that workers aren't likely to get meaningful
raises this year. Businesses are saying they're still getting
six applications for every job opening, so they don't feel any
pressure to raise wages. And that kind of slow wage growth, it's
just psychologically tough for consumers.

֤ϡŻΤ͡ˤȤäƤˤʤޤϫƯԾ줬֤ĤƤȤȤϡϫ
ƯԤ¾夲ϺǯϤۤɴԤǤʤȤȤǤȤϡ1ͤοФ6ͤ
ԤȸäƤꡢ¾夲ɬ򴶤Ƥޤ󡣤¾夲Υڡ٤ȡ
ԤˤȤäƤοŪ˸Τˤʤޤ

STAMBERG: So raise would change the mood of consumers?

¾夲СԤοѤ뤳ȤˤʤΤǤ礦

GEEWAX: Yeah, I think the number one thing is for people to
get some decent raises. And they also need to see their neighbors
get jobs. They need to see home prices stabilize. But unfortunately,
none of those things seems very likely in the near future.

֤̤ǤϡɬפʤȤϡ¶⤬پ夬뤳ȤǤ˶ο͡
˽ȡʤ夯ȤɬפǤԹʤȤˡȤΤɤľ
ˤϵꤽˤϸޤ

STAMBERG: Please, just a little glimmer, a possibility here.

֤ꤤǤ顢򲼤Ʋǽ

GEEWAX: Well, we did get some glimmers. Lately, gas prices have
been declining with oil prices going down - and thats good. And
on Friday, we had a new report that showed businesses increased
their orders for machinery, electronics, airplanes, and all that
happened in May. And on Tuesday, we're going to get this latest
Consumer Confidence Index report. That'll give us a little bit
of a better idea whether those improvements in gas prices and
this little uptick in manufacturing were enough to cheer us up.

뤤̤⤢ޤʤϡʤ㲼ƤΤǡä㲼Ƥꡢ
ȤǤƶˤϡŻҴطԵʸäȤȯɽޤ
5η׿ǤˤϡԿ괶ؿȯɽˤʤޤߤС
ʤβ䡢¤Ȥξưɤۤɤ褤ƶͿƤ뤫ʬǤ礦


ꥫܤƱ褦ˡܤǥեȤ򵯤ǽʤơšɤä󤤤͡
Ȼפäå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

βĹˤʤȤȤʤȤޤ䤫餷顢ʡ
ؿʤʤäƤƤǤ

֥ᡪ򳫤ƻŻ򤷤ʤȡ

СǶᡢȤǯǤ⤤ʤ褯ʹ褦ˤʤäƤޤ

ǯ

ޤ褯Τʤ̱򵽤ˡǯפʤƸդȤΤǤФ餺
ܤʴ򤷤ơܿͤ⤽εˤʤäƤʤȤäƤΤʹȡ򤱤Ƥ
ޤޤ

ǵ򤷤ķ˻ä뤳ȤȤλŻʤΤ

褷ƤʤȤϤʤϤǤäˡν̡ϡ˽ʤʤƤ⡢ƾģä
ڤʻŻϤǤݡäǤʤƤ⡢ϸξ뻡ʿʻ뻡Ǥˡ
ʤȤĴꡢˡƤäꡢϸοͤľʹʿ
ľǤˡ

褦ʤȤϲҤηбĿؤˤĤƤΤǤҤ˽жФƤʤϡˤ
äȤǤΤ󡢤ΤӤȵܤ뤳Ȥ⤢Ǥ礦Ȥ˵äƤ
餺Żطξ򽸤᤿ꡢŻääƤ뤳Ȥ⤢Ǥ礦

դˡǯˤʤƤȤ򤷤顢褹٤Żλ֤ȤʤʤäƤޤȤ
Ǥ礦
ǤΤǤ

ɡ̱ΤʤˤϡȤϹˤȤŻ򤷤Ƥʤ褦˻פäƤͤ
ȤȤŤϤäꤤСˤƤ̲äƤͤ⤤櫓ǤӤ򤤤äƤ
ͤ⡣

פ˷ˤȤƤϤʤ

֤Ǥ⡢򳫤ʤȡɬפˡΧΩʤ

ä顢äɬפˡΧ̤ʤ

ˡΧ̤ʤǤơ򳫤ƤƤ̣ʤ

ˡƤΩΤǤ礦ĤäƤ褦ˡڤˤʤȡ
ܤ˻ˤʤäƤޤޤ

䡢פΤǤޤǸκǸޤˡƤΩȿФȤΤǤС
ʤ餽ǡŤĤޤꡢܤ˻Ȥ֤ˤʤäƤߤʤȤΤǤС
ϤǶڤ̤äƤȻפΤǤ

ơ⤷ޤޤǰӤƤСͿޤǤ礤˾򤷡ޥ˥եȤʤơ
κƥˤƤޤ̤ΤȤ⤹Ǥ礦

ͿޤϡˡƤˤϤޤ⻿ʤɤǤǤ
ΤʤСˡΧΩʤֻĤȯԤǤʤܤϤʻ
ʧ˻礭ɤʬκٵ뤵ʤʤäƤޤʤΤǤ

ʤȤޤǧȦʤʻ֤顢̱¿Ǥ򤫤뤳
ȤɬǤΤǡޤϲޤɤޤƤޤǤ礦

Ĥޤꡢ8910Τޤ󤬡ǸκǸˤޤˡƤ
ȦȺϹͤƤΤǤơ餳빽Ǥ⤤Ǥ褷
ƼʬμȰˡƤ̤ƲȤϸʤʤȤ򤤤Τϼդ
ͤǤܿͤϸʤʤȤʤƤ⡢ޤޤǤȡ

ǡοXǡˤʤΤ򶲤餯̳ʤͽ¬򰮤äƤȻפ
ΤǤ

9ΡޤǤϤĤΤ

֤פƤš

֤äơޤǤϻ꤬ⷫ³Τ

֤Ǥ⡢٤;͵򸫤ƤʤȡͽۤΤǤʤȯ뤳Ȥ⤢ޤΤǡš

֤Ϥš

ȤȤǡ̱ޤⲿޤȿФ³뤫ơⲿޤǤϤĤäѤäƤ
ȤǤ뤫ƬǷ׻ƤΤǤ

ͤĥꤢ


ʤȤȤƤƤΤǤ礦⤷XǡθߤäƤ
ޤä顩

ܤ˻

Ϳޤޤ⡢ˡƤäФ褦ʤȤ򤹤ΤǤϤʤ㤨Сͥ륮
򺣸ɤ뤫ȤŤεߺѤɤʤƤΤȤϤΤ줭ɤ
ΤȤʤȤ򤷤Ƥ餤ΤʤΤǤ


̳ʤXǡ̱٤Ȼפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

Сʥ󥭵Ĺ2ܤ㵭Բ񸫤פǤޤ
ɤʤȤäƤΤǤ礦ݥȤҲ𤷤ޤ


ON INFLATION TARGET

I have been a longtime proponent of an inflation target.
I think that would help anchor inflation expectations,
it would make it easier to reach our inflation objective.

ϡե쥿åԤǤ롣
ե쥿åȤϡͽۥեΨ夫ΤΩġ
ʤСʪΥȥ⤷䤹ʤ롣

At the same time it is not at all inconsistent with our
employment objective because keeping inflation low and
stable and keeping inflation expectations low and stable
actually gives the Fed more leeway to respond in the
short-term shocks to the economy.

եΨڤͽۥեΨ㤯ޤİꤵ뤫ȤäƸ
Ѥɸ̷⤹ȤΤǤʤषûŪˤʤˤ
ȤͿƤ롣

So I think it is something that is worth considering.
In terms of authorities, I would just say that there
are multiple models around the world....

ե쥿åȤϡƤβͤ

I don't think there's a real barrier to setting a target.
However it is very important that first, that we
communicate to the public what we are doing...

ե쥿åȤߤ뤳Ȥˡξ㳲Ȥϻפʤ褺
Ϲ̱ˡ桹äƤ뤳ȤΤäƤ餦Τ衣

We need to make sure that it is well understood both
by the public and by Congress that having a target would
not mean that we are abandoning the other leg of the dual
mandate.

ե쥿åȤߤ뤫Ȥäơ⤦ĤɸĤޤѤΰݻ
ȤɸǤϤʤȤ򡢹̱ȵIJΤäƤ餦Ȥ
ɬס


Under any circumstances it would be important to take
the pulse of Congress. We might have the legal authority
to do this, but I think we do need some buy-in from
the administration and Congress to take that step....
There's nothing imminent, but again we will continue
to discuss this and as appropriate we will be consulting
about it.

ǡʤǤ⡢IJΰոǧ뤳Ȥס
ե쥿åߤˡŪ¤ϤΤ⤷ʤڤӵIJ񤫤
ξäƤȤɬפȹͤ롣
ޤǤϤʤ³Ƥ


ON TEMPORARY VS LONGER-LASTING SLOWDOWN

Part of the slowdown is temporary and part of it may
be longer-lasting. We do believe that growth is going
to pick up going into 2012 but at a somewhat slower
pace from what we had anticipated in April. We don't
have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth
is persisting .

ʵ®ϡϰŪʤȤǡĹŪʤȤ
ʤ
2012ǯˤƷʵϳ礷ƤȻפ4ͽۤڡۤɤǤ
ʤ
ηʵ®³ƤΤˤĤƤΤɤڤƤʤ

One way to think about it is that maybe some of the
headwinds that have been concerning us -- like weakness
in the financial sector, problems in the housing sector,
balance sheets and deleveraging issues -- some of these
headwinds may be stronger, more persistent than we thought.

ͻμ夵ꡢХ󥹥ʻƤΰˡ
Хåδᤷʤɤαƶ桹פäƤʾ礭
Ĥ餫⤷ʤ

I think it is an appropriate balance to attribute
the slowdown partly to these identifiable temporary
factors but to acknowledge the possibility that some of
the slowdown is due to factors which are longer-lived
and which will be still operative by next year.

ʵ®ͳϡϤŪʳǧǤΤȡޤ
ǯʹߤ³褦ĹŪװˤȹͤ뤳ȤŬǤ롣


ON LABOR MARKET; DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NOW AND LAST AUGUST

As of last August we were essentially missing significantly
on both sides of our mandate. Inflation was low and
falling and unemployment look like it might be even
beginning to rise again. In that case the case for monetary
action was pretty clear in my mind. I think we are in
a different position today, certainly not where we would
like to be but closer to the dual mandate objectives
than we were at that time. So, again, the situation is
different today than last August but we will continue
to monitor the economy and act as needed.

ǯ8Ǥϡ桹λ̿ǤʪΰȡѤγݤȤ
ĤɸˤĤơɸ¸ǤʤǤ
եΨ㲼ƤΨϺپ夬뵤ۤ餢ä
ǤϡͻƤϤϤäꤷƤ롣
ǶǾѤäƤ롣ĤƤɸ˶ŤƤ롣


ON ASSET PURCHASES

With respect to additional asset purchases, we haven't
taken any action, obviously, today. We will be reviewing
the outlook going forward. It will be a Committee
decision. I think the point I would make though in terms
of where we are today versus where we were say in August
of last year when I began to talk about asset purchases,
is that at that time inflation was very low and falling.
Many objective indicators suggested that deflation was
a nontrivial risk and I think that the securities purchases
have been very successful in eliminating deflation risks.

ɲäλ񻺹ˤĤơ֤ϺѤʤä
ǯ8ˡĹĤ㤤ꤷȤˤϡʪ㲼Ƥ
ȤȤߤ礭ۤʤ롣
ǥեΥꥹϡǯʳǤϾʤä
ǥեΥꥹȸǤϡĹĤ㤤
ä

ON GREEK CRISIS

I think the Europeans appreciate the incredible importance
of resolving the Greek situation. If there were a failure
to resolve that situation it would pose threats to the
European financial system, the global financial system,
and to European political unity I would conjecture as well.
So yes, we did discuss it and it is one of several potential
financial risks that we are facing now.

ϡꥷβ褬פǧ
⤷бвΡΤζͻƥ˰ƶ
Ϳ롣
ƱΤȤƤˤƶͿ롣

But again we are mostly just following the situation closely
and making sure that as best we can that our own institutions
are as well positioned relative to sovereign debt in the
so-called peripheral countries.

ƹζͻؤչȤκֻˤɤٴؤäƤΤ
ǧǡɬפ֤뤳ȤǤ褦˻֤ե

ON REDUCED PACE OF RECOVERY

The reduced pace of the recovery partly reflects factors
that are likely to be temporary. In particular, consumers'
purchasing power has been damaged by higher food and
energy prices and the aftermath of the tragic earthquake
and tsunami in Japan has been associated with disruptions
in local supply chains, especially in the auto sector.
However some moderation in gasoline prices is now
a prospect and the effects of the Japanese disaster and
manufacturing output are likely to dissipate in coming
months. Consequently...the committee expects that the pace
of economic recovery will pick up overcoming quarters.

ʵ®ͳΰĤϡŪʤΤˤʤǽ礭
ԤιϤϡʤȥͥ륮ʤιƭڤȤαƶ
ˤ륵ץ饤ؤαƶˤä˼äƤ롣
ʤϡǶ夤ƤƤꡢޤȤαƶޤ븫̤
Ǥ롣
FOMCȤƤϡλȾʹ߷ʵΥڡ®ޤȤߤƤ롣


ǸޤǤɤĺͭ񤦤ޤ

Сʥ󥭵Ĺϡʵ٤ƤͳʬʤƸä
褦Ǥפˡץ饤ɤ̤ǡŪϤƤ
ȤȤ露ƤΤǤϤʤΤǤ礦

פˡʼɤΤ¤ϤСξԤ˹
Ϥ˳Ƥ⡢ɤɤ󳤳äƤ뤫ʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ǧƤޤȡդƤʤۤäƤ뤳ȤǤ
ŸʤȤȤʤΤǤ͡

ꥫŪϰ̤ΤϡʤȤǤ礦

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ĹĹäƤޤ

2006ǯˤο˽ǤѲ򴶤Τƴطζä٤ä
طϺǶˤʤäĹޤäΤסƴطϥʿΤʿ¤˱ɤ
Ǥ³

Ⱦ̤ȤơȾȯϡĤηޤʸǤǤĤޤꡢƹθ
ƹˬ䤷Ȥ⡢ХΤϡäƤޤŤʳǤ⡢ܤ
˸äƤĤ⤽ʤΤǤ

ƱϡϰΥʡȡǤ롢ȡ

ȯɤߤ뤫ŨꤹΤǤСȿȤ
ǤʤС줫ƷɤФꡢϻפͽ򸺤餹褦ʤȤϷ褷ƹͤ
ƤϤʤʤȡȾжƤ褦ʤΤȤ⡣

ӤǤȤ򼭤ᤵ褦Ȥưǡϡ
Ӥ뤳ȤɬˤʤäƤ褦ʡ

ǡïΤͤȤ㤨Сޤ˻᤬ͤθȤ
⤫ǤޤˤʤΤ⤷ޤ󤷡Ťɤ̱ο͵Ԥˤ
褦ʷϵǤʤΤǤŹɤʤɤ濴ΤŪȤŪμͭ
̤äƤΤοͤĹǤ

ޤޤȤʿͤ˻פΤǤˡˤʤȤơ礭ȿͳ⤫Фʤȡ
äʬפȡ

ǼʤȤΤǤ˻ƴط˴ؤͤ
ǤᤤáοͤϡƱФΤΤªƤ褦ˤפʤΤǤ줫
ƷФƤʤɤȸȤϹͤʤȡʬϤǼʬ뤳ȤǤʤ
ܤƷϤ뤳ȤǤʤʤ顢ɤäƹΤȡ

Ǥ顢˻ιͤ˽Сʤʤפͽ򸺤餹ʤɤȤȯۤ⤫Фʤ
Ǥ
Ǥ⡢˸碌СΤȤ¿

ȤΤ⡢¸Τʤ⤷ޤ󤬡ꥫܼΡǯɱäƤʤ
ǡܤФƤϡפͽ뤳ȤݤƤΤǤ

¸ΤǤΥꥫɱäΤϡ줷ʤΤǤ
ϡܤϡܤϺ줷ʤΤʤȤϤޤǼڶ¿
褦ʾ֤ˤʤäƤ뤫ʤΤǤ顢IMFʤɤ⡢ܤǤͤšƸ
Ǥ

ˤʤŤĤޤꡢܤκѤʾˤʤ뤳ȤΤʤ顢ꥫ
ܤ˻פͽФ褦˰Ϥ򤫤ƤǤ

פΤϡšܤϤ󶡤ƤΤ顢Ϥ򥢥ꥫäƤ⤪
ʤȻפΤǤ줬Ϥ󶡤ˤޤǤǤ顢ФƤȦϤ
Ǥ

ޤˤơƱʿϰФȸƤ

ǤϡܤϤɤ٤ʤΤ

ϡϤäƤ⥢ꥫȤδط򥼥᤹ΤϤʤʤ񤷤ȻפΤǤ⤷
ʹư˽Ф褦Τʤ顢ꥫϡפȰȽǤ̵ͭܤ
Ϥ򤫤ƤǤ礦ˤʾޤƤꡢξ󥳥ȥǤ
Ǥ顢¦Ѥư˽ФС㤨夵뤳Ȥ餤ưפˤǤƤ
ޤΤʤΤǤ

򼭤ᤵ褦Ȥưޤš줬ʤʤ¸ʤΤ⡢
ꥫ¦᤯Ƥ餤ȻפäƤʤȤĤͳǤ뤫⤷ޤ
Τʤ顢ϡȷιư¿ؤϤǤ뤫顢ȡ˴ؤƤ⡢
ƹΰո̵뤹褦ʤȤϸʤʤäפͽ³ƤƤ뤫
顢ȡ

ääޤƴطɤäƹԤ٤

Τˡܤϡ٤Ϥ¸ߤʤȡܤΰ뤳ȤǤʤΤϡΤȤ
ꡣǤ⡢褬ηǤäƤΤ

⤷ιΩǡ褬ʹǤΤǤС뤳Ȥ⤤
礦Ǥ⡢ǤСηٻ򤹤褦ʷ⤬äƤ⤤Ǥǽʸ
ɤιФƤ⡢Ω˹ưηٻη⤬Сȿ
ФܤФΤ礤˷빽ʤСʤɤ褷䤹ʤ뤫⤷
ޤ

¤ˤϡʤΤ¸ߤʤϢȤäƤ⡢ؤ̾Ф¸ߤǤ

ǡϹͤǤä顢פȤϴطʤʿ¤Τ˹ư롢
ٻ⤬äƤ⤤ΤǤϤʤȡ

Ǥ⡢Ǥäơʤʤ¸ʤΤǤΤȤСȤ
ֵä֤ˤʤäƤ뤫ʤΤǤβߤʤΤʤΤǤٻ
ɤ¸ߤ顢Ǥ褦ʤȡ

ʤȤäƤ뤫餤ĤޤǷФäƤ⡢褬뤳Ȥʤ

ޤΤˡΤ褦ȿǤˤƤ⡢ľ褬ʤʤǤʤǤ礦š
Ǥ⡢Ωηٻ¸ߤΤǤСǵƤϰʶ⾯𤷰פ
ʤȤΤǤ
ä顢ܻؤ٤Ǥ礦ơƹη
Ⱦʬ٤οͰ򤽤ٻ뤳ȤˤǡǤ礦ä顢
⤪ФפʤΤǤ

ˡΤ褦ƹη⤬̾ΤǤСȤ뷳ͤФȤʤ
Τǡŷͤ򾮤ʤΤޤ뤳ȤǽǤ

άŪ߷ôطˤʤƱΤ򤹤뤳ȤʤԲǽǤǤä顢
濴Ȥʤäٻ֤ưƤϤɤǤ礦

ʤä顢Ʊ̾βܤô餦ɬפʤʤΤǤܤϡ
ʿ¤¸뤿ΡΩŪٻ˶Ϥ뤳ȤˤʤΤǤ줳ܤη
ˡȼȻפޤ


񤬥ưΤϤ褯ʤȻפå򤪴ꤤޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

Ϥγդʲˤʤޤ

  Baa3 B1

ޤȸǤ礦Ǥ⡢쵤4ʳ⡪

ĤƤϡĹ̳饹Ƥʿ襯饹Υ󥯤ʤȻפäƤΤĤδ֤ˤ
Ĺ饹ФƺϤޤҥä褦ʡ

äϡܿƱΤǤʬˤϤǤ񤫤ΤϤɤʤΤ

Ǥ⡢ʤȤ򤤤äƤ after festivalǤϤʤIt's too late

ޤޥߤ⤳ʤȤ礭夲ϤʤΤǤ礦͡äơϤγ
ͭƤͤ¿Ǥ礦Ťˤɤ󤸤ƤΤť󥯺ĤˤʤäƤޤޤ
ʤƤȤƤʤ
֥󥯺ĤäƲǤ
֤Ǥ顢󥯤ʺķ
֥󥯤äơ
֥ӥå
֤󥯥᡼Υ󥯤

ǡƥ󥯺ĤˤʤäƤޤäơƥץˤϤɤʱƶΤ

Ťˤϡ650ɥκ̳롢ȡǡʬϱ߲߷Ƥκ̳ǤäƱ߷Ƥʬ5
ߡ

ǡźĤϡĤƹĤȤʺϡϤ0.1٤ǤäΤ34
褻뱩ܤˤʤäƤ롢ȤȤ⡢ҺĤȯԤǤΤǤФޤλǡ
̤ȯԤϤǤʤȡ
ޤ餳Ĥͻ³Τꤤ⤹櫓Ǥ礦

5ߤμڶҤˤޤޤǤ3ʬ¿ʧȤˤʤä1500ߡ4ʬ¿
ʤä2000߿ǤޤǤ

äǤ1ǯ֤˲ԤФоפˤɤŨۤɤǤ줬ʧôä
Ǥޤȡ

ϡ⤽⤪ߤƤȤʤʤäơ꤬ⷫդʤʤ뤫ŤȤȤ
ޤƤ櫓ʤΤǤ

ŤäǶ̤ǤšʤȤޤŵ;夲˷ӤĤƤޤǤ礦

ޤޤŤ»γۤǤޤʤǤפʤ̤⤢ΤǤ
»ꤷơפڤäƻٱ򤹤ʤ餹롢þ֤ʤ餽
롢ȡƩݤˡơϤζˤپ褿ﳲԤؤ
ڤ뤳Ȥʤ褦ȤɬפǤ

δطԤʬȽǤʤȤڤǤ

ʤþ֤ȤäƤ⡢٤ƤʤȤ̣ƤǤϤޤGM
νȻ褦ʤΤˤʤǤ礦


ϤλٱδŪʹͤ򤷤äꤹ٤ȹͤå򤪴ꤤפ
ޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ꥫŪºŤΥ󥿥ƥƥ֡󥰡ġQE2ˤȤΤä
ǽλͽʤΤǤš¸ΤǤ

ޤ桹ܿͤϡϿ̤ȤˤƸȯˤȡ⤦ɤǤϤޤ󡣥ǥե
ǥեȤޤäƤΤϲʤΤǤ礦
Ȥȸȯλ
αƶ;ˤ礭ȤȤ¾ʤޤ
ޤդؤСǥեʤƤäǤΤΡޤ礷äǤϤʤäȤ
ȤˤʤΤǤ

СǥեæѤ뤾夲軰ƻȤ̾GDP5
ȤɸǤƤǤܿͼȡʤȤ⤦ä˺ƤΤǤ
ʤǤ礦

Ȥ̳εͿΧ1䥫åȤꤷơɤʪ夲뤳ȤǤΤǤ

ޤˤƤȤȤԡøȤкѤˤĤƻפĤȯƤޤ
β¿Ȥ

ʥ᤬ɤʶ줿Ǥΰ夲ǸȿФȯƤޤΤˡ֤ɤ
ˡšפϤ褯ޤ󡣤褯褯ǡ̱ǼǤʤȡ
ʥϡϡַʵ¤Ωľ뤳Ȥͤ٤פȤäƤ뤬
ʤȤ顢οͤŤʤƻפƤޤΤǤ

ϡʵ¤Ωľ뤳ȤͤȤ

ǤϤʤȦǤ˹ͤȤʤΤǤ줭λ򺣸ɤäƤ
줯餤λ֤Ȥɤ줯餤Τ򤫤ƽ뤫᤯ꤹɬפΤǤ
ȤܤŻ뤹٤Ǥ٤ǤǡΤ褦ϤǤϽ٤ŻΤ
ˤϤǤ顢˸¤лŻʤȦʤΤǤΤʤСƤ
Ƥ⡢ʤ줭뤫顢ŻϤ롢ȡ⤷ʤΤȤС
ϤϫƯϤȻפΤǤ

ʤȤͤȡֺϷʵ¤Ωľ뤳ȤͤšפʤƤ줬ǡ
Ϥ礯ΤʬȤΤǤ

äʬޤƹŪºϤɤʤΤǤ礦

ƹθ饸ǸäƤݥȤȤʤ뤳ȤҲ𤷤ޤ礦

 Last fall, with the U.S. economy growing at a tepid pace, the Federal Reserve
made an unprecedented move. It began buying up long-term government
bonds from investors as a way of pouring money into the economy.

Ϣϡǯ̤ͭμʤǤäƽФĹĤ㤤졢кѤˤ

Many economists say the program probably helped stimulate growth -
at least a little - now, it's supposed to expire, and Fed officials say it won't
be coming back.

¿ΥΥߥȤϡΩäȸäƤ뤬Ͻλ뤳Ȥˤ
äƤ롣ϢδطԤˤСꤹ뤳ȤϤʤȡ

 When you flood the economy with money, reducing the long-term
interest rates like mortgage rates, housing and mortgage markets
are obviously helped. Also, with more liquidity in the economy, the
value of the dollar declined, and that promoted our exports.

Ծˤ򤸤֤ȡζΤ褦Ĺ㲼
˾Ωġˡɥβͤ͢Ф¥ʤ̤⤢롣

Not everyone agrees that QE2 has had its desired impact. The
economy grew in the months after the program was started, but that
could have been due to other factors.

ƤοͤQE2θ̤ǧƤǤϤʤQE2ѸʵϤ褯ʤä¾
װƶƤǽ롣

by buying treasury bonds, the Fed is essentially lending the government
money. That's not a big problem now, because interest rates are low and
there are plenty of people who want to buy U.S. government debt. But he
worries that if conditions tighten, the Fed may come under pressure to buy
more debt as a way of helping the government solve its budget problems.
That, he says, could lead to higher inflation.

ĹĤϢ䤬㤤뤳ȤǡϢ䤬ܤˤߤƤ뤳Ȥˤʤ롣
ס­㤤褦˰Ϥ붲줬뤬ʤХեˤʤ붲⤢롣

As of now, QE2 is set to expire at the end of the month. In a speech in
Atlanta this month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that the economy
faces a number of headwinds, like higher oil prices.


QE2ϡǽλͽꡣΥȥ󥿤ǤΥԡǡСʥ󥭵ĹϡкѤ
ϡʤιƭΤ褦ʵᤤƤȯ


Mr. BEN BERNANKE (Chairman, Federal Reserve): In this context, monetary
policy cannot be a panacea.

Сʥ󥭻ȯֶͻǽǤϤʤ

Bernanke's words were a clear signal that the Fed is done trying
extraordinary measures like QE2 - at least for a while.

Сʥ󥭻ȯϡQE2Τ褦ʰ۾ϽʤƤäϡŤȤΤʥ
ʥǤ롣

Even if Bernanke wanted to extend QE2, he probably couldn't right
now. QE2 was highly controversial with some other Fed officials, and
they probably wouldn't vote to extend it.

˥Сʥ󥭵ĹQE2ĹƤ⡢ϤǤʤǤQE2θ̤ˤϢ
طԤδ֤Ǥ¿ơϱĹˤϻʤǤ

some Fed officials believe the benefits of QE2 have been less than
clear, and, at any rate, they're far outweighed by the risks. So an
attempt by the Fed to stimulate growth is ending - just at a time when
the economy is showing new signs of weakness.

QE2θ̤ϤϤäˤʤȿϢطԤ롣ˤƤ⡢ꥹ礭
ȤǤȡȤȤǡϢˤʵɷϽȤʤ롣кѤβƤ
ƤȤˡ


ȤʤʷϵʬˤʤäǤ礦

ˤƤ⡢ĹĤ㤤ߤƤ⡢ޤ˾夲뤳ȤϤʤΤǤϤʤǤ

Ȥ顢ޡåȤͿƶŪʤΤαޤǤ礦


ꥫĹĤ㤤ʤƤäƤΤȻפäå
ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ȤˤĤä礤򤷤Ƥޤ

ܤϣҤĿͤ澮ȤƷʤɤΤ˿ʼڶ⤬ɬפˤʤȤ
ťפ˴ؤطν򳫤ٱꤷޤ

֤ˤޤȡΩˡͤͻؤл񤷤ߤ뿷ʥեɤβǽ
澮Ȥκĸͻؤ㤤äꡢл񤷤ꤹȤƤޤˤꡢ
澮ȤˤȤäƤϡڶΰ줿ꡢֺѴ֤Ĺʤ뤳ȤǷֺ
ۤ㤯ޤ褦ˤʤåȤȤȤǤ

֤ˡեɤ鿷ͻ뤳ȤǤޤ

ָĿ͸ǤϡֺѤȽ䤹뤿ῷʥɥ饤ꡢ˱
ƥȽͻؤФƤǤڸ뤳ȤƤȤƤޤ


֤ơ̱ޤϼ̱ξޤȶĤԤܤꤷٱ򼨤
ȽκߤʤɡڤǹդޤҤ澮Ȥκĸͻؤ
ȤߤˤĤƤϡ̱ξޤȿ٤ȼĥơĴ
Ĥܤηܻؤư³Ĥ뤳ȤˤʤޤסNHK)


ϡȤѤʤޤ󡣲ΤʤСɤäƤ뿶򤷤Ƥ褦ˤ
ʤʤΤǤ˺äƤʤСɤˤƽƾ夲뤳ȤɬפǤ
ƱϤΤ˹񤬲ƽ٤ɤʬʤΤޤǽ褦ʤȤ
ƤϤޤ

Ǥ⡢Ȥϸܤ顪ʤƻפäƤΤǤϤʤǤ礦
ʤȤϤν̱ϤǾäƤͤ乩бĤƤ͡դ
Ȥοͤ͡ʤФʤŤȡ

ϤǤŪʹͤ˰¸ϤʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ťΤ餢ǤΤǤȤﳲť
꤬ȯǤϤʤΤǤ

顢ɬפ֤äƤǤʤΤˡ򤷤ʤǡˤ⼫ʬ
ҼԤΤ˲⤷Ƥʤ褦˸ΤǡšפкȤưƤ
ŤĤޤӤŤäƤΤ褦ʡ


ƷβǽΤΤȤǤʤΤʬơŤʤɤȤäƤ⡢˺Ʒβ
ǽСԤ⤽ݤ򸫤ǤϡƷβǽ«ʤȤ
򡢼ڶƤäƽΤΤɤȤȤʤΤǤ

󡢶ԤǤоݤʤСڶǤʤΤǤȤ
¦ڶƤ⡢ξǤϤȤƤڶǤʤȤ餤ˤ狼뤫
ʤΤǤäơԤϤߤξǤ餽Τ餤ʬǤ

ǤϡζԤưʤΤ

ȤʬäƤʤΤǤǤﳲФƤǤôݤ
ȤäƤϷʪβͤϥष줭űѤʬҤäȤ
ʥβͤˤʤäƤ뤫⤷ʤΤǤ

顢ڤꤿ͡ѤǤߤԤäƱ褦ѤǤ
Ǥ顢äʤʤʤޤʤʤΤǤǤ⡢ȤϤʤȤȡǡ
ʤľܴطƤ⤤ʤζԤ򴬤ꤷơťեɤʤɤ餻ơԳ
ô褦ʤɤȡ

Ǥ⡢δǡȤɤʹ򸫤뤿ˡʤȤ򤷤ƤϤʤΤ
ΤʤСˡȤΤ٤ȤǤϤʤǤ

ϡťäƤƤȸäƤǤϤʤΤǤ̱Ƕ
ôƤ⤤ȸΤǤСϤǼǤǤǤ⡢̱¿ϤޤǤ
פäƤޤñ˶ԤФơȤƤ衪ȡǤ

ˤƤ⡢Ϥοͤ餷顢ڶƤ館ꡣǤ⡢ä顢
Ʊ褦ťƤͤϡƱ褦˽Ƥ館Τȡ

򴰺Ѥ˲Ȥʤʤä褦ʿͤϡƱ褦ݤ򸫤Ƥ餦ȤǤΤȡ

ˤǤ͡šԤΥƤȡ٤϶Ԥˤڤꤺ˼ʻDz
Ƥ褦ʿͤϵߤʤ̤ˤʤΤǤϤɤʤΤǤ礦˶ԤǤ
ʤȤ顢ĿŪˤڤƲȤƤͤϤɤʤΤǤ礦

ȡԸʿȤ꤬ʤΤǤ

Ǥ顢դΤȤ褯ǡϹ̱ΰոäǹհƤޤȤ
ΤǤǼ⤤櫓ǤŤȤˤǤ⤤ŤȤȸ᤮ǤӤŤ
ΤιհƤܻؤƤ뤳ȤʤʤΤǤ

ϡʬťˤĤƤɤͤΤƥӤṉ̀ʤ٤ǤϤ
Ǥ礦
줳ΤŻΰĤǤ褦ʵΤǤ

⤷ФԸʿˤʤȤ䡢ïôΤȤ䡢⸻ˤĤƤ
ΤȤˤĤơʹ̱ͤ˼ȤޤǤʤȤΤǤ
СʬǤϤʤȤȤˤʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦


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