кѥ˥塼

޸Ρкѥ˥塼̤ưͻ֥Ǥϵ岹Ȳ˻ߤΤúи󾧤ޤиӽиȤϰ㤤ޤߤʴ㤤ΤǤ

2011ǯ12

ξˤĤλ礤ιդ˴ؤƤϡʲ᤬Ωޤ
ǤĤϤäꤷƤ뤳ȤΤǤϡ񤬿̱ϰ̤äȹ褦ȤƤ롢ȤȤǤ

̱ϰ̤ȤȤϡɤȤʤΤ̱βͤڤ夲ȤȤʤΤ

ʤȤͤƤΤǤϤʤΤǤݡष̱βͤϽ˾夬äƤФΤǤäơ®˲ͤ夬뤳ȤǧƤޤС͢лȤǷƤޤǤϤʤȡ

̱ϰ̤ȤΤϡ̱ιݲʤȤȤǤΤǤǤϡ̱ιݲȤϲ

ñ˸Сι񡹤̱äͭ褦ˤʤꡢǰפη̲ߤʤɤȤƿ̱äȻѤ뤳ȤˤʤΤ̣ƤΤǤ

̤ηкˤΤ夬ä񡣥ꥫΥѡޡåȤǥѡȡϳƲƤߤСʤǤäѤˤʤäƤ뤳Ȥ˺ʤ˶ä
ʤΤǤݡϤäȤʤɤʤΤǤ¤ʤȴˤʤɹͤʤʤäƤ롢ȡǯΥꥹޥץ쥼ȤȤȤƤ⡢̤Τ㤬줿ȤǤ礦

θϼԤ˾ϡȾʬã줿ȸäƤΤǤ

ĹĹλ塣褦䤯˶ĥ褦ˤʤ뤳ȤǤȡꥫ˰֥Τ򶡵뤷ƤΤ񡣤ơꥫ˰֤ߤƤΤ񡣴饢ꥫ˰Ϥ򤫤褦ȤƤ⡢٤ΤǤΡڶ⤬ФܵǤΤʤɸΤ

ʸȤϤݤȸäƤΤϡ𤬤褯ʬäƤʤȤ
ʤΤǤ

ϤäƤ⡢˾ϤޤƤ¸줿ǤϤʤΤǤʤλǸ褦ˤʤäȴ򤷤ȤδϡܿͤĤƷиΤƱǤ礦ܿͤեꥫʤιԤȤˡפ⤫μ֤äƤʤ򸫤ơŤܤϷкȯŸ뤲ȴΤʤΤǤ

ʤǸ褦ˤʤäΤǤ̲ߡĤޤ̱ϤޤޤƤȤϸʤΤǤĤޤꡢμʤ˾ϡο̱ڤ뤳ȤˤΤǤơΤν塹ȿʤƤ롢ȡ

ΤȤο魯뤳ȤǤСʥСˤʤ롣GDPꥫɤĤˡȤƤ̱ϰ̤夲ɬפ롣椬ǧ̱ˤȡ

ǤϡɤΤ

褺ϡϥɥˤѤ뤵Ƥ봷Ԥ򡢾IJᤵ뤳ȤɬפǤ롣ĤޤꡢǰפηѤ̱ƤǹԤ褦ˤꡢ̱Ƥλܼȯ
ȤɬפǤ롢ȡ

㤨СΰήȤ̱ƤκķڤȯԤ褦ʤȤäȳȯ
ǤʤϡԤ߽Ȥƿ̱ƤĤͭ뤳Ȥ¥ʤ뤳ȤǤʤ

ơäƿ̱ɥ褹Сο̱ȯԸ򰮤äƤɤ̲ߤȯԸ򰮤뤳Ȥˤʤꡢ̾¤Ȥˤʤ롢ȡ

줬Ƥ륷ʥꥪǤΤǤ礦Ǥϡ衢Υʥꥪϼ¸ǽΤ

˾ˤ礭̷⤬ǤΤǤ

̱ݲȤȤϡι񡹡δȤˤ̱Фפ뤳Ȥʤˤϼ¸ʤɤʤΤǤ

Ǥϡɤä̱ФפΤɤä̱̥ϤΤ

Τˤϡ̱ͳ˼뤳Ȥǧ뤷ʤΤǤĤޤꡢ̱λȤ褯뤳ȤɬפǤΤǤȤ꤬ޤޤǤϡ̥ϤȤʤɤʤΤǤĤޤꡢԾ츶Ǥ뤳Ȥʤˤϡ̱μפ뤳ȤϤʤΤǤ

ĤޤꡢޤǤΤ褦ʤ󤸤ΰٲǤϡï¿ƿ̱ͭȤ
פʤȤȤʤΤǤ

ȤȤˤʤСɤϡ̱ιݲΤˡפڤäưؤμͳʤ뤷ʤʤǤؤμͳ쵤˿ʤȤʤȡΤȤʤ̱ϡʾ굡оݤˤʤꡢ̱βͤϵ޾徺Ǥ礦ơ̱βͤ޾徺СޤǤΤ褦˥ϥڡ͢Ф³뤳ȤϤǤʤʤΤǤ

ɡ̱ιݲȤ˾񤬵³¤ꡢϼ˰ؤμͳʤᤶʤȡޤǤΤ褦˰إ졼Ȥͳ˥ȥ뤹뤳ȤǤʤʤΤǤɡ⡢Ծ츶˽ʤʤ롢ȡ

ϡ̱ιݲʤᡢιݼҲˤץ쥼󥹤äȹ᤿ܤϤΤơ̱ιݲ¥ʤ뤪򤹤ȡ˿Ф롣ơܤοФ롣Ǻϡʤ̱ιݲ˸͡ʶκ1Ĥļ»ܤƤơŤǤʤ̱μפޤ餺ݲߤߤȤ˵դܤɤȽǤ򤹤뤫ȤȤǤΤǤ

⤷ܤϤǤʤȤΤǤСإ졼ȤηԾ츶Ǥ뤷ʤȤȤˤʤΤǤ



ιĻ礤ιդϡƹˤ⥴ޤäΤǤΤǤ


ΤȤƤ뤳Ȥϡ̷⤷Ƥȴå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ˬ䤷ܤιĤǡξιĤ礦Ȥ˹դ󤸤Ƥޤ

ʤˤ褤ʤ͡ϡʥ˥塼󤸤ȡֲΤʤȤ򡩡פȻפäƤޤΤǤ

⤬­ʤƾǤ夲ȸäƤܤιĤ㤦;͵ʤɤɤ
ΤȡˡꥫιĤΤ褦ήư⤯ǤԾѲǽʹĤȤϰ㤦ΤǤϤʤȡ

⡢Υ˥塼ʹơԻ׵ĤǤʤޤǤܤιĤ뤳Ȥ˲ΰ̣Τȡ

ޥߤβɽŪǤʤΤǤ

ξηкѴطߤιĤ礦ʳäȤ̣

ϤޤޤʤΡ

ϡΤ褦󤸤Τ⤢ΤǤ

ֿ̱ιݲƤߤĤ

ʤ˿̱ιݲʤ᤿ΤǤС⤽ؤμͳʤ٤ޤĤμäܤεĤɬפȤ褦ʤȤʤɻߤ٤ǤΤǤ

ˡޥǼʤȤ⤢ΤǤ⤷ĤιबˬΰĤ̤ǤȤʤСΡ椬δطԤϡäȥץ쥤åפʤΤ

ܴطԤϡषΤ褦ʤȤäƤΤǤ

֡Ĥιۤ100ɥǤꡢ߽0.8˲᤮˶ˤƾۤǤꡢ߽¿ͲȤ֤ŤǤʤ

ǤϡϲʤΤơΤˤʤΤ

̳äϤ򤷤äǧƤΤ

¤ϡܤˤĤιȤջɽϡФ빳Ǥ
ΤǤ

ʤȤȡޤܤʸĤʤơŤԻ׵Ĥ˻פͤ¿ȻפΤǤǤ⹳˰㤤ʤΤǤϳǤΤǡʤѤܤƤȤȤʤΤǤ

ǤϡιĤʤΤǤ礦

󡢺ǯϤɤǯǤ

̺ҤꡢȤŸȯΤޤǵꡢѤǯǤäǤ¾˷к̤ǤϡĶ߹⤬äǯǤ⤢äΤǤ

ǡα߹Ф̳ɤϾˡ굡ڤšפȸ³ƤȤ򲱤ƤäǤ礦

Ǥϡ굡ڤȤϰïؤΤ

񤬺ǯդ꤫椬ιĤιۤ䤷ƤΤ¸ΤǤ礦
ơۤĴ碌뤫Τ褦˱߹⤬ʤǤ¤򡣤Ĥޤꡢɤϡ񤳤굡ڤǤˤǤΤǤ

زɬפ⤷ʤȤ굡ڤư뤳ȤǤʤȡ
ĤޤꡢˤäȼŤƤ餦ˤϤʤΤȡ

Ǥ⡢椬ιĤԾǼͳ㤵ΤߤˡʤɤʤΤǤǤϡդˡ椬ιĤ뤳ȤˤСš

Сʬ̱㤤ꡢ߰¿̱ΰϤ뤳ȤˤʤΤǤιĤܤ뤿ˤܤεĤɬפǤ뤿ᡢʤʤ⼫ͳˤǤʤΤǤ

ĤޤꡢξǹĤλ礤򤷤褦ȹդȤȤϡܤεĤ¾
äȹͤ뤳ȤǤΤǤơ塢񤬲椬ιĤ㤤ˤϡ
椬⡢ȵμԤȤˤäơ߹ⰵϤ򸺤뤳ȤǤ褦ˤʤ뤳Ȥ̣ƤΤǤ

Ǥ顢ѤС֤ǡؤ˴ؤƤäȤ໤ƤȤäƤ⤤ΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ϡ¦餽äƥ졼बդƤ;ܤäƤǤʤΤǤ

Ρϡ2ǯ֤ۤĶ߹ˤäơܹĤι礭פ¦ˤ⤿餷Ƥ뤫ǤΤǤ


ޥߤϡΤäƤƴƻ򹵤ƤΤǤ礦Ȥ˲ΤʤΤǤ礦


ϡܹĤ񤷤٤򤷤Τȵդå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ǯĤ꾯ʤʤޤѤʤȤ1ǯǤѤäʤƸޤǤ⤢ޤ󡣤Ǥϡ̺Ҥ¾ˤϲΤ

ƤʹȡŰƳ˵礷Ƥޤ⤷ޤ

ǡǯ򿶤֤̣ǡ2011ǯ10кѥ˥塼ȯɽȻפޤ

2011ǯ10кѥ˥塼Ǥ


1̡Ͽ̡ȡȯ

2̡桼

3̡Ķ߹

4̡ƹιμΨ

5̡ξκþ

6̡TPP

7̡繿

8̡Ⱥ

9̡ѥ粦

10̡ƹĤ꤬2ڤ


Ρʽ̤ˤʤäΤ

ͳϡܤϸޤ󡣤ꡢȤˤĤƼΤȤ꼨ƤȤˤޤ


Ͽ̡ȡȯΡ

к
ǽ
ϤιIJ



ꥢؤȵ
경⡢ESM

ѹθΩ

Ķ߹
̺ľα߹
桼ˤ߹

ƹιμΨ
10ޤǼΨ9

ξκþ
ƹκٰ̳夲
ƹκнк︺
ƹĤγʲ
ܤˡ

TPP
ʬ

㥿繿
ܴȤ˱ƶ

Ⱥ
ץȡꥢ

㥪ѥ粦
ʴ軻
ݥ졼ȥХʥ

ƹĤ꤬2ڤ
桼αƶ


äѤꡢïɤͤƤ⡢1̤ϡϿ̡ȡȯΤ˷ޤäƤΤǤǯ꡼ޥ󥷥åȤ100ǯ˰٤νȸäͤޤ󤳤δǤΤǤ

ϡ1ǯ桢桼֤³ǯǤ

ơƹκٰ̳夲αƶ⤢ꡢƹĤγդ줿ΤǤʤȤˡƹĤϻ˾2ڤꡢ1ǯǤ⤢äΤǤ


ƹĤγդϰ줿Ĥϻ˾2ڤäʤơ
ʤΤȴå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ϡBRICsȤΤ¸ΤȻפΤǤ

Bϥ֥饸롢RϥIɤǡC

Ǥ͡ǯǺǤܤƤ뿷кѹؤΤBRICSǤϲ餽ʸ褦ˤʤä¸ΤǤ礦

ޤޤͤùޤʹȡΤäƤͤϸ¤Ȼפޤ

¤ϡBRICsȤΤϡɥޥ󡦥åΥΥߥȤǤ른ࡦˡ᤬10ǯۤ˹ͰƤǤΤǤ

֤㤢ܤΤ֤äˤʤäޤ줿

Ϥ

ϤȡΥࡦˡȤΤnprȤ˽б餷ơBRIC˴ؤ󥿥ӥ塼ƤޤΤǡñ˾Ҳ𤷤Ȼפޤ

  • 10ǯBRICȤͰƤ
  • 10ǯλǤϡ֥饸ޤ٤ɤǵꡢطԤΤʤˤϡ֥饸ޤʤBRICȤդʤˡƥ֥饸ƤΤȤŪʸä
  • 10ǯФäʾˤ4ϹкѤ򱿱ĤƤ롣ä˥֥饸Ϥ
  • ֥饸Ĺϡ̱ιǤꡢȰäƷкѥƥबꤷƤ뤳Ȥȡ٤κ̾Ƥ뤳Ȥˤ롣
  • ˤĤƤϡdoomsday scenario ʺǸοȽΥʥꥪˤ뤬桹ϲήδɾ뤳ȤϤǤʤ
  • ˤĤƤϡ͸ƤꡢʿѼ̿ϡĤƤ60̤ǤäʺǶϡ34пӤƤˡ
  • μפϡȥФ¸٤⤹뤳ȡơкѳưˡηϤ꤬뤳ȡ
  • ФƤ⡢ФΤƱ褦ˡήδɾ뤳ȤϤǤʤ


ȤȤǡࡦˡθȤʹȡʤۤɤˤʤ뤳Ȥ¿ΤǤ

ޤǶʿѼ̿ϿӤĤĤϤΤΡܰʾ˾ҲݤǤ롢ȡơˤĤƤϡͤûΤ褦ʾˤΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢ˡ᤬ĴΤϡ򡢲ŪܤǴѻ뤳ȡɾ뤳ȤŬǤʤȤȤǤ

ˤĤƤϡdoomsday scnarioʤɤȤǡХ֥񤫤ΤǤɤ饪ˡϡХ֥βǽ㤤ȤߤƤȤȤʤΤǤ礦

Сνʤ㲼Ƥ롢ȯɽˤʤäƤޤ

򤤹Ǥ͡ȤΤϡޤǤʤȤǤԹ礬ʤСפǤñ˸ɽ򥹥ȥåפƤޤΤǤǯξȾ񤬡ʤθɽߤȤ򲱤Ƥޤ󤫡

Ǥ顢νʤʤƤääơƤˤʤʤʤȻפäƤȡޤȯɽƳǯǤϤޤ㲼ƤʤΤΡǤ2Ϣ³ƽʤ㲼Ƥʤ󤸤ƤΤǤ

峤ʤɤԻˤ뽻ʤ㲼ä˸Ǥ餷ŤơʤȤ󤸤褦ˤʤȡ桹ȤƤϡʤΤȻפäƤޤΤǤ

ܤǥХ֥뤬ƤŤμϥꥫȥ衼åѤǡơᤤǤƤΤȡ

ΤˡνʤϺ塢ä㲼³ǽϤΤǤ

ǤϡܤǤǤä褦ˡŰϥꥫǤǤä褦ˡˤäƷкѴˤޤȯŸΤ

ǡˡȯפФ٤ǤΤǤ

ϡƤθɾƤϤʤȡ

ƿͤϡΤ饮֥뤬繥Ǥ굡ȸäƤ⤷ޤ󡣳٤롢굡٤롣οΤʤˤϡȥ󥸥뤬ǤΤǤΤΥꥫΥ˥򸫤Ƥȡ褯ȥ󥸥뤬о줹ʤޤ͡

ĤޤꡢҤäȤǸοȽˬΤǤϤʤȤפƤοʹ֤ˤ䤨դޤȤäƤΤǤ

¾ͤϤɤ

οΤʤ˰ȥ󥸥뤬ǤȤϤȤƤפʤΤǤ顢
doomsday ʤƤȯۤ⤽ʤīǤ礦

ˡʿŪϡƤ٤Ƥޤޤ㤤ȤȤϡοͷϤޤޤ㤯ä͢ФDzԤȤ¤ѤʤȤȤǤ

ĤޤꡢȤХ֥뤬ƤƤ⡢Ϥʤ˾ڤäƤΤǤϤʤǤ礦



ͤϡʿѼ̿ûƶäȤå򤪴ꤤפޤ

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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ܤѤƤΤȤФפäƤ̱ޤФԤϤȤΤ˾üƤΤǤŤäѤƤޤΤǤ

äΤ褦ʤȤޤ

ֹԾγޤꡢܤˤΤŤȸѤĤȤϤʥåФȤ̳

桹ܿͤϡ֤ΤŤפȸդ˼夤Ǥ͡ΤŤꤳܿͤդȤȤǤ롣ΤŤڤˤ뤳Ȥܤ˱ɤ˷ҤʤƤĤͤǤΤǤ

ΤŤȸС㤨Į졢϶ⷿʤɤפФΤǤơΤ褦ʤȤȤϤԤޤ澮ι줳ܤηкѤ٤ƤΤȡ

󡢤ΤŤʸ䤵ʤ褦ˤ뤳ȤڤʤȤǤ礦ǤϡɤäΤŤʸݻǤΤ

äϡɤʵ˾Τ褦ȯ򤷤ΤǤ礦ޤäϤɤä顢ΤŤʸ뤳ȤǤȹͤƤΤǤ礦

ʬǤ¤ϡȯϡ˺ݤơäҤ٤ΤȤ

Ϥ¸ΤǤ͡

̺ҤФơƥӤǤϤä긫뤳Ȥʤʤä֤ɤŹĹפư֤¥ʤ
äѤƤʤǤ

󡢰dzФѼ10ߡڼư7ߡȥåХˤĤƤϡ緿֤90ߡ淿40ߡ20ߤԤȤꤷȤΤǤ

ïʤȤ븢¤ΤǤ礦Τʤк⸻ǶǤ뤫Ǥ

ˡͿȡоݤζȳϤΤ

ΤˡͿȡŪ˼֤䤬¥ʤ졢ưֻȤᤦΤϤΤȤꡣ⤬ڤ줿顩

षȤƤϡͿƤⳤϤ夹뤳ȤϤʤȤΤиƤȤǤϤʤǤ礦äȸСݸФۤɼ夯ʤ롢ȡ

ʤΤޤ衩⡢кѻäʤΡ

Τ˥꡼ޥ󥷥åθ塢μ׹񤬼ư֤Фơ֤֤ꡢͿꤷΤϤΤȤꡣ

Ǥ⡢ƱԶǡ㤨Сư֤͢ФȾȤ̤ͭλ֤˴٤ä˹֤֤ǤꡢǤС껺ȤͿ뤳ȤʤɤʤΤ
ξQˤʤäƤΤǤ

ˡʤΤʤǤȤΤǤСޤʬʤǤ⤢ޤ󡣤кѻȾʤȤСTPPʤΩˤǤϤޤ󤫡

ĤޤꡢлʤϡǤϼͳǰפڤݸϵʤȸǤϸʤ顢¾ǤϡΤ褦ȼͿʤɤȤݸޤΤȤ򤷤ƤȤʤΤǤ

˸СͿ뤳Ȥˤäơ֤ԤϥȿӤ뤫⤷ޤ󤬡⤬ڤСɬȿưΤǤĤޤꡢͿƤ⡢ĹܤǤߤСۤԤӤ뤫ɤϳΤǤϤʤΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢ɤƤʤȤ̱εȴ˴ñ˷ޤΤ

ǯκ⸻ˤ礯ˡǯչĤȯԤǤΤɬפȤǡɬפȤǧʤ褵褦ȤΤǤ

ϡɡȤȶȳ夷Ƥ뤳ȤξڤǤϤʤΤǤ礦

Ǥ̵̤κ︺ɬפȸʤ顢ɤʤɤǤΤǤ礦


ɡȤ϶ȳ夷ƤޤΤȴå򤪴ꤤޤ

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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ॸ󥤥᤬˴Ȥ˥塼ήƴݰвᤷޤ⤦椬ǤʤƤɽŪˤϡǤ⡢˥ꥫ⤽ΤȤ˻ΤƤʤäΤˤƤ⡢Ǥ

Ǥ⡢äƥॸ󥤥᤬˴ȤȤ¤ˤʤäƤ⡢ϱסīܤΤǤΤǤ礦

ϴñʤȡïϤ򰮤뤳ȤˤʤΤܤƤȤȤʤΤǤ

󡢼Υ꡼ϥॸ󥦥ǤǤɽŪʤȤǤŤȤΤޤ20Ȥ㤵ǤΤǡïθ師ͤˤʤȤߤƤΤǤĤޤʬϡΥɥХȽǤ򤹤ȤȤʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ϤΰܾˤϡȤϾꤵ뤳ȤʤΤˡޤΤʤΤ

ܤ꤬뤫

˴ؿ󤻤Τܤǡ¾ιϡʤؤɰռƤʤΤǤ

ʤΤǤܰʳιξˤϡīͭǤȤȤˤФܤԤΤǤĤޤꡢīˤͭƤʤСȺ۹ȤǤäƤ⡢ۤɷٲ뤳ȤϤʤΤǤĤޤꡢɤʤȤ򤹤뤫ʬʤѼԤƤΥܥ򲡤Ω˽Τǡ䤭⤭ƤȤȤʤΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢βʤɹͤƤǤϤʤȡΰǡܤϤȸСä˰̤οͤϡʼΤȤˤФؿԤΤǤ

ǡī褹뤿ˤϡȳʼƱ˽뤳ȤǤŪʤΤǤ

ΤΤ褦ˡīϡʼˤĤƤϡȯߤ褦ʻ򸫤ȻפСޤȯƳꤷơܲȤƤϡ褷Ƴʼ뤳ȤʤƬˤʤǤ

Ρīϳʼʤ

ʤȤ򤷤鼫ʬϰ̤פ⡢֤ˤƿˢ˵ȡäƶϤϤθ⤬ФˤƤ⡢ޤȿϤ뤳ȤǤ롢ȡ

ꥫˤСī˳ʼ뤳ȤβǤ顢ΤȤǤʤˡܤīФײθ֤˷кѻٱʤɤ顢ƹκξ㳲ˤʤäƤޤΤǤ顢ܤФơ褷ƼʬȽǤǹưƤϤʤţɤƤΤǤ

Ĥޤꡢܤϡ褹뤿ī˷кŪٱԤȤȹͤƤ⡢
ꥫλʤȤˤϲǤʤΤǤơꥫϤȸСʤؤɽ׻뤷ƤʤΤǡ褷ܤīȺä礤򤹤뤳ȤʤǧʤΤǤ

ĤޤꡢޤǤαĹܤư褦Ȥ¤ꡢβԤΤѤ񤷤ΤǤ

ǤϡꥫμĥΤīʼ뤳ȤФɬפʤΤ

Τˡ򤹤뤫ʬʤȺ۹Ȥʼͭ뤳ȤϡٹȤƤʤƤ褦ʤǤ褯ͤ顢ʼͭƤ¾ˤΤǤ

Ǥϡī˥ꥫϸΤϡīȺ۹ȤǤꡢġꥫȤī򥳥ȥ뤹뤳Ȥ񤷤ȴƤ뤫¾ʤʤΤǤ

ȤȤǡꥫϤɤޤǤīФˤ褦Ȥΰǡīϳˤ뤳ȤʤɹͤʤΤǡʤܤȤƤ⡢ʤʤī˷кŪäڤܤȤǤ̤Ȥβ⤪ܤĤʤΤǤ

ޤॸ󥤥˴ʤäΤǤĤޤꡢǤԤʤʤäΤǡξ㳲ʤʤäȤΤǤ

Ǥϡī¦ϡβ˸ưФȤϤΤ

ȤС¦ηкѻٱ뤳ȤȤǤ礦Ǥ⡢֤ˤʤޤ¦ưȤˤϥꥫʤʤȤϸʤϤˤΤǤ

κݡˤפڤΥȤ򥢥ꥫƤΤȤ򥢥ꥫ򤷤Ƥ餦ȤɬפǤΤǤ

⤽⡢ǤīФƤ͡ʻٱ򤷤ƤǤ顢ܤθ֤˾ФкѻٱԤäȤǡꥫκˤۤɤαƶͿȤϻפʤΤǤ

ˡɤʤ˴ĥääơīˤ뤳ȤԤΤ񤷤ΤǤī̱Ȥ˰ܹԤƻ򤹤ȤΤǤ̤Ǥ

ۤäǤϤޤ󤬡Τ褦ιͤǤϤʤˤĤƤ
Ǵ궯ĤĤ⡢ΰǡīηкѤȯŸ褦ˡ餤Ϥ褦ʤȤäƤ⤤ȻפΤǤ

ΤʤСīι̱ϡɴͤषƤ⸢Ϥ˽ͤȤʤäǤ
դ˾ब夷Ƥ뤳Ȥˤäơޥɥȥ뤬򤱤ͤʵ
Ǥ

ˤƤ⡢ī˴ؤƤϡڹܤäѶŪ˹ư뤳ȤƤȸǤ礦


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īζ񵭤1217830ʬ˴ʤäΤȤ

ϻƳ˸桢¤ǻ˴ȡ69Фäȡ


񵭤ϡ2008ǯ9˲켰˽ʤʤäȤޤǾ´ǡʹߡ꤬ưʤʤäƤȡ

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1220ʬ

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ϡࡦ󥤥λ˴Υ˥塼ǤʤΤǤäѤѤäǤ͡

Ρ˴λ¤ȯɽޤ2ʾ⤫Τ

ˡ⤷2˴ʤäΤǤϤʤ⤦βǽ⤢ΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ˤƤɽ줿¤򿮤뤷ʤʤΤǤ

˴θϡŪŪʲϫȸƤΤǤΤ褦ʾ֤ΤʤǡθϻƳˤǤƤΤǤ礦

ޤȤˤ桹ܿͤȤƤϡΤȤľƬ⤫֤ΤǤ

λĤ褦ˤʤΤϡդ˲褬ΤΤ

䡢פΤǤDzβǽ礭ʤΤǤϤʤȡ

ΤȸСī¦ϳαߤƤǤ顢ζλ˴򤭤ä˸Ĥ˾ФȤԤǤΤǤ

ޤǤˤǤʤäȤκϴԤǤ뤫ȸС֤ǤԤʤʤäȤǡƤǤ˴ʤäԤ˲դФǤ

ī¦ȤƤϸ֤׵᤹Ǥ礦¦ȤƤϡκݡ׵ϼʤƤϤʤʤǤ礦

Dz褹Τϲ󡢤ʤ⤢ΤǤפ줿ͤȤβ²ˤȤäƤϡޤäΤǤϤʤΤǤ

ξ㳲ϡषäܤī¦ʪŪʱͿ뤳ȤФƹΥåˤǡƹФơܤϤޤѤȤ򤤤ʤȸ٤Ǥ礦


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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ϡٱ礹뤿IMF̤100ɥФͤ򼨤ʤ󤸤ƤǤ

ϤεϤɤפޤ

ͥʤä͡ʤƹͤƤޤ

ʤȤϤʤǤͥ͡åȾΰոߤȡɤФ餷ǴǤͤϾʤΤǤ

ǤϡΤʤ˵褯ϤФȤΤ

桼δطǡѹ񤬸ΩƤŤơѹȥ礬Τǡκݥš

ʤȤǤϤʤΤǤ

ϤȤͳΤǤ

֥桼夤кѤˤ褤ƶ뤫顩

ϤʤΤǤäڼ¤ͳΤǤǤ⡢줫ȤϡΤʾڵ򤬤ǤϤʤ¿ʬ˿¬ǤޤΤǤαդƤʹ

¤ϡϡ桼Ƥλ񻺤ͭƤΤǤ߽ΰĤȤƥ桼ƻ񻺤ͭƤȤȤǤơ桼ƻ񻺤ȸСΤȤʤ顢桼ιĤ濴ˤʤΤǤ

ʬäƤޤ

Ĥޤꡢϡ桼κĸԤǤȤȤǤ桼ˤߤƤ롢ȡΤΤ褦ˡ桼ޤʤꥢĤϤޤ7˾äƤޤäɤΤ

ʧСĤβʤ˽ƤΤǡ»ȤʤΤǤˡ桼ιĤʧäʤƤȤΤȡΥ᡼̵Ǥ

ȤޤʤϤʤ

ǤϡĤIMF˾ϤɤǤ礦100ɥΥ桼ιĤ
IMF˰ϤȡĤޤꡢκĸϡIMFФնѤꡣʤȡϤ䥤ꥢɤʤȡڥ󤬤ɤʤȡϼϤ줬ʤʤǤΤʤСߤ꤬IMFǤΤǡΤȤˤϡIMFݾڿͤˤʤ뤫ʤΤǤ

ʤȤǥǤ礦

IMF̤Ʋٱ礷ȡǤѤʹΤɺĸϡIMFФնѿȤ뤳ȤˤäͥɺĸѤꤹΤǤ



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Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ǶᡢǤäФǵޤ͡ǯλٵǯ٤ʤꤽ

ȤǡǤǤäˤʤȡɬʤȤͤΤǤ

֤ʥǥեξ֤Ǥ򤹤Ȥϲסǥե줬󤯤ʤꡢѤäǼ

ʤȤΤϡɾȤȤ򵤼ä褦ʿͤ¿ΤǤ

ϡεȻפޤȤ

¿ʬ빽¿οͤιͤٻƤ褦ˤפΤǤơʰոҤ٤ƤͤؤɤΤ褦ʤȤкѳؤζʽ˽񤫤ƤꡢΤǤʤ¤ͤƤ褦ʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ˤʤȤкѳؤζʽ˽񤤤ƤΤǤ礦

ϡ̩˸СʤȤ񤫤Ƥʤήιͤ˽Сʵ褯뤿˸Ǥ򤹤褦ʤȤ񤫤ƤŤɤ⤽顢ʵǤȷʵ򰭤ȤͤƳФƤ褦˸ΤǤ

ǤϡΤȤϤɤʤΤ

⤷ΤȤ˶̣СꥫNewsHourΥݡȤΩĤΤǤ

Now, what the ups and downs in tax rates means for economic growth.

Ψΰ夲ϰϷкĹˤȤäƤɤʰ̣Τ

NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman offers a history lesson for some insights.

NewsHourΥݡ륽󤬡ˤؤȤҲ𤷤ޤ


ȤȤǡNewsHourReportϤޤΤǤˤϤĤޤǤҲ𤤤ޤ


Do higher taxes on the rich retard economic growth, or don't they?

ֶФ⤤ǤϷкĹ˳ΤϤʤΤ

In 1917, given the expensive war, Congress jacked the top marginal rate upward.

1917ǯˡŤ˵IJϡǹΨΰ夲Ԥä

From 7 percent to 77 percent. And, by the way, the phrase "soak the rich" emerged at that time, too.

7󤫤77ذ夲줿ˤäơֶפȤޤ줿

The new top marginal tax rate of 77 percent applied only to income starting at a million 1918 dollars. The average rate for the very rich, however, was only 15 percent.

1918ǯΥɥβͤǡ100ɥʾνΤԤФƤϡ77θ³Ψݤ줿ФʿΨϡ15Ǥʤä

Fifteen percent average rate means the wealthiest Americans paid 15 percent of their overall income in taxes. It's not nothing, but it's not 77 percent.

ʿΨ15ǤȤȤϡǤΥꥫͤϡǽ15ǤȤƻʧäȤȤǤ롣77ǤϤʤ

Conceivably, high taxes on the rich prolonged the Great Depression, but, then, how to explain the postwar boom, right through the Republican administration of Dwight Eisenhower, when the top marginal rate remained in the 90s? And when President Kennedy cut the top rate, growth didn't exactly soar.

¿ʬФ⤤Ψ϶ĹΤǤǤϡηʵ
ɤä뤳ȤǤΤϥζޤǡǹΨ90
ΤޤޤǤäΤơͥǥΤǹΨ򲼤ȤʵϾʤä

President Reagan? Cut rates drastically, as advisers like Arthur Laffer urged.

֥졼Τϡåեδ˱ƷŪΨڤ겼

Two big tax cuts, one in '81 and another one in '86. The top rate came down from 50 percent to 28 percent, and that's the lowest it's been since Andrew Mellon.

٤ʰä٤1981ǯǡ⤦٤1986ǯǹΨ50󤫤28㲼ϥ̳Ĺʹߺοä

What was the rationale for that?

Ψڤ겼ˤɤʹΤ

That if you cut taxes, you will stimulate growth and that growth will trickle down from the top all the way to the bottom of the income distribution.

֤⤷ΨСкĹ¥Ĺβ̽⤤Ȥ鲼سؤũ뤳Ȥˤʤ

And what happened?

֤ɤʤäΤ

Not a whole lot of trickling down.

֥ȥꥯθݤ줿Ȥϸʤ

So does that refute the notion that, if you cut taxes, you stimulate growth?

֤ǤϡǤ򤹤ȷкĹɷ㤹ȤͤꤹΤ

It's not exactly clear, but -- but there's no strong support for the proposition that trickle-down works.

֤ϤäꤷƤʤΤȥꥯǽȤΤʾڵϤʤ

Of course, strong political support for the proposition continues to the present. But, sadly, says the professor, there's no academic consensus.

֤󡢤μĥФ뺬Ūʻٻ³Ƥ롣ᤷȤ˳ؽŪʹդϤʤȤζϸ

Clinton boosted the top marginal rate from 31 percent to 39.6 percent.

֥ȥϡ³Ψ31󤫤39.6ذ夲

Economic growth spiked after the Clinton tax increase. And although no one says that high tax rates lead to economic growth, this kind of fact is certainly not the greatest fact if you want to argue that higher tax rates, top marginal rates impede economic growth. Sorelationship is complicated.

֥ȥǤ򤷤ưʹߡкĹΨϾ徺ι⤤ΨкĹΨ᤿Ȥïʤ⤷⤤ΨĤޤǹ³Ψ⤤ȷкĹ˳ȼĥǤС¤ϳΤԹ礬ĤޤꡢطʣǤΤ

And complicated, it remains. Economic growth hasn't exactly spurted in the wake of the tax cuts of George W. Bush, which President Obama reluctantly agreed to extend through next year.

֤ơʣǤ롣֥åΤθǤθ塢кĹϳΤ˾ȤϤʤäơθǤ򥪥ХΤϽ¡ǯޤDZĹ뤳Ȥ˹դ


ǡǤ礦

Υ˥塼ȤϡΨȷкĹΨδطˡؽŪʹդϤǤƤʤƤΤǤ

椬ΥƥӤˤ褯о줹ɾȤȤϡΤȤǧƤΤǤ礦

ݡޤȤ˷кѳؤؤȤϤȤƤפʤΤǤ

ơΤ褦ɾȤ¿ι̱ƶƤΤǤ


ƥӤ˽ФƤɾȤϹ˸äƤȤפʤȴƤϡå
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ؤɳ˹ԤʤϡΥ˥塼ʹƹͤƤޤޤ1ɥ륳¤ʤ褦ˤʤȡ͡ϺΤǤϤʤȡ

㤨С桹褫100߹ŲߤäƤޤС50߶2Ѥ뤫10߶10Ѥ뤳ȤˤʤǤ礦ݤȤ

Ǥ⡢ۤפʤΤǤΤʤ顢ꥫͤ1ɥ뻥ȤȤؤɤǤ뤫ȡ

ʡۤɡϡ100߻ȤΤή̤ƤΤ¸ΤǤ礦

ijξ100߻ǤޤΤäƤȤͤϡǯȻפΤǤ

100߻100߹ŲߤĤή̤ƤȤơ桹ܿͤϡɤä˻ȤǤ礦100߻Ȥ100߹Ųߡ

ϡʤȤʤ100߹ŲߤȤ꤬褦ʵΤǤꥫͤˤȤä1ɥŲߤϻȤ꤬äΤǤ礦

ʤƻפäĴ٤Ƥߤȡ1ɥŲߤȤΤľ¤26.5mmŤ8.1g⤢ȤȤǡ빽礭ΤǤܤ100߹Ųߤϡľ¤22.6mǡŤ4.8gޤ󤷡500߹ŲߤˤƤ⡢ľ¤26.5mmǡŤ7.0gǤȤޤ顢1ɥŲߤ礭ƽŤΤǤ

ˡŤޤͳΤǤȤΤϡ1ɥŲߤȤΤ⤢餷
졢ɤȤȸС2007ǯǯȾȤ˿1ɥŲߤȯԤƤ餷ޤǤ20बȯԤƤΤȤ

ΤʤΤǤ礦¤ϡ1ɥ륳ˤΤƤơ⼡ȯԤͽˤʤäƤʤΤǤĤޤꡢ1ɥŲߤǤ衢ȸƤ̤ʪɤʬʤȤȤ⤢ΤǤ礦

1ɥ뻥ȤȤˤʤäƤȡ;ʤߤΤʤ1ɥ륳ȤΤˤ񹳴Τ⤷ޤ

ǡ1ɥ륳Ϲ̱ˤϿ͵ʤ̤1ɥ륳Ϣ˴ήƤƤΤȤΤǤ

NPRΥ˥塼ʹƤߤޤ礦

INSKEEP: Yesterday, the White House announced it would halt the minting of unwanted $1 coins. As NPR has reported, over 1 billion of the coins are sitting unused in government vaults.

ֺۥ磻ȥϥϡפΤʤ1ɥ륳¤ߤȯɽNPR󤸤褦ˡ10ɥĶ1ɥ륳󤬡ܴζˤ¢Ƥ

MONTAGNE: The pile-up is due to a law passed in 2005 that requires the minting of new dollar coins honoring all the U.S. presidents one by one. David Kestenbaum, with our Planet Money team, reports.

֤1ɥŲߤޤäƤΤϡ2005ǯ̲ᤷˡΧΤǤˡΧϡƹƤΤ˷ɰդʧͤҤȤ򿷤ˤ뤳ȤƤΤǤǡӥåɡƥХब𤷤ޤ

DAVID KESTENBAUM, BYLINE: When we first reported on this, we calculated that the unwanted coins had cost taxpayers some $300 million to make. There were so many coins piling up, the Federal Reserve was redesigning a vault in Texas to help hold them all. We got to see a vault in Baltimore filled with coins.

ֲ桹ΤȤǽ𤷤ȤפΤʤ3ɥۤɤηǼǼԤˤƤȻФޤ¿ΥޤäƤꡢϢϡ¢Ƥ˥ƥζˤβ¤ԤäȤǤܥƥ⥢ˤϥǤäѤǤ

AMY ESCHMAN: This is our coin vault. It's roughly the size of a soccer field.

֤줬桹ΥζˤǤäȡå礭Ǥ


ȤȤǡ1ɥŲߤȯԤƤ⡢͵ʤȯԤ4Ϣ˴ήƤǡη̡ݴѤζˤ­ƤΤǤΤޤ1ɥˤȯԤ³顢ס꤬ʤʤäƤޤȡ

ȥʡ̳ĹϼΤ褦˸äƤޤ

We're going to save the taxpayers about $50 million a year. That's a meaningful chunk of money.

ֲ桹ϡǼǼԤΤǯ5ɥۤ󤹤뤳ȤˤʤϡʤζۤǤ

1ɥ륳ȯԷײϡΤ̾Ӥʤɤ̱ΤäƤ餦ŪäȸޤŤäȤФθ­ʤäȤ٤ǤϤʤǤ礦

äơ桹ܿͤäơξοʪɤʤȤ򤷤ʤơΤäƤ
ǤϤʤΤǤ顣Τˤʤơ

ˤƤ⡢פΤʤΤĹ³ȤϤʤȤ򡢺νϲ桹˶ƤΤǤ


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