кѥ˥塼

޸Ρкѥ˥塼̤ưͻ֥Ǥϵ岹Ȳ˻ߤΤúи󾧤ޤиӽиȤϰ㤤ޤߤʴ㤤ΤǤ

2015ǯ05

ƹ2015ǯ1-3GDPβͤȯɽޤˤȡ®ͤǤ0.2%ĹΨǤäΤʤȥޥʥ0.7%˲줿ΤȤ

äΤǤ礦͡

пʹϡΤ褦󤸤Ƥޤ

ֲͳˤĤơƾ̳ʤϺǿǡȿǤֽ̡񤬾ΤΡ͢졢¤Ȥ䲷κ߸⸺פܻٽФΥޥʥ⹭ʤɤƤ褯ʤ껦ʤä

ǡǤ礦

褺񤬾ΤΤȤޤΤ˽ϾƤꡢϲϤʤǤ礦

ˡ͢줿Ȥޤ͢ȡGDPοΨ򲡤뤳ȤˤʤΤǤ礦

ϡ㤨иĿ;͢Фʤǡ͢СĿ;оݤȤʤä䥵ӥΤ͢줿Τγ礬礭ʤΤǡʬκ䥵ӥϾʤʤäʤǤ

ǤϡǸ˺߸ˤĤƤϤɤǤ礦

߸GDPδطˤĤƤϡ򤷤ޤϵ򤷤Ƥɤǧ̣ǡδ֡ʬǹͤƤߤƲ

ǡǤ礦

ϡϡ߸񤬸ȤǤϤʤ߸񤬲줿Ƚ񤯤٤ȻפޤΤʤС®ͤβͳҤ٤ƤĽǤ߸񤬸ȤΤϡޤǤȤӤäǤäơ1®ͤȤӤǤϤʤǤ

ˡäȽפʻ¤Ҥ٤ʤС߸񤬸ȤǸäƤΤΡºݤˤ٤ƸƤʤǤ

ɽ

GDP
߸ϳΤ˲ƤΤǡ줬GDPĹΨ򲡤ƤΤǤΰǡ߸οͤϡ80.095.0ƤΤǤ

ޤäƤ⡢ޤθȤ˳οƤʤͤ⤤뤫⤷ޤΤǡǸˡƹ̳ʤǺܤƤޤ

The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.9 percentage point, or $40.7 billion, less than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to private inventory investment and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upward revision to residential fixed investment.

ּˡ͢줿ȡڤֺ̱߸ȸĿ;񤬲줿ȤȿǤơ

ƹ̳ʤθϡޤǤ߸βǤꡢ߸θǤϤʤΤǤ



Фεϸ򾷤Ȼפäå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ǥХ­ͽۤȤΤܤХζ۵͢ꤷޤ

ǤϡΥХ­Ȥ褦ʤȤΤ
ޤǤȤͳͤƤޤĤܼŪͳҤ٤ʤСϥХƤ礷٤ʤȤǤϤʤǤ礦

ȤǡȤϲܻؤƳưƤΤ

ɵڤΤǤ

顢٤Ȥʤе̤䤷Х٤ȤʤХХ̤䤹ȡ

Ǥ⡢Х­ȤΤǯȯƤΤǤ۵͢ʤƸäƤޤǯǯ˲Х͢褦ʤȤƤΤǤ

Ǥ礦Х­ϵƤ⡢᡼ϥʤɤ褦ȤϤƤʤΤǤ

ΤǤ礦

ñ˹ͤʤСХ٤뤫Ǥ礦Ǥ顢Х­ȤʤΤǤ

Ȥǡ̤뾦ʤ­褦ʤȤСȲʤϾ夬ΤʤΤǤŷԽڤ餬ʤȡȤ˲ʤ˽ƭ롢ȡʤϴݤΤ̤Υ٥Ĥ⡢ȾʬڤäꤷŹƬ¤٤롢ȡʤۤɾ夬äȤϻפ碌ʤ褦ˤ빩פǤ

Ʋʤ夬СԤϤβʤ夬äʤܻؤǤȤѤʤDzʤ夬ΤǤС٤뤫Ǥ

ǤϡХϤɤʤΤǤ礦


̳ѤΥХϳΤ˲ʤ夬äƤȸΤǤĤԸ̤ΥХβʤˤϡۤѲϸʤΤǤ

⤷ǤϤʤʤɡȾ夬СΥ᡼ϵޤƤХͥ褹뤫⤷ޤ

ܤͽХ­ͽۤƳХ͢ΤüΥХβʤϤۤɾ夬餺˽ΤǤ

ǡƥХβʤ夬뤳ȤʤСХѤ餺٤ʤʤΤޤޤǤ³ΤǤ

ǤϡХ­ȯ뤳ȤϴñͽۤǤϤʤǤ

ǤϡΥХ٤ʤΤ


㤨Сβʤ1åȥ200ߤȲꤷޤ礦ơΰǡ200gΥХβʤ400ߤǤ롢ȡ

Х200g뤿ɬפ̤ϤɤʬˤʤޤʤȤ23ܤ4600ࡣ

ȤȤϡ绨Ĥʷ׻Ǥ200ߡ4.6920ߤȤȤǡ200gΥХ뤿ˤ920ʬεɬפˤʤΤǤΰǡ200gΥХ400ߤǤʤΤǡʤʤڥʤΤǤ

ʬˤʤޤ


ǤϡΤʤ٤ʤХ˸ڤĤʤΤ


Ǥ⡢ʤȤ򤷤顢;äˡνʬ˺ΤǤ;֤Ĺ³Сβʤ㲼ȼԤηбĤϱס줷ʤǤ礦

ǡɤʬ̤ʤ顢;äȤƥХæʴС»餫Ǿ뤳ȤǤ롢ȡ

Ǥ⡢Τ褦;ʪǥХʤȯۤ򤷤Ƥ뤫顢ղòͤι⤤Хʤо줷ʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦

㤨С졼ХʤƤޤ͡ʾԤäȴ֤褦ʾʤɤɤȯϤɬפʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦

㤨С졼Х򤪼ΤĤޤߤˤȡȰ줤ʤȻפΤǤΤ褦ʤȤäȥåԡ뤷ɤǤ礦

줿ΥХƤѤΥХʤФΤ⤤⤷ޤ

ˤƤ⡢ܤʤϡΥȤ᤮ʤΤǤ͡

ΤǤ礦㤨С˥塼ɤʤɤؤ֤٤ȤϤʤΤǤ礦

˥塼ɤϡҤηäƤΤǡλˤ֤ʤȤܤڤ˰¤ѤȸƤޤŪ˸С¤Ϳꡢʵν򤷤ꡢϵʬڤ˿ʹ֤뤳Ȥ⾯ʤȸޤ⡢ҼˤǰƤΤǤϤʤΤǡʤȸޤ

Τ褦ʹȶ褷ʤƤϤʤΤǤĺΤޤޤ³ƤƤĤǽ϶ˤƾȤפޤ

Ȥ⡢Τ褦ʾ֤ܤӤȹͤΤ⤷ޤ

ܤκŪʸľɬפʤΤǤϤʤǤ礦


ܤ⡢Ҥʤɤ줿餤Ȼפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ΩηôäźλʤƤޤ

ɤפޤϡλٻ

˶򤫤ʿͤǤ͡ʤǺˤʤäƤǤΤȻפΤǤǤ礦

ˡĻϡκޤǤιΩΤɬפäΤȻפΤǤǽʬǤϤʤäΤȡ˽ʬǤʤȤΤǤСʤɤ򤹤ФΤȡ

ʻפФäƤ줿äΤˡǤ⡢⤦ΤƤޤäΤǤ͡

ʤߤ֤餺

ˤƤ⡢ΩǤΤˡԤФɬפΤȸȡΤȤꡪ

âΰǡԤԥåͶפΤ顢Ԥ⤽ʤô餦٤ȸȡ뤫ʡȡ

ǡʤȤƤȡ2020ǯԥå˴֤˹ʤΤǤϡĤʤʹƤꤷơĤǤ⡢¤ϡ2020ǯԥå˽ʥ٥ȤƤΤǤ

¸ΤǤ

Ǥ2019ǯ910ˤ饰ӡΥɥåפܤdzŤ뤳ȤˤʤäƤꡢκݡΩȤͽꤵƤΤǤ

ȤȤϡԥå˴֤˹碌ǤϤʤΥ饰ӡΥɥåפ˴֤˹碌ɬפΤǤ

Ǥ⡢äʹȡסźλ̣򤷤ʤ뤫⤷ޤ͡

äơΩϥԥåΤ˷ߤΤȤϸʤ⡢Ѥȥ饰ӡΥɥåפΤ˷ߤȤפ뤫ǤΤѤԤôɬפΤȡ

Ȥǡ饰ӡʹƻפФȤޤ󤫡



ԥݥ

ϡԥåȿѰβĹǤǤϤʤ
Ĺ֡ܥ饰ӡβĹ̳ƤΤǤ

餯λôˤΰո礭ƶ򤷤ƤΤǤϤʤǤ礦



ïɤô뤫ʤƤۤɽʤȤǤϤޤ󡣤äơˤƤǽŪˤǼǼԤôˤʤ뤳Ȥ˰㤤ϤʤǤ

Ǥ礦ɡ桹ôʤФʤȤȤʤΤǤ

䡢פΤǤĤʤȤ⡢˿Ƥ˥ԥåʤɳŤפʤΤȡ

侮عǤⱿưϽǤϤʤ5˳ŤΤήˤʤäƤǤϤޤ󤫡1964ǯԥåǤ10˳ŤΤǤ줬2020ǯԥåϡֽ뤤7ܤ8ܤˤƹԤ롢ȡ

Ƥ˥ԥå򳫺ŤơΤߤʤ餺Ԥη򹯤ˤʤʤΤǤ礦

ˡɤǮȡƥꥫ繿˺ƤǤ塢ס۾ﵤݤȯ뤳ȤۤȸΤˡ

꿼Ȥʻ֤䤷ߤȻפΤǤ


ȤȻפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

⡢Х­ΤĤƹͤƤߤȻפޤ

ϤääơХ­ƤθϤɤˤȻפޤ

졢ˤäƤʹͤΤǤĤǤ⡢θʬʤ餤ĤޤǷФäƤƱȤ֤ΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢褺ʤθ򤬤ɤʤäƤ뤫ȸС

Q 1. ʤХ­ΤǤ

A 1. ʿ25ǯԽαƶ˼¿ȯȤ䡢ȤΥƬƤ뤳Ȥʤɤˤꡢʡäޤޤεˤ̤ᡢХ̤߸̤礭ޤ

 Хκ߸̤ᡢȥ᡼ϡŪʶ³褦ʽв̤Ȥ䡢԰طʤȤƲѥХ濴˹̤äȡPDF248KB顢ŹƬΥХˤʤäΤȹͤޤ

Q 2. ­ƤʤΤˡʤХ­ΤǤ

A 2. ϡԤ䤹ᡢޤǤ꡼ʤɤ˲ù졢Ǹ¸ι⤤Хæʴ˲ùƤޤХæʴϡ¿Ϻ߸ˤȤѤ߾夲Ƥ­ϡХæʴ򸺤餹ؤ˺߸ˤФȤäĴۤεǽäƤޤ

Τ褦¤ȤʤäƤ뤿ᡢ̤ƤȡХ̤礭뤳Ȥˤʤޤ

ǡǤ礦

θʹơǼǤ礦

褺ƬƤ뤿̤Ƥ뤫ȤޤΤϥХФǤϤʤ¾˵꡼ࡢæʴʤɤΤǤ

Х­

ǤϡʤˤʤäƤΤǤ礦

ϥΡǤˤʤäƤΤϡХʤΤǤ

ǤϡΥХˤʤΤǤ礦

ϡƱǤ⡢ӤˤäƼʤۤʤäƤ뤫Ǥ

μʡ

ѡ115/
꡼ѡ75/
Хѡ70/
ѡ50/


ǡǤƱǤ⤳ʤ˼ʤ㤦ΤǤ

ȼԤä顢ʤѤȤꤿȻפΤ

˼ºݤˤϡȤ˻ʧʤϡӤޤäǷޤȤȤ餷ΤǡȼԤˤӤ;ϤϤʤΤȻפޤ


ȤʤСХѤ­Ƥ⡢Ѥɬ­ϤʤΤǤ

ʡۤɡȻפä϶ʪǤ

ȤΤ⡢ѤϤäȰ¤ʤǼƤ뤫ǤĤޤꡢХѤ⤵˲ʤ㤤ȡ

ǤСˤĤƤϥХʾ­ȯƤΤ

­ʤäʹޤ

ΤǤ礦

ϥХȰäƴΨ㤯͢ʪ¿Ǥ礦ĤޤꡢǤ뤬ʤ­ŤäƤ롢ȡ

ǤϡιϸƤΤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ʤȤϤʤΤǤƤΤǤ⡢˥ι䤹ޤǻٵ뤷ƤΤǤ

Ȥϻפޤ󤫡

褯ͤƤߤƲܤϡХŻ뤷ݸ褦ȤƤ뤫餳Х͢ˤϼ¼360%δΨݤǡ͢ˤ30%٤δΨݤƤʤȻפäΤˡļºݤˤϡХŻ뤷ƤΤǤ

ǤϤޤ衣ʤΥȤdzǧǽʤΤǤǯХϸ̣ǤΤˡƤΤǤ

Ǥ礦ϴΨ㤤ˡɤǤ⼫ͳ˳͢ǽǤΤ­뿴ۤϤޤ󡣤ʤΤˡˤϤƤ뤫餳ХϸäƤƤΤǤ

ĤޤꡢХȥΤɤŻ뤷Ƥ뤫ȸСʤΤǤ

ƤΤޤ󡣥˲̤ޤСХ­뤳ȤϤʤäΤǤ顢ǽ餫顢Τ褦ʤȤΤͽۤϰʤΤǤ

ˡХ­СܻʲݤΩˡܻͤȿν֤ȤʤǤ礦

äƤߤСʬǻŻФơʬѤ˿äƤʤΤǤ

Х­ʤ֤Ǥʤȸ٤Ǥ礦



ʤΤäƤ뤳ȤʤȤȻפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

Х­ͽۤΤǡܤ۵͢Ԥʤ󤸤Ƥޤ

Ȥǡפ֤˥ΥХƤǤȻפäΤǤ
ʤϥμ뤳Ȥ¿ΤǤˤϥΥХƤ⤤ʤȻפĤǡѡʤê­ΤǤХʤʤΤ˶äޤϥ塼ΥХ㤤äΤǤĤǡ̤Ȥƥ塼꤬㤨ΤǤϥХ1/3äƤʤʤäΤǤ

ᤷޤ礦

ˤƤ⡢Х­ƤʹСۤƤޤΤ;𡣤äơ٤ΤǤ顣顢ǽŪȿƤޤΤǤ

Ʊˡ䤬ͯƤΤǤ

Х­ͽۤȤƤ⡢­ʬܤ虜虜͢ɬפΤʤ̱֤ǤƤФΤǤϤʤȡ

ǡĴ٤ƤȡХȤΤϻʤȤ졢ΩˡܻͤȿۤŪ͢ԤäƤΤȤ

ۤŪȤΤϡ̤͢ؤɤߤʤȤȤǤΤʤΤȸС̾ΥХ͢ˤϼ¼360δΨ뤫ȸΤǤ

Ψ360%Ǥ衪

פˡȼԤ뤿˹⤤Ǥ򤫤ݸƤ̡Хͳ͢뤳Ȥʤ顢Ʋ餫θŤʤȥХ­֤ñȯΤǤ

äϡ֥Хΰ궡˻پ㤬ʤ褦ʬ̤ɲ͢ˤ϶Ṳ̄ޤ᤿ɲ͢бɽפȽҤ٤ƤΤǤ

ɤפޤ

®͢٤ʤΤǤ礦

ˤƤ⡢¿ε䤬ĤΤǤ

ХǤʤ㤨ڤäơŷʤɤαƶˤʤʤƤȤϤ褯ǤĤΤ褦ʾ硢ʤҴȿơǼפȶΥХ󥹤ΤǤ

ХˤĤƤϡΤ褦ʤȤ򲿸ιͤʤΤǤ礦

Ĥޤꡢ뤬­ȤΤǤСʤ夬ΤԤĤơʤ夬СȼԤ⡢ХθȤʤ䤽ȤΤǤϤʤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ɤ⤽Τ褦ʤȤͤƤ뵤ۤϤʤΤǤ

Х­ʤ顢ʤܤ͢򤹤롢ȡ

äƴñ͢򤷤ƤޤΤǤСΤ˹⤤Ψ򤫤ƤΤȤؤʤΤǤ

ޤǤ礦Ǥ⡢¾ˤ⤢ΤǤϡХ­ȤΤǤСΥ­ʤΤȤȤǤ

Τʬˤʤޤ

¤ϡ͢ФƤϼ¼30%٤δΨʤˡ͢䤹ȸΤǤ

ȤȤϡ⤷ХδΨ¤ˤȡХ­ʤƵȦʤΤǤ

Ǥϡ⤽ХδΨɤʤΤǤ礦

ʤȤ򤷤ȼԤݸǤʤ

Ǥ⡢ܤܵǹȼԤȤƤȤϻפʤΤϴˤߤȤǤñ˳͢Τǡʤ夬ʤȡʤ夬ʤȡȼԤݸˤϤʤʤΤǤ

ȤǡƥХ­ͳϡȼԤꡢäƤ뤫ȸޤ˸Сʹߤα߰¤ǡܤαʤɤΥȤǤ뤿ˤʤʤλˤʤꡢΤѶȤǤʤȡ

Ǥ⡢Τ褦ʸȤȤϡ⤤ΨȼԤݸθ̤ȯƤʤȤȤʤΤǤ顢ä餳κݡΨˤۤɹ뤳ȤϤʤȤפΤǤ

顢ʤƤԤϲä򴶤뤳ȤǤޤġ





٤ݻƤƤ⡢ͭ񤬤äƤΤϡΩˡܻͤȿȻפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤

Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

FRBĹ22ǯ夲ϤŬǤȽҤ٤󤸤ƤޤĤ¸ΤǤ礦

ȤǡƹμΨϡʬäƤȤϸܤ⤤ǤܤΤĤƤ夲ɤɲäδºˤʤۤɤʤΤˡƹ夲ԤȤƤΤǤ礦

ˤĤơ¨Ǥ뵮Ωɡ

ϥեΨʤΤǤ͡

פˡƤȤ˥եΨɸͤ2%ǤΤǤܤϺƤӥեΨ礭㲼Ƥ뤫ʤΤǤĤޤꡢեΨкѳưμ٤ȹͤ硢ܤڤ˷ʵΰƹϤۤɤǤϤʤȤȤʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ΰǡۤϡʪδĴ¤˲ƤʤƸΤǤ͡

ƤΤʤ顢ꥫΤ褦˺٤夲λϺɬפФƤǤĤΤ褦ʵۤޤ

ȤȤǡ̱ȤƤⲿʬʤʤĤΰǡ¤ͤ夲ƤΤǡïդ褦ȤϤʤ

ˤƤ⡢ꥫ夲Υߥ󥰤ޡåȤ礭ʱƶͿǽΤϤΤΤȤꡣǡϡĹܲɤΤ褦ʤΤǤ뤫õäƤߤȻפΤǤ

Given this economic outlook and the attendant uncertainty, how is monetary policy likely to evolve over the next few years?

֤Τ褦ʷкѸ̤ȤˤޤĤԳμ˴դߤȤǯΤ˶ͻϤɤΤ褦ѲʤΤ

Because of the substantial lags in the effects of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a forward-looking manner.

ֶͻˤΥ饰ȼȤ桹ϡͻեɥå󥰤ʤΤˤʤФʤʤ

Delaying action to tighten monetary policy until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating the economy.

ָѤȥեΨ桹ɸãޤǰ٤餻뤳ȤˤʤСкѤǮƤޤꥹ

For this reason, if the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy.

֤Τᡢ⤷кѤ䤬ͽۤ褦˲³ΤǤСǯΤǡեǥե󥺥졼ȤͶƳɸ夲ǽΥƥåפꤹȤȤˡͻﲽΥץ򳫻Ϥ뤳ȤŬǤȹͤ

To support taking this step, however, I will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions, and I will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the medium term.

֤Τ褦ʹư˽Ф뤿ˤϡϡѻԾ줬³뤳ȤǧɬפȤȤˡեΨŪ2%ο뤳Ȥ˹Ūʳοɬפ

After we begin raising the federal funds rate, I anticipate that the pace of normalization is likely to be gradual.

֥եǥե󥺥졼Ȥΰ夲򳫻Ϥ塢ﲽΥڡϴˤ䤫ʤΤˤʤǤȻͽۤ

The various headwinds that are still restraining the economy, as I said, will likely take some timeto fully abate, and the pace of that improvement is highly uncertain.

ִ˽Ҥ٤褦ˡкѳưޤ͡ʸޤˤ֤Ȼפ졢ޤΥڡԳΤǤ

If conditions develop as my colleagues and I expect, then the FOMC's objectives of maximum employment and price stability would best be achieved by proceeding cautiously, which I expect would mean that it will be several years before the federal funds rate would be back to its normal, longer-run level.

ַкѾ䤿ͽۤ褦ŸΤʤСѤκ粽ʪΰȤԾѰɸϡѿʤ뤳ȤˤäƺǤ褯ãǤĤޤꡢեǥե󥺥졼ȤĹŪ˸ȻפˤϿǯפ뤳ȤȤʤ

Having said that, I should stress that the actual course of policy will be determined byincoming data and what that reveals about the economy.

âºݤ˶ͻɤΤ褦ʥ򤿤ɤ뤫ϡꤵǡɤΤ褦ʤΤǤ뤫ˤäƷꤵ뤳ȤĴʤФʤʤ

We have no intention of embarking on a preset course of increases in the federal funds rate after the initial increase.

ֶ夲ϸ塢եǥե󥺥졼ȤɤΤ褦˾徺ƤˤĤơäƷꤷ塼뤬ǤϤʤ

Rather, we will adjust monetary policy in response to developments in economic activity and inflation as they occur.

֤ष桹ϡкѳư䥤եΨɤΤ褦Ѳ뤫˱ƶͻĴƤȤˤʤ

If conditions improve more rapidly than expected, it may be appropriate to raise interest rates more quickly; conversely, the pace of normalization may be slower if conditions turn out to be less favorable.

֤⤷ͽۤ®˲ΤǤС᤯夲뤳ȤŬˤʤ뤫⤷ʤդˡޤʤȤȽСﲽΥڡ٤ʤ뤫⤷ʤ


ǡǤ礦

󤸤˥塼ʹǤäƤʤ˥奢󥹤򤪴ˤʤäΤǤϤʤȻפΤǤ

䤬ܤΤϡǯ夲ɤä夲λޤ뤫⤷ʤҤ٤Ƥ뤳ȤʤΤǤ󡢤εդΥ⤢ȡݸ򤫤ƤϤΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢Ƥdz夬³ƤΤˡĤΰǡ餬۾ǧͻ򲿻ޤǤ³ƤΤȤԲIJȤۤޤ

⤳⡢եΨ2%٤ǤȼʬƤäƤ뤳ȤȯƤΤǤ󤬤⤽ȸΤǤ礦




ĹθȤʬäȤå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

߸GDPδطˤĤơΥ֥ǵ񤭤ޤ

2015ǯ1-3κ߸񤬡Ʊͤ˥ޥʥˤʤäƤΤˡ߸ˤƤȽ񤤤Ƥ뿷ʹΤϤȡ

䤬äƤ뤳Ȥΰ̣褯ʬʤȤϡ̤ǤεɤDzȤ⡢;ˤŪ᤮äǶ̣ͯޤ󤫡Ǥ⡢줬Ǥȡʡۤɤȴưޤ衣

ʤǤ⤽ǤɡƻϤɬפʤΤǤкĹˤĤƤƱǤ줾ƻϤŤͤ뤫ܤηкѤĹ롢ȡΤ褦Ϥʤˡܤ˺ưȤϤäȶͻ¤ʤƴäƤ⡢Τ褦ʤȤǤϷкѤĹʤΤǤ

ˤɤޤ礦͡

ˤƤ⡢䤬߸GDPδطˤĤƵ񤤤ȤФ󤬲⵭ǺܤƤΤǤʹҤΤʤǤ⡢ȴԤȤȤǤ礦礤˷빽

Υԡ

߸



ʬ䤹񤤤ƤĤȻפäΤǤǤʤ褦ǤɤǤȡƬ󤬤餫äƤޤͤ뤫⤷ޤ

Ƭ󤬤餬뤫ȸС

˽񤤤Ƥ뤫Ǥ

߸ˤ100110150硢GDP򲡤夲롢ȡ

ưפǤޤ͡θ夬ʤΤǤ

֤ޤ100κ߸ˤĴȤλͤ褦2ܤ˺߸ˤ110Ȥȡʬ10GDP˷׾夵롣߸ˤ3ܤ150äȡδ٤30GDPϤʬ夲

ˤʤޤ󤫡

߸ˤ100110ˤʤꡢʬ10GDP˷׾夵ȤΤʬޤ͡Ǥ⡢ä3ܤ110150äȡʬ40GDP˥ȤȻפΤˡβǤδ٤30ƤʤΤǡ30GDP򲡤夲ʤȤƤ뤫Ǥ

ȤԲIJʡȤפǤ礦

Ǥ⡢ϼ괺ɤ߿ʤƤޤ礦

߸ˤˤĤƤϡ˸äƤޤ

߸ˤ10070˸ꡢ餤60˸륱Ǥϡ3ܤθ2ܤθ10ʤʤäƤΤǡ10ʬGDP򲡤夲롢ȡ

㤪ͤӤ

ʸϤΡ
3ܤθ2ܤθ10ʤʤäƤΤǡ10ʬGDP򲡤夲פϡ3ܤθ2ܤθ20ʤʤäƤΤǡ20ʬGDP򲡤夲פδְ㤤ǤƤͤӤޤ


ǡǤ礦

ͤˤäƤϡ100κ߸ˤ70˸ˤGDP30줬60˸ȡGDP10롢ȡ

¤ϡΤ褦ʹͤ򤹤ͤϺФ˴٤äƤΤǤ

ɤȤȸС100κ߸ˤ110ˤʤä塢150ˤʤä硢3ܤGDPˤϡʬ40GDPΰˤʤäƤΤϴְ㤤ʤΤǤ2ܤGDP٤ƤɤGDP뤫ȸС30ǤʤǤĤޤꡢ3ܤκ߸ʺ߸ˤóۡˤ40Τ10ϡƱGDP¸뤿Ƥ졢ʳ30ʬˤʤȤȤʤΤǤ

Ĥޤꡢ2ܤ٤3ܤGDPʬ˺߸񤬤ɤͿƤ뤫ȤȤˤʤȡ10ۤɤκ߸񤬤Τ̤ǤȤʤС10˴褻줿ˤʤȤȤʤΤǤ

ȤȤˤʤС߸ˤ³̤Ǥ⡢̾⤽ڡ٤ˤϡGDP뤳ȤˤʤޤդˡԶơ߸ˤϤ褦ʶ̤Ǥϡ٤ϸ¤줿֤ˤơĤ긺ڡ٤ˤϡGDP򲡤夲뤳ȤˤʤΤǤ

ʬˤʤäǤ礦

ˤƤ⡢߸ȤΤϡΤ褦ʬˤ⡢פäʾκѤڤܤǤΤΤ褦ϤäƤ뤫ȸСIJΤʬˤʤǤ礦

ϡʳμ׹ܡ㤨иĿ;䡢佻񡢰ϸ͢Фʤɤϡͤޥʥˤʤ뤳ȤϤʤΤȿơ߸ξˤϥޥʥˤʤ뤳ȤΤǡ;פGDP𤵤ƤޤǤ

㤨СĿ;񤬻פäʾ˽Ĵ˿ӤƤǤ⡢ˡ߸񤬵޷˸ƤˤϤۤ˷ӤĤȤʤGDPοӤͽ۰ʾ㤯ʤ뤳ȤȤΤǤդˡĿ;ĴǤǤ⡢߸񤬵޷ƤʤGDPοӤͽ۰ʾ˹⤯ʤ뤳Ȥ⤢ޤ

⡢äˤդ礤ĺѤ꤬Ȥޤ





߸äϡ񤷤Ȼפäå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

٤ʤäƿʤΤǤ2015ǯ1-3β椬GDPˤĤƲ⤷Ȼפޤ

⤦ɬפϤʤǤǤ⡢ǰΤᡣ

2015ǯ1-3μ¼GDPĹΨǯΨ١ˤǤɤʤä

ϡ2.4%äȤʤäΤǤ

ޤ򸫤ʤаʤ͡âŪʥ٥ȤƤϡ527.3ߤȤȤǡ­Ǥ٥Ȥϻפޤ

դ

¼GDPο
ܤΥǡˤ

ʬˤʤäǤ礦

2014ǯ1-3ϡľζ߼פǼ¼GDPοब쵤˾夬äǤ̤ˤơοफ餹Фޤ㤤ΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ޤդθ򸫤СϤǴޤ٤⤷ޤ͡

ǤϡĹΨ򲡤夲ƤΤ

ΤοӤ2.4%ǤĸĿ;1.4%1.4%ȡۤɹĴȤۤɤǤʤʤ7.5%ȹ⤤Ӥ򼨤ƤΤǤ

Ǥϡνι⤤ӤΤ򲡤夲װȸСĽϡ12.9ߤ13.1ߤؤ0.2߿Ӥ˲᤮줬װȤϸʤΤǤ

ǤϡװʤΤ

¤ϡޤƤֺ̱߸ˤˤʤäƤȤΤǤ߸ʤäΥޥʥ3.2ߤޥʥ0.1ߤؤȸ㲼Ƥ뤿ˡǼ¼GDP3.1ߤۤɲ夲ƤΤǤ

߸ʤäޥʥ0.1ߤˤʤäȤȤ̣뤫ʬǤ礦

줬ץ饹ͤä顢γۤ߸ˤȤ̣ޤäơޥʥǤȤȤϡ߸ˤäȤȤʤΤǤ

ȤȤǡ1-3߸ˤƱ褦˸äƤǤθΥڡȤȤʤΤǤ

狼ˤǤ줬¼GDP򲡤夲װȤȤǤ

ǤϡƻϡΤȤɤΤ褦ƤΤǤ礦

С
졡ǣģǯΨ2.4

˼¼ǣģФؤδͿ٤Ǥ礭äΤϺ߸ˡȤ侮Ȥή̺߸ˤȤ礭ߤβȿǤ߸ˤˤĤʤ뤫⡢ĹΨνפʥȤʤ롣

Фϡ߸ˤȤ礭ȸäƤޤΤǤϤޤ󡣺߸ˤϡϥƤΤΡϤ긺ƤΤǤߤˡ߸ˤʺ߸ˡųʺ߸ˡ߸ˡή̺߸ˤȺʬƤߤƤ⡢ή̺߸ˤϤϤ긺ƤΤǤ



ǣģ:ǯΨץ饹

ΣǣģФ򲡤夲μϡȤҸˤѤ߾夲ֺ߸פȤǡĹΨβ夲ˣͿ߽Ф줿ղòͤۤ򼨤ǣģפǤϡ߸ˤУǣģФ˥ץ饹˸Хޥʥװˤʤ뤿

⡢߸ˤȽ񤤤ƤޤΤǤϤޤ󡣡ֺ߸ˤУǣģФ˥ץ饹˸ХޥʥװפȤΤϤΤȤǤ߸ˤäƤץ饹װˤʤ礬ΤǤ



ǣģСǯΨǥץ饹ģ

Ȥκ߸ˤȤǣģФ򲡤夲װȤʤä

⡢߸ˤȽ񤤤Ƥޤ͡⡢Ǥ⡢Τ褦˸äƤΤǤ־ʤʤɤκ߸äǣģФ򲡤夲Ƥ̤⤢롣Ѥ߾夬ä߸ˤ߳˲äʤȡˤĤʤ붲줬

ī

ǣģ13ǯΨ2.4͢2Ⱦץ饹Ĺ

͢ФοӤ񤬥ץ饹žƷʵǧǤֺ̱߸񤬼ϰʾĹΨ򲡤夲̤롣ֺ̱߸ϡͿ٥ץ饹ȤʤꡢĹΨͿ٤Ǥ礭Τ򲡤夲βϤȤʤǽ⤢롣

īϡ;٤ʤȤäƤɼԤˤʬʤȻפüޤäȤȤʤΤǤ礦߸ˤäȤϽ񤤤ƤʤȤɾǤޤ

ʤҤΤ󤸤Ƥ뿷ʹޤ

ȡ

ΣǣģСǯĹݴȤκ߸Ĵ

ܤȯɽιʣǣģСĴ͡®ͤϡʪưαƶ¼棰ǯΨƱȣȾϢ³äȾȤߤƤ󥯥ͽ¬äĿ;ͽ¬ƱäۤȤκ߸Ĵ䤷ƶ礭

μ¼ǣģĹΨ̱ͽ¬äͳΰĤϡȤκ߸ĴΥڡͽ¬ˤ䤫äȡֺ̱߸äĹΨؤδͿ٤ϣȡȾ֤äž

Ȥϡ߸ĴΥڡˤ䤫äȸäƤޤϺ߸ˤθΥڡȤ̣ΤǡΤʵҤȸǤ礦


ǡǤ礦

ʤȤøʵ¿ȡ

ޤޤǺ٤ȤƤɼԤʤؤɤʤȸȤޤǤʤΤǤ

Ǥ⡢ֺ̱߸ˤưGDPͽ¬񤷤ƤȰ˸Ĥơ󤫤ܤϡֺ̱߸ˤμऴȤþ󤸤ƤΤǤ

ΰ̣Ǥ⡢⤦Τƻ򤷤ߤȻפޤ




øʵ񤯿ʹҤβ¿ȤȻפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ϫƯʤϫĴȯɽΤǤ¸ΤǤ礦

ǡˤ2014ǯ٤1θͿۤϡǯ٤٤0.5%ȸΤǤ̾ܥ١¶⤬ä4ǯ֤ΤȤʤΤȤ

¶⤬ȤȤϲȴ򤷤Ȥ

Ǥϡʪ徺Ψ̣¼¶ϤɤʤäƤΤǤ礦

¼ǤƤС⤦ϡ٥ΥߥСȤʤȤǤ

ޤǤʤǤǤ⤢ļ¼١Ǥߤ3%⸺ƤΤȤ

Ǥϡ٥ΥߥСɤɤʤʤäƤͤ󡢤Ȱ֤ΰĤĤʤȤΡ

ǡʾΤȤˤĤƤϡͥåȤήƤ˥塼ΤäƤΤǤīƿʹ򸫤ƶäƤޤäΤǤ

椬ȤϡпʹĹ꿷ʹäƤΤǤʤ˰㤦ΤǤ顣

εΥԡ

¶

Ĺ꿷ʹϡ¼¶3%礭ʻ٤äƤΤǤ

ǤϡпʹϤɤ

졢Υ٥Ǥ̤εγ˾ΤǤϤʤΤǤ礦

ǡˤƤΤǤ

ҰεͿ1%ȡơ٤ˤϡǯ١¼3%Ȥ񤤤Ƥޤ

пʹΤʤľʤȤ

դФ뿼פ꤬ΤǤޤǤͿȤĴȡ顢ϫƯΤ¶οΨ夲ΤǤϤʤ⤤Ψ򼨤ҰεͿˤĤƼ夲ΤǤ礦

ޤޤǤϵޤ礦ɤΤ褦ʵιˤ褦ȡϿʹҤμͳ

ҰεͿ1%Ƚ񤤤٤ˡ¼3%Ƚ񤱤СҰεͿ¼Ǥ3%ȸΤɼԤϴ㤤ΤǤϤʤǤ礦

Ǥ⡢¼3%ȤʤäΤϡҰεͿǤϤʤϫƯΤ¶ʤΤǤ

¾ˤ⤢ΤǤϡΤ褦Ĵη̤Τä̤ο͡ϡ¶⤬夬äȸäƤˤϡ2014ǯ٤Ϥۤ¶⤬夬äƤʤΤϲΤʤΤȻפȤͽۤΤˡε˿ʹҤ褦ȤϤƤʤȤǤ

⤷ΤȤ˿ʹҤդƤΤǤСϡΤ褦ʥ٥ǤΤǤϤʤθϫƯʤĴǤϡ¶ξ徺Ψۤɹ⤯ФʤΤɼԤʬ䤹⤹٤ȻפΤǤ

Ρʤ¾夲Ψ㤤Τȡ

䤬äƤΤϡ¼ˤĤƤǤϤޤҰ̾ͤǤ¶1%Ȥ徺ƤʤȤˤĤƸäƤΤǤ

ΤʤΤǤ礦

ϡ

ʡޥߤ¾夲Ψˤϡ꾺ʬޤޤƤ뤳ȤطƤΤǤɤȤȸС꾺ʬϡĿͤȤƤߤгΤ¶⤬װˤϤʤΤǤϫƯΤȤƤߤ顢¶⤬װˤϤʤʤǤȤΤ⡢ϫƯΤǤϡ1ǯäƤŪˤΤʿǯϾ夬ʤǤĤޤꡢ꾺ʬϡΤפˤϱƶڤܤʤȡ

פˡʡʹҤʤɤ꾺ߤ¾夲Ψ뤳Ȥˤäơ¾夲Ψ⤯Ƥ뤫顢Τ褦ʥåפޤƤޤΤǤ

ʬˤʤäǤ礦

ˤƤ⡢Υ٥򸫤ơФϤʤľʤȻפ鷺ˤϤʤäΤǤ




ФϪʤΤȻפäå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤










Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

Ǥ㡼פˤĤƤɤפޤ

塢ʤȤ褹뤳ȤǤΤǤ礦Ȥ

ˤƤ⡢㡼פηбİɽ̲Ƥ⤦ǯвᤷȤ

㡼פ˴ؤ˥塼ؤʹʤʤä⤢äΤǡҤäȤ龯϶ӤƤΤʤƻפäȤ⤢äΤǤ򳫤Ӥɤ2000ߤĶֻ

ɤפޤ

ˡֻۤФˤϡꥹȥʳȴŪкϤʤ֤褦ȤϤƤʤΤǤ

Ǥϥ㡼פκԤƤ⡢̵ȤΤǤϤʤǤ礦

פΤǤȾüʾ֤³뤯餤ʤ顢äΤȰöϲҤݻơƺƷ֤ɤۤɸΨŪȻפޤ

Τʤ̵ʤȤïͤƤ̵ʤΤǤ顣鸽¤줿ʤȻפäƤ⡢ɤˤʤʤ礬ΤǤ

ˡݻȤǤĤʤ顢Ǥ餦٤бĿؤĤޤǤ¤³ĤбԿ˴٤äθǤäơк֤뤳ȤǤʤΤǤ

Υ㡼פϷбԿ˴٤äΤ

θޥϤäȤʤȴŪкǤĤȤǤʤȡ

ˡ줬¸ߤϸؤαƶθɬפȤƤ⡢θߤʤ乩ϡűह뤳ȤɬפʤΤǤ

ȤݻȤ֤ޤǤϡҰϸδطԤϡ㡼פޤǿʻ֤˴٤äƤȤȤ˵դȤϾʤΤǤ

ʤȤʤΤǤϤʤȡԤܤդƤǤϤʤȡ

ï⤬Τ褦ʴŤǤƤϡ̵̤˻֤в᤹ʤΤǤ

Τʤ褦˸äƤޤ㡼פηбĿؤҰǤ⽽ʬǽǤȿ˿ƤΤǤСʤϲ⤤ĤϤޤ󡣤ǤϤʤ˸ȿפäƤΤǤСơ㡼פ¤Ϻ̳Ķ˴٤äƤȤΤǤСʤöݻΤǤϤʤΤǤ礦äꤹ롢ȡ

ˡݻȤäƤ⡢ǥ㡼פˤʤʤǤʤΤǤƹGMפФƤߤƲ2009ǯ6˥ץ֥Ϣˮݻˡ11ˤŬѤưöݻ򤷤ޤθ塢GMȤɤäǤϤʤǤ

λ⡢GM̳Ķ˴٤äȤäȤʤäΤǤ̳Ķ˴٤ꡢ꤬ⷫդʤʤäȡܤĤʤͻԤʤɤ֤ܤǤɤϡץ֥ŬѤ뤷ʤʤäΤǤ

ʤϥꥫηФ꤬ܤˤĤΤǤ˴ؤƤܤϸ٤ǤϤʤΤǤ礦

䡢פΤǤ㡼פϤҤäȤĤȤ򴹤顢Ϻ̳Ķ˴٤äƤΤǤϤʤΤȡĤޤꡢ̤˷軻ȤȺ̳Ķ˴٤äƤޤΤǡκݤϡ»Ȥƽ٤Τ̤Τޤޤˤơƺ̳Ķ˴٤뤳Ȥ򤷤ƤǽΤǤ

Τ褦ʿʻ֤˴٤äƤʤȸΤǤС1200߰ʾλܶγۤ1ߤˤޤǸ餹ԤʤƸȦʤǤϤʤǤ

¼̳Ķ˴٤äƤФФƤۤ100%˶ᤤ뤳ȤǤΤǤ

ˤƤ⡢դǧŤ顢¿δطԤŤ̴ɤǤǤϻ̵֤̤ˤʤʤΤǤǤϡͭǽʿͺǽϤ⽽ʬʤޤޤǽǽ礭Ǥ礦

ݻˤʤСϹĺˤʤСοοͺबΥ뤳Ȥ;ʤǽΤǤͭǽʵѼԤǤС¾Ҥؤžۤ񤷤Ȥϻפޤ

Τʤ褦ˤ⤦ٸޤ˥㡼פμҰʤɤΤޤޤǺʬ˲ǽǤȹͤƤΤǤСä̤ʤΤǤʤĥФäǤΤޤޤǤ񤷤ȹͤΤǤСöϥ㡼פþäᤤȻפΤǤ

ꥷˤĤƤƱʤΤǤ

65ĤܤˤʤȸƤޤĤޤꡢ̳ؤεͿλʧ䡢IMFؤֺѤλޤȤȤʤΤǤĤĤޤǷФäƤĤޤȤޤ뵤ۤϤʤΤǤ

ꥷˤĤƤϡϹȺþΤƱǤŪþȤäƤʤΤǡ̱ϼκθĤޤǷФäƤʬʤΤǤ




㡼פϤĤ٤Ȼפå򤪴ꤤפޤ

͵blog󥭥󥰤
Υȥ꡼ϤƤʥ֥åޡɲ

ΥڡΥȥåץ