カテゴリ: 貿易戦争




A trade war with China is on today. At 12:01 Eastern time today, the United States fired the first shots in that war by imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. So a trade war that had been discussed, that had been threats, that had been words, is now real. And China has responded, hitting American goods with equivalent tariffs. This is a real economic gamble by President Trump. The world's two biggest economies are now involved in these trade actions, and NPR's Rob Schmitz has been following the story from Shanghai. Hi there, Rob.


ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: OK. So just talk us through the practicalities here. President Trump uses authority that he's been given by Congress to raise taxes, raise taxes on things that Americans import from China. China responds on American products. What happens then?

SCHMITZ: Well, then, you know, these tariffs will be passed on to consumers, both in the U.S. and China, as the companies whose products are targeted stop exporting and start to scramble to find new markets for their goods. That, of course, will mean higher prices for a range of products. Eventually, this is going to have a big impact on the flow of goods worldwide, as well as jobs. I spoke to longtime Beijing attorney James Zimmerman about this today, and here's what he said we can expect.


JAMES ZIMMERMAN: What we can expect is disruption in supply chains. We can expect job losses and a decline in investor and consumer confidence. And that's going to impact the stock market. And the impact on U.S. business is going to be - in my opinion, will be substantial.


INSKEEP: I'm glad that he mentioned supply chains, Rob, 'cause it's not that China sells me directly a product as a consumer. They're selling something to an American company. The product might even go back and forth between the U.S. and China and other countries several times. So how will U.S. businesses be affected here?


SCHMITZ: Well I've spoken to folks in the U.S. business community here, and they're telling me that China's government is already targeting their products in ways that sort of go beyond tariffs in unofficial ways. You know, they've seen customs officials inspecting more shipments of U.S. goods, slowing down business in other ways. On the Chinese side, China's government is now targeting Chinese tourism to the U.S. The Chinese embassy in Washington has issued a warning to Chinese tourists to be careful of shootings in the U.S., to watch out for customs agents, robberies and things like that. It's a clear message from them that Beijing has the power to prevent its tourists, as well, from spending money in the U.S.


INSKEEP: It's kind of like the soft equivalent of a tariff to respond on U.S. tariffs. Suppose it could end well. How would it end well? What is the best scenario here?


SCHMITZ: Well, I suppose the best scenario would be for China to say, yes, you're right. We'll give in and start treating U.S. businesses fairly and stop forcing them into joint ventures and stop requiring them to transfer their technology to China. But, you know, that's not really what's happening here. China's responding, as we've seen, with equivalent tariffs, and it's made no discernible moves towards changing these policies that seem to anger the Trump administration.


INSKEEP: Where you are in China, how are people on the streets or on social media or elsewhere responding?

 貴方は中国にいる訳ですが、現地で人々はどのように反応していますか? 街の人々やソーシャルメディアの反応ですが…

SCHMITZ: I think there's a lot of confusion, Steve. You know, the Trump administration fired the first shot in this trade war. China's government insisted it's being forced to retaliate. So Chinese people I've spoken to say that this is U.S. aggression against China. And at least in urban China, you know, these are people who drive American cars. They wear clothes with U.S. labels. They use iPhones and they use iPads on a daily basis. So they're thinking, look, you know, we're buying American goods. Why is America targeting us? And that confusion can easily lead to a sense of anti-Americanism if this trade dispute gets worse.

 困惑していると思います。ご承知のようにトランプ政権が1発目をぶっ放しました。そして、中国当局は、報復せざるを得ないと主張しています。私は話をした中国の人々は、これは米国の中国への侵略だと言っています。少なくても中国の都市部では、米国車を運転する人々がいます。米国ブランドの衣服を着ている人もいます。毎日iphoneやipad を使っている人がいます。彼らに言わせれば、自分たちは米国製品を買っている、と。何故自分たちを攻撃対象にするのか、と。ということで、貿易紛争が悪化すると簡単に反米感情が高まるでしょう。

INSKEEP: NPR's Rob Schmitz in Shanghai. Thanks.

SCHMITZ: Thanks.











The economic tea leaves right now are getting hard to read. The latest measure of economic growth showed the economy expanded at a lackluster 2 percent rate in the first quarter.


Estimates for second-quarter growth are much higher, and that has the Trump administration claiming its policies are working. Still, despite that rosy forecast, more analysts are pointing to worrying signs that with the expansion at nearly nine years and counting, a recession could be looming.



President Trump has long predicted that his policies will spur growth so much that the economy will expand at a rate well above 3 percent — maybe even 5 percent. Many economists have scoffed at rates that high.


A year ago, people were laughing when we talked about 3 percent GDP," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC this week. But he noted that some analysts forecast that the next reading of the nation's gross domestic product will show growth above 4 percent.


"We're expecting a big second-quarter GDP number," Mnuchin said. "We have an economy that's here because of the president's tax plan and the president's regulatory relief." Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is at an 18-year low.


But GDP numbers bounce around quarter to quarter. And more analysts see warning signs of a recession on the horizon.


One of those signs is a recent shift in the bond market. Ten-year Treasury bonds usually pay a noticeably higher interest rate than shorter-term two-year notes. That's because investors in long-term bonds are taking on a greater inflation risk. But lately, the gap between the two — known as the yield curve — has been shrinking.


"The yield curve may sound boring, and it does, but some believe that a flat or inverted yield curve is a recessionary canary in a coal mine," says Scott Simon, a former portfolio manager who oversaw nearly $1 trillion in mortgage securities at the bond trading firm PIMCO.


"If people think the economy is going to slow and inflation is going to go down, long-term interest rates tend to go down," he says.


When that happens, when plotted on a graph, the difference between the long and short bonds flattens out. It can even flip or invert — with short-term rates exceeding long-term yields.

That can be a sign that a lot of investors see trouble ahead, which is why it sets off a blinking red light on economists' dashboards. In fact, every recession in the past 60 years has happened after the yield curve's red light started blinking. And it's getting pretty close to that level again.

That may sound ominous. But Simon says the yield curve "hasn't been a very good predictor because it keeps predicting recessions that haven't occurred. It was wrong in 1994, it was wrong in 1998, it was right in 2001 [and] it was also right in 2006-07."

But he says he is not worried about it this time around. That's because ever since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have been doing unusual things that distort the bond market. And he says that has thrown off this recession meter.

But just about all economists agree there is one thing that could eventually drive the economy into recession: a trade war.


David Kotok, chief economist with Cumberland Advisors, says Trump is playing a dangerous game. "Who wants to play a game where everybody loses?" Kotok says.

Already, Kotok says, he has lowered growth forecasts for the second half of the year. Beyond the angry trade rhetoric, he says, the White House lacks a coherent approach to trade policy.

"You don't invite compromise when you scream at the other guy," Kotok says. And beyond that, he asks: "What's the policy of the United States? Is it [Peter] Navarro? Is it Mnuchin? Is it Wilbur Ross? Is it Larry Kudlow? Is it the president, who changes his mind back and forth every day? How do you proceed?"

Kotok says businesses are delaying investments already amid the uncertainty, and that slows growth. He is not predicting recession yet. But if the trade fight grows into a full-blown trade war, he says that definitely could drive the country into recession.

On Trade, Trump Administration Likes to Leave Other Countries Guessing











 Don't be cute with us. なのだと。






 A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! 

 Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. 

 If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! 

 The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!

















Surprised that Harley-Davidson, of all companies, would be the first to wave the White Flag. I fought hard for them and ultimately they will not pay tariffs selling into the E.U., which has hurt us badly on trade, down $151 Billion. Taxes just a Harley excuse - be patient! 



President Trump is unhappy with Harley-Davidson's plans to move production of motorcycles it sells in Europe overseas, in response to growing trade friction between the United States and Europe.


In a tweet sent out Monday afternoon, Trump said he was surprised that Harley-Davidson "of all companies, would be the first to wave the White Flag. I fought hard for them...."


European officials last week imposed stiff tariffs on a wide range of U.S.-made goods sold within the European Union. The move came in response to President Trump's recent decision to slap tariffs on European imports.


In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Monday, Harley-Davidson said the tariffs imposed by the EU "would have an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region."


The company reported $5.65 billion in revenues last year and Europe is its largest overseas market, with almost 40,000 customers buying motorcycles there in 2017.


The European tariffs have jumped from 6 percent to 31 percent, the company said. That increase will add $2,200 on average to the cost of each motorcycle sold in the EU and cost the company $90 million to $100 million a year, the filing said.


"Increasing international production to alleviate the EU tariff burden is not the company's preference, but represents the only sustainable option to make its motorcycles accessible to customers in the EU and maintain a viable business in Europe," the filing said.


Trump has frequently heaped praise on the company as a strong manufacturer with a long history of making motorcycles domestically.


But after Monday's announcement, Trump said the company should be patient, noting, "ultimately they will not pay tariffs selling into the E.U., which has hurt us badly on trade, down $151 Billion."


The company did not say where production would be shifted, or how many jobs might be affected, but said the move would take nine to 18 months to complete.










This back and forth over tariffs between the U.S. and China is continuing. The White House has made public the list of Chinese exports that it plans to hit with steep tariffs. And then just this morning, Beijing announced similar plans to put tariffs on more than 100 types of U.S. products. NPR's Rob Schmitz is in Shanghai. Hey, Rob.


ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: Good morning, Noel.


N. KING: So what products are the Chinese targeting this morning?


SCHMITZ: Well, first, I think I should clarify some things because there's been a lot of tariff talk this week.


N. KING: Yeah, there sure has.


SCHMITZ: And (laughter) so for the sake of clarification, these are the second set of tariffs from China this week. The first set were imposed by Beijing on Monday, and they targeted about $3 billion worth of U.S. products. Now, this set of Chinese tariffs announced today will be much bigger if they're imposed. So the Chinese are going after 106 U.S. products worth $50 billion. And they'll include soybeans, sorghum products, beef, cars, chemicals, corn products and aircraft. Now, there are two products among these that are big-ticket U.S. exports to China - soybeans and aircraft.


Soybeans - I think they'll be hit hard should these tariffs go through. Aircraft, on the other hand - not so sure. Boeing makes different classes of aircraft that it exports to China. And this particular tariff will target aircraft between 15,000 and 45,000 kilograms in weight. Some analysts say this will include some of Boeing's smaller commercial aircraft, like the single-aisle 737. But other larger Boeing models will reportedly not be impacted by this. Regardless, Boeing shares in pre-market trading in the U.S. sank more than 3 percent on this news. And predictably, soybean futures have pretty much tanked.


N. KING: I mean, Rob, this sounds pretty serious. Is it?


SCHMITZ: Yeah, it sounds serious, but it's important to note here that China's government has not specified when these tariffs will be imposed. Given that these tariffs were announced the day after the Trump administration announced it was planning 25 percent tariffs on more than 1,000 Chinese products, it's pretty clear today's action is China retaliating for that. So while the markets will probably not react favorably to any of this news, it's important to note here that neither the Chinese tariffs nor the Trump tariffs - both on products worth $50 billion each - neither of these sets of tariffs have been imposed yet. China's planned tariffs seem to be a pre-emptive strike that Beijing will unleash if the Trump administration goes ahead with its tariffs on Chinese products.

「はい、深刻です。しかし、中国が具体的に何時こうした関税を発動するかを明らかにしていないことに留意することが重要です。トランプ政権が1000以上の中国製品に対して25%の関税をかけることを計画していると発表した後でこうした関税措置が発表されたことを考えると、本日の措置は米国に対する中国の報復であることが明らかです。こうした措置を市場が歓迎することはないでしょうが、中国の関税措置も、そして、トランプ政権の関税措置も ― どちらも総額500億ドルに上る輸出品を対象としている ― まだ発動されていないことに留意することが重要です。中国の関税措置は、トランプ政権が中国の製品に対して関税をかけると同時に発動されるようになっている、先制攻撃のようにも見えます」

N. KING: I mean, I know we've thrown around the phrase a lot lately, but it does seem like we are possibly on the verge of a trade war, but that it hangs on President Trump's tariffs. Now, is there any chance that both sides can just come to the table and prevent an all-out trade war?


SCHMITZ: Yeah, there is. And both sides have been talking to each other. China's vice premier, Liu He, has spoken with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. But so far, not much progress has been made. We still have at least 30 days of a comment period on the proposed Trump administration tariffs on Chinese products before the president would take action. So we're looking at a month between now and early May when the world's two largest economies have an opportunity to sit down and negotiate a peaceful solution to all of this. Otherwise, it looks like - from today's announcement in Beijing - that China is prepared to retaliate against tens of billions of dollars' worth of U.S. products if the Trump administration goes ahead with its tariffs.


N. KING: Wow. NPR's Rob Schmitz in Shanghai. Thanks, Rob.

SCHMITZ: Thank you.