This slump won’t end until 2031

This slump won’t end until 2031
Commentary: Our predicament parallels the Long Depression of 1870s
今回の不況は2031年まで続く？
コメンタリー：1870年代の大不況と似ている今回の不景気

By Matthew Lynn
ロンドン（MarketWatch） — 過去に市場が危険なまでに不安定化していった事例がある。ドイツは新しい金融システムを採用し、欧州全体に安いドイツマルクであふれた。そのときギリシャはイタリアとフランスと金融政策で提携したところだったが、その提携を維持することもままにならなかった。金融市場の緩和が行われたところだったのだ。新技術が生産とコミュニケーションに変化をもたらし、お金が光の速度で国境を越えて移動する。そして新しい産業のパワーにより世界には安く生産された品々がどんどん流れ、古い産業の崩壊を招いていった。すべてが完全に崩壊されたとき、このシナリオしか選択肢はなかった。

これは2012年のロンドンで起こることの予言？ニューヨーク？ベルリン？正確には違う。これは1873年のウィーンでの出来事だ。
続きを英語で読む。This slump won’t end until 2031

Moody'sがスペインの銀行を格下げを視野に

Moody's may downgrade Spanish banks

By Sue Chang SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's on Monday placed eight Spanish banks and two holding companies on review for possible downgrades due to expectations of increased losses stemming from their commercial real estate exposure. The move was prompted by Moody's reassessment of all Spanish banks which indicated a projected decline in earnings generation capacity due to a weaker growth outlook for the Spanish economy. The ten affected entities are: Banco Cooperativo, Banco Sabadell; Bankia and its holding company, Banco Financiero y de Ahorro; Bankinter, CaixaBank and its holding company, La Caixa; Confederacion Espanola de Cajas de Ahorro; Caja Rural de Granada; Ibercaja Banco; and Lico Leasing.

MarketWatch

The Buffett strategy

The Buffett strategy

• Free cash flow, or cash on hand after covering costs, of at least $250 million. Without strong free cash flow, a company would find it tough to expand its business, develop a new product, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

• Net profit margin of 15% or better. Net profit is net income divided by revenue, and can indicate whether a company has control of its costs.

• Return on equity, which is the amount of profit returned as a percentage of shareholder equity, or a firm’s total assets minus liabilities, of at least 15% for the past three years and including the most recent quarter.

• A dollar’s worth of earnings creating at least a dollar’s worth of shareholder value over the past five years.

• Ample liquidity — meaning only stocks with a market capitalization of $500 million or greater, though the American Association of Individual Investors believes that number should be greater than $1 billion.

出所：What Buffett’s IBM buy says about his next move
Screening for undervalued stocks the Oracle of Omaha would like