July 26, 2005

新時代の「新しいインフレ」5

日本の金余りと低金利については以前に述べた通りだ。面白いことに同様の現象が世界経済においても顕著化している。長期金利BRICsの台頭によって原油を初めとした鉱物資源価格が高騰する中での、金余りと長期金利の低下の両立は非常に興味深い。これまでの常識で考えれば、将来のインフレリスクやリスクプレミアムを折り込んで、長期金利は上昇するというが普通の見解であった。予想に反し低下する(低水準を維持する)長期金利は、過去と現在のインフレメカニズムの差を映し出しているのではなかろうか。(グラフ:ユーロ、米ドル、日本円の10年スワップ金利比較<%>)

長期金利の低下が意味するものとは、将来的インフレリスクの低下、つまり低インフレの持続である。かつて誰もが恐れたインフレのリスクが、軽減されたは何故か?過去と現在とで一体何が変化したのであろうか。個人的には「グローバル化」の進行がその原因だと確信している。BRICsの近代化(BRICsはグローバル化の恩恵を享受して成長したともいえるが)によって、先進国経済のグローバル化プロセスがが完成しつつあると考える。「国際的分業」と「アウトソーシング」がそれである。

途上国がより高度に工業化することで世界的な生産余力が増大し、需要と供給の関係からインフレにはなり難くなった(むしろデフレ傾向)。どこかの工場で需要に供給が追いつかなくなっても、すぐに他国の工場で生産が始まり供給の不足分を補えるといった感じである。また賃金の上昇もインフレの大きな要因のひとつであったが、世界レベルでより人件費が安い国へアウトソースすることで、過度の賃金上昇が起こらなくなったのである。インドのソフト産業や中国のコールセンター等がその好例である。企業の人件費のコントロールがより容易になったのある。

この傾向は世界的に暫く続くであろう。インフレはかつてのそれと異なり緩やかなものになる可能性が高い。無論多くのの後進国が消費大国へと成長し、世界な需要がその供給を上回るようになれば、事態は全く異なってくる。しかしBRICsを始めとした後進国がそうなるまでには、まだ大分時間がかかりそうだ。前回述べた通り、我が日本国は消費大国へと舵を切った。内需、つまり消費中心の経済への過渡期にあると考えている。急激なインフレが起き難いことは前記の通りだが、デフレに悩む日々は終わろうとしている(個人的には終わったと思っている)。

例外もある、不動産である。その価格は日本人の固有性を反映して、相対的に大きな上昇になる考えている。そして固有性とは日本人の非国際性だ。生産やサービスは他国に分散またはアウトソ−ス出来ても、日本人の生活や居住を国内にのに依存する可能性が高い。要は「日本人は英語もあまり出来ないし、コミュニケーションも苦手だから、海外に移住するのは無理だろうし、望まないだろう」ということだ。ここには経済原理は働かない、需給のみの世界だ。こういうと、不動産が上昇しない理由に人口減少を挙げる人も多いようだが、人口減少のペースはインフレの進行速度に比較して十分にゆっくりであろうから、不動産市場の成長の妨げには当面ならないであろう。また株価も(固有性は不動産に劣後するが)不動産の上昇を追うかたちで上昇すると考える。



gogogogo5555 at 13:20│Comments(235)TrackBack(1) 経済 | 雑記

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JGBは今日の米雇用統計を控えレンジ継続 10年債で1.20−1.50 程度でのレンジを当面は変えそうにない 中期的には欧州金利の反転、米国金利の上昇を受けることが十分あり得ようが 中期債は0.5後半に入り買いにくい 銀行発行の債券が良く売れ東京三菱とみずほ...

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