ŷʹ

2005ǯ05

4ܤμΨ4.4(34.5)4ο߽幩ǯ+0.6ȯɽ줿桼ʲܤ˥ɥߤϼ¼Υɥ꤬108.50ߤĶ뤳ȤǤ˾ư³

ԾΥɥߤϡ̲ߤʲαƶ107.95ߤǼϤޤꡢ107.8590ߤͤ108.30߶᤯ޤ㤤ʤޤ줿͢дȤΥɥ108.05߶᤯ޤͤ򲼤1᤮ˤ108.3540ߤޤǥɥ㤤ꡢ108.50ߤǤϥץ͢дȤΥɥ˾ͤ108.25ߤޤͤ򲼤ԾǤΥɥ֤MSCIΥХ󥹤DZ㤤ǤǽŦ졢Ծ줬ä˽Ƥӥɥ꤬ޤꡢ壵Ǥ108.10ߤǼƤ롣桼ɥ1.2475ǼϤޤ1.2450ȡȥåץ䥪ץߤΥ桼꤬®1.2400Υץȥꥬǰ1.236570ޤʲȤʤäȥץ꤬䤹1.23801.2410Υ󥸤Ǽä³1.24ߤ϶Ƥͤ򲼤5ˤ1.2375ǼƤ롣桼ߤ134.70ߤǼϤޤꡢ134.6070ߤξư³ܶڤ䡢桼ɥεǰ쵡134.50ߤ߰133.8085ߤޤǵ10᤮133.95134.25ߤưǾ֤Ȥʤä3Ǥϥɥߤξ徺134.35߶᤯ޤͤᤷ壴ˤʤȥɥߤβȼƤӥ桼꤬ޤꡢ5Ǥ133.80ߤǼƤ롣

ûȥͽ

+-------------+----------------+------------------+
̲ߡûȥɡȥžݥ
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åɥߡ|åס|107.67
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥰡105.185/9)107.67 Stop Profit
ȡʡ219pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥɱߡ|åס| 196.37
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥰡197.555/27)196.37S/L
ȡʡ117pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥߡ|åס| 81.81
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ 81.64 (5/20)81.81 Stop Profit
ȡʡ246pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+

ɥߡߤžǤåץȥɤžȤȤ
ꡢȸȤǤ礦

ɥߺǸβλϤޤǤɤޤƹԤΤڤߤǤ

ΥӥȤ줬³Ǥɤ򤪲ᤴ

ɥNYԾϵپEUˡڤݤե󥹤ι̱ɼαƶǥ桼̰¤ή줬³55ȿɼϻͽۤ61Υ̱ɼؤ԰´ޤꡢ桼ɥϺǯ10ο礭ͤ򲼤

ԾΥɥߤ107.95ߤǼϤޤ108ˮ͢дȤΥɥ䡢桼ߤ˰107.8085ߤޤǥɥ꤬ޤä桼ǥɥ⤬ʤߤαƶǥɥߤ㤤ϤޤꡢƤ108ưȤʤäμ׻Ծ줬پΤμϹ졢֤᤮ˤ굡ڤưߤ107.85108ߤΥ󥸤Ǽ³ܻ֤θ6Ǥ108ߤǼƤ롣桼ɥϾͤνŤŸ1.2520Ϥޤꡢ1.2500ɤռ1.25151.2530Υ桼ͷǤμ³եɶڤ1.25151.24901.2475ˤ륪ץȥꥬǰ쵡1.2475ޤǥ桼꤬®θ1.2485ͤ1.2465դޤǥ桼꤬ޤä֤ˤϻüԤ޸1.246575ξʥ󥸤Ǽ졢ܻ֤θ6Ǥ1.2475ǼƤ롣桼ߤ135.05ߤͤ˰135.30ߤޤǾ徺桼ɥ뤬1.2500ȡϥեɤ135ߤ򲼲134.5050ߤޤ꤬³֤᤮ˤϼüԤ޸134.6075ߤǼ³ܻ֤θ6Ǥ134.73ߤǼƤ롣

530͡ɥ108.00(107.97)桼ɥ1.2475(1.2579)桼134.73(135.79)

ɥNYԾ줬پηīΥ˥ػԾǤϡܤΥե󥹹̱ɼνиĴEUˡݷ褵뤳Ȥμ¤Ȥʤꡢ饯Τϥƥӱţշˡȯˤϲ25ƤڤɬפǺ󤬾ǧʤäΥǡ61Υι̱ɼǺƤӵݤΤܤ롣
˥ԾǤϡ桼ɥ1.252530ǼϤޤ轵NY1.2580դ礭ͤ򲼤ƻϤޤäƤ롣ɥߤ107.95(NY107.9500)桼ߤ135.20(NY135.7580)ȥ桼꤫Ϥޤä

ԾΥɥߤϥ桼ɥεαƶ108.1520ߤޤ㤤夲줿ˮ͢дȤΥɥ˾ͤŪȤʤä108ߤ꤬®107.8085ߤޤǥɥ꤬ʤߡȺƤӥɥ꤬ޤ107.75߶դޤDzͤ鳤濴˥ɥ㤤ޤ107.9095ߤޤ㤤ᤵ졢Ծθ5Ǥ107.90ߤǼƤ롣桼ɥ1.251015ޤǵ1.2500ɤˤ뤳ȤϤǤ1.254045ޤͤᤷ1.25301.2540Υ󥸤Ǽ³ȺƤͤư1.251520ޤͤ򲼤1.25201.2530ξʥ󥸼³֤θ5Ǥ1.2525ǼƤ롣桼ߤϡ135.20ߤޤǵƼϤޤꡢ135.50߶᤯ޤͤᤷͤϽŤ135.0510ߤޤͤ򲼤3᤮㤤135.25դޤ᤹105.1025ߤξͤνŤŸ³֤θ5Ǥ135.15ߤǼƤ롣

ûȥͽ

+-------------+----------------+------------------+
̲ߡûȥɡȥžݥ
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åɥߡ|åס|107.28
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥰡105.185/9)107.28 Stop Profit
ȡʡ219pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥɱߡ|åס| 196.14
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥰡197.555/27)196.14 S/L
-90pt˥ȡʡ117pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥߡ|åס| 81.67
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ 81.64 (5/20)81.67 Stop Profit
ȡʡ246pt

ե󥹤ɼ̤ơäȥѥȤΤȻפäƤޤˤ餺
ŤīǤ͡ơžǤǸβλϤޤǤ
ɤʤޤ

ɤ򤪲ᤴ



ܤΥե󥹤EUˡڤι̱ɼ29ϼ»ܤ졢530()ϥɥNYԾ줬پǣϢ٤Ȥʤ롢ΥݥĴ⽪λγԾϴ׻ʼȤʤäǤϴƷȤʥɥξ徺Ωä

ԾΥɥߤ107.80ߤǼϤޤ107.95߶դͤˡ107.75107.90ߤξưǴ׻ȤȤʤä桼ɥϡڡץߤ㤤1.2500ळȤǤ1.25251.2550ξʥ󥸤Ǥμ³桼ߤϡ135ߤΥץߤ㤤DzͤưŪǡ135.05105.30ߤΥ󥸤Ǵ׻ʼ³

NYԾΥɥߤϡ4θĿͽ+0.7(3+0.5ͽ+0.7)4θĿ;ٽФ+0.6(3+0.9+0.6ͽ+0.8)4PCEʻؿǯ+1.6(3+1.72+1.6)ȯɽ줿Ʒ϶Ԥ㤤˥ɥߤ107.85ߢ108.0510ߤޤ㤤ʤޤ줿108.20߰ʾǤˮ͢дȤΥɥ˾ͤŤʤ107.9095ߤޤDz5ߥԿ괶ؿ86.9(®85.3ͽ86.6)ȯɽ줿108ݻǤ107.7580ޤǰɥ꤬ʤѶŪ˥ɥ⸫줺107.80108.05ߤΥ󥸼³NYԾ107.97ߤǼ򽪤Ƥ롣桼ɥϡե󥹹̱ɼľ˹ݥĴ⽪λƷкѻɸˤȿŸ³ե󥹤Υ饯Τţշˡڤ̱˸ƤӤľĴǤȿФ55󤫤52˸Ȥˡ1.25501.258590ޤ㤤ޤäθϡ1.25651.2585ξư˽ϤNYԾ1.2579Ǽ򽪤Ƥ롣桼ߤ135.25ߤͤˡ桼ɥξ徺135.80ߤޤǽ˾ͤڤ夲NYԾθ135.65135.80ߤξưǽϤNYԾ135.79ߤǼ򽪤Ƥ롣

527͡ɥ107.97(107.96)桼ɥ1.2579(1.2511)桼135.79(135.06)

ʥ˥塼ޤ

󥭡潨ʣˤϢ³ǵϿǥȥåפʥåܡåɥåȯեɤνˤϤޤꡢǿ̵Ǥ˽ä䷳Ũ˵žƣϢ桢ʥΡξϣͥγ֤Ƥޤä
ꥦեɤˤޤ줿֤ɤ뤫ʬʤɤѲ뤫ʬʤǤסξ֤ʥåܡȤ館Τ񤷤äȤȤХåȤοġʤˤ򳰤ƣࡣ꤬ӥ֥꡼ä裴ʤΤĤ򿶤餵ƻݤ줿
ΡϿϤ⤦ʤã롣ΥޥʡλΨʤƵˤʤƤܡܤȤɤɤ礭ΤСܿͤǤۡǤƤϤʤפ򤫤줿ϤФǡΤڤʤǷиȤΤʤ֥˳ɡפ˾Ϥ⤬줷Ǥ롣


塢ʥåܡ롣®90ε򡢾楯饹ΥХå館뤳ȤǤʤɤѲ뤫ͽۤĤʤꤲƤܿͤɤʤ뤫狼ʤʤȤ¸ߤ峦˳ӤꤿǤ

ưʥåܡΤ褦ʤΤ⤷ޤ켫Ȥ˰ջפϤʤɤѲΤï狼ʤ狼äȤƤ⡢νִ֡㤦᤯̯ѲѤƤޤ򲿤Ȥ狼ȶϫƤ䤿ϡΤ褦ʬ夵뤷̵꤬Τ⤷ޤ󤬡

ä˿ᤫƤޤСƱˤĤƤ椱Τ⤷ޤ͡ϡɤäư˿ᤫ뤫ǤͤĤȤȤʤΤΤޤ

ɤ򤪲ᤴ

ػԾΥɥߤ107.95ߡ108.10ߤξư³108.2050ߤˤƤˮ͢дȤΥɥ䡢ʿѳ徺ǾͤŤŸˤʤäƤ뤬ɥNYԾ줬轵پ3Ϣ٤򹵤ݥĴơͻҸࡼɤޤäƤ107.90ߤ107.75ߤޤǥɥ꤬ʤ107.75107.85ߤξʥ󥸤ưȤʤꡢ֤θ5Ǥ107.85ߤǼƤ롣

桼ɥ1.25051.2525ξư³1.2500Ǥϥץȼ㤤Υ桼㤤ǡ1.2500ݻƤ롣ȥݥĴΥɥ㤤1.2540᤯ޤǾ徺֤θ5Ǥ1.2535ǼƤ롣

桼ߤ135.0525ߤξư³135ߤΥץߤ㤤ռƤ뤬ͤư⸫ʤˤʤȺƤ135ߤưĤޤ134.9500ߤޤDz3᤮ˤϥݥĴᤷ135.2025ߤޤǾ徺֤θ5Ǥ135.20ߤǼƤ롣

ûȥͽ

+-------------+----------------+------------------+
̲ߡûȥɡȥžݥ
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åɥߡ|åס|107.19
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥰡105.185/9)107.19 Stop Profit
ȡʡ219pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥɱߡ|󡡡| 197.55
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ󥷥硼ȡ196.655/24)197.55 S/L
ȡʡ207pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
åݥߡ|åס| 81.48
+-------------+----------------+------------------+
ݥ 81.64 (5/20)81.48 S/L
ȡʡ246pt
+-------------+----------------+------------------+

žݥȤɥߤϤʤʤȴޤ󡣤ޤɥ㤤ή줬³ƤޤѲ˵Ĥʤ㤤ŬŸǤ
ĥ硼ȤžΤɥߡ桼ɥޤƹӤ
ĤƹԤǤ͡

Ͼ󤬤ޤɽ˽ФƤʤǤΥǥα̱
ơ٤ϲФƤΤ

ɤ򤪲ᤴ

Ρƺ̳ĹΡƺ̳ʰ˴ؤ屡԰ѾڸǡǰԶѹդ뵬Ϥǰزפ¹Ԥ٤ǡʤкѤ»ʤꥹ⤿餹פȷٹ𤷱ᤷ줿ޤ֥ϥɥ񻺤̤ѤԤʤפ𤷥ɥ㤤¿ޤä⥦Ϣۤϡإե줬Ƥ¤FRBϿŤʥڡǤ夲³Ǥȯ³ƶ徺³ǽ򼨺̱()Υ֥ȤǤϡؿ̱Ū˰ݻ٤Υᥫ˥˲פƤ٤ȯɽƤɥߤưϸǤäɥ̹ŸǡߤϥDZߤᤷ߹ưϤޤäкѻɸǤϡܤ줿1ȾGDPͤϡǯΨ3.5(®͡3.1ͽۡ3.6ˡǥե졼3.2(ͽۡ3.3®͡3.3)ȯɽ줿Ծؤȿä

ԾΥɥߤ108.10ߤǼϤޤꡢ107.8590ߤޤǥɥ꤬ޤäɥߤϥɥ̹αƶ㤤Ϥ̱Ԥˤ̱ڤ夲ꤹȯǥɥ㤤Ϥޤ108.2530ߤޤǥɥ㤤ޤä͢дȤΥɥ꤬108.20߰ʾ˸ɥߤξͤŤƤ롣108.3540ߤû굡ڤΥȥåץ㤤롣桼ɥϡͽꤵƤEUˡڤΥե󥹹̱ɼǤϰȤȿлٻȾꡢȤꥹإåΥ桼꤬³Ƹ롣1.2550ǼϤޤ1.2575ޤǥ桼㤤ʤ1.25501.251520ޤ꤬ޤä1.2500ΥץߤΥ桼㤤䡢ڤΥɥ㤤DzߤޤäƤ뤬1.2530ߤޤǾͤνŤŸ³Ƥ桼ߤ135.75ߤͤ135.5075ߤξư³Ƥ135.35߶᤯ޤͤ򲼤135.3560ߤΥ󥸼³

NYԾΥɥߤ108.2530ߤͤˡܤ1ȾGDPβͤ3.5ȻԾͽۤ䲼ƤȤʤäȯɽľȿ108Ǥμ³108.10ߤ꤬® 108.8590ߤޤǥɥ꤬ޤäͤ108.15ߤޤǤǡ108.85108ߤΥǤμ³NY֤θ5Ǥ107.96ߤǼƤ롣桼ɥϡѹƹ轵ˤϥꥢǡǡϢ٤򹵤ΥݥĴꥹưޤä桼ɥΰ1.253035꤬®1.2510դǤϥ䡦Ȥ㤤ߤ¤äƤ롣ƥ˥Ǥ1.2490פʥݥȤǤοư˰1.2495᤯ޤޤ줿1.250525Υ桼ͷǶ󥸼³NYԾθ5Ǥ1.2511ǼƤ롣桼ߤϡԾưѤ135.3560ߤΥ󥸤ǼƤ桼ɥβ䥹Ρƺ̳Ĺο̱ھ夲ץå㡼135ߤ߰134.90߶᤯ޤޤ줿134.95135.10ߤΥ桼ͷ߹礤ȤʤäNY֤θ5Ǥ135.06ߤǼƤ롣

526͡ɥ107.96(107.71)桼ɥ1.2511(1.2600)桼135.06(135.74)

ΥڡΥȥåץ