名言

権力は、統治の不可欠の手段  : 危機の二十年

名言

権力が政治の本質的要素であることを理解できなかったので、過去の国際統治の試みは失敗した

権力は、統治の不可欠の手段である。

いかなる現実的な意味においても、統治を国際化するということは、権力の国際化を意味する。

とは言え、国際統治は、現実には、統治に必要な権力を提供する国家による統治ということになる。

危機の二十年

危機の二十年

fecebookコメントヘ

ジム・ロジャースの娘に送る言葉

歴史を勉強しなさい。
他人に流されてはいけない。

+++++++++++++++++++

ラベル:

任天堂 : Re-invent the relationship E3 2006

今年の"W3 2006"での、任天堂の社長 岩田 聡氏のスピーチです。
いくつかのブログで感動した! 素敵! と書かれていた。

私も読んでみました。 本当に感動した。
通常、自社の製品を宣伝するスピーチを読むと"下心が透けて見えて"しまう。
このスピーチは、それを凌駕する共感がある。

残しておきたいと、心から感じた。
掲載が削除される前に、ここから、コピペした。

強調部分は、私の独断です。

==================

ありがとう、そしておはようございます。


私が任天堂の社長になった時、我々は会社の新しいゴールを決定致しました。
ゲーム人口を拡大することです。

これを実現する為に、今ゲームをお楽しみいただいている皆様だけでなく、我々は二つの異なった顧客層を目指さねばなりませんでした。かってビデオゲームで遊んだ経験はあるが、すでに興味を失ってしまった人たち。そして、今まで一度も遊んだことの無い人たちです。どうすれば出来るのか?

この業界では、いつも同じ方向性での改善が試みられてきました。それは、「もっと凄いゲームを作る」という方向性です。しかし、ゲームを辞めてしまった人や、ノン・ゲーマーの方にアプローチする為には、「もっとすごいゲーム」はほとんど無力です。

そこで、人とゲームの関係を変えること、すなわち、ゲームのコントローラインターフェースを刷新することが、論理的だと考えました。このアプローチにより、もっと幅広い層の顧客に訴求でき、コア・ユーザーの方にも魅力を感じていただけると思います。
コア・ユーザーは常に我々の最重要顧客ですので、この点は重要です。

これを最初に実践したのがニンテンドーDSでした。
創造的破壊を伴うイノベーションではよくあることですが、最初は一部の人々の間で混乱を起こしました。しかし、ニンテンドッグスで、タッチペンを使って犬をかわいがり、マイクで語りかけた時、世界中の人が理解し始めてくださいました。
次に、日本では、脳活性化ソフトを発売しました。テレビゲームをされたことのない何百万人という方々が、これらのタイトルをプレイされました。業界の多くの人は、ゲームをしない人にゲームをしてもらうことは不可能だと考えていました。しかし今、この流れは西洋にも広がりつつあります。


では、Wiiで我々はどのようにしてこの戦略を継続するのでしょうか?

Wiiリモコンの片手での操作は、ちょうどDSのタッチスクリーンに相当するものです。これにより、ノンゲーマーやゲームをされなくなったユーザーへの障壁を取り払うことになります。全ての皆様にとって、これは快適なものです。
更に、かつてはゲームをしたけれど、今は興味を失った方の多くは、以前に遊んだタイトルの記憶を今もお持ちなのです。そういったゲームを、我々はバーチャルコンソール機能で再登場させます。そしてバーチャルコンソールは、新しいシンプルなゲーム創造のための『生きた実験室』にもなります。

Wiiリモコンでの創造的なアプローチと、バーチャルコンソールのビジネスモデルによって、恐らく「テトリス」のようなゲームが再び実現可能になるでしょう。

ゲーム機の性能は過去20年でどんどん向上したのですが、悪くなったものもあります。それは、起動に必要な時間がどんどん長くなってしまったことです
私は、ゲームを企画することも開発することも遊ぶことも大好きです。しかしながら、最近私は以前よりも忙しくなりました。ゲームを始める前に数十秒以上の待ち時間が必要ということが、本当に辛く感じるようになりました。特にDSで、ふたを閉じればスリープ、ふたを開けたら再開、という素早さを味わってからは、尚更です。皆さんも同じではないですか?

もしも熱心なユーザーさえもフラストレーションを感じるのであれば、マスマーケットのユーザーに、それ以上我慢してもらうことが出来るのでしょうか?
我々が変わらない限り、決してゲーム人口を拡大することはできません。

Wiiハードは、この問題を解決します。
Wiiでは、バーチャルコンソールのゲームやOperaBrowser等のフラッシュロム上のアプリケーションを電話やテレビと同じくらい早く、数秒以内に起動できます。

このハードが持つ機能をもう1つ紹介しましょう。
どんなにパワフルなゲーム機でも、電源が入っていない時には、何もできません。我々は、Wiiの電源が切れているように見える時でも、様々なサービスが提供できるようにゲーム機を設計しました。Wiiは、『眠らないシステム』になります

Wiiは、私たちが「WiiConnect24」と呼んでいる機能によって、自動的にスタンバイモードに入ります。ファンは廻りませんが、一部の機能は動作します。そしてその時、小さな豆電球1個分程度の少ない消費電力で稼働します。

ここで重要なことは、Wiiハードがインターネットと常時接続可能になるということです。ハードコアユーザーに対しては、ユーザーが眠っている間にも、開発者側から新しい兵器や乗り物、レベルを「プッシュ」することが可能ということを意味します。
ゲーム初心者の場合、例えばどうぶつの森で、自分が眠っている間に自分の村に友達が遊びに来て、メッセージやプレゼントを残していく、そんな、毎日電源を入れるのが楽しみになるようなことが実現できます。
ネットワーク接続の為のソフトはゲーム機に内蔵されていますので、ソフトの開発者は一行もネットワークの為のプログラムを書かなくても、開発者が望む情報や要素をユーザーが受け取ることができるように設定できます。 開発者はいつでもこれらの機能を追加できるのです。
我々が目指しているのは、「毎日が新しいシステム」です。

最後に、最も困難な問題は、今まで一度もゲームをプレイしたことの無い人々に、どの様にアピールするかです。そのために、幾つかの障壁を乗り越える必要があります。

新しいコントローラも、バーチャルコンソールも重要ですが、最も重要なのは、こういった人たちにゲームをやってみたいと思わせるソフトウェアだと思います。これらのゲームは、コアユーザーとノンゲーマーがすぐに楽しく、一緒にプレイすることを可能にします。
どのようなゲームがこのことを可能にするのでしょうか?

これらの例の中で、皆様が明日会場でプレイされることになるのはWiiスポーツです。
これは、テニスやゴルフ、野球などを1つのパッケージに集めたタイトルです。Wiiスポーツはハードの発売日に同時発売します。初めてプレイされる方には、Wiiリモコンを使用した操作感を直感的で魅力的なものと感じて頂けるでしょう。熱心なゲーマーの皆様も、今までに何回もプレイされて来られた様なものでも、驚くべき方法でプレイすることになります。


私達の目指すWiiによるゲーム人口拡大は、家庭内のゲーム関与者を増やすということです。
現在、家の中には、ゲームをプレイする人としない人が明確に分かれています。私達はこの状況をWiiで変え、これらの人々の間にある壁を壊して行きたいと思っています。

Wiiは、年齢、性別、ゲーム経験の有無を問わず、誰でもすぐに理解できます。
そして、Wiiは誰に対しても、新鮮で新しい体験を提供できます。


毎日何かが新しい。
誰に対しても毎日。

これが我々の答えです。



ありがとうございます。

==================================
英語の原文があった。こっちがスピーチの原文で、上は日本語訳だ。
声に出して読んでみた。 素晴らしい! 心に響いてくる文章だ!

だから、原文も残しておくことにした。

==================================

Thank you, and good morning.


When I became Nintendo president, we decided on a new goal for our company expanding the total number of people who play games.

In order to do this, we needed to target not only current gamers but two different types of consumers those who once played, but who had lost interest.
And even those who had never played before.

how would we do this?

The industry has always tried to improve in the same direction with games that are more gorgeous and more complex. But in order to approach lapsed or former gamers and non-gamers, these types of games can not serve our purpose.

The logical solution is to re-invent the relationship between player and game - the game controller interface. We believe this approach can appeal to a much broader audience but also excite core gamers.
This is important because core gamers always represent our most important audience.

Our first implementation was Nintendo DS.
Like many disruptive innovations, at first it confused some people. But these people began to understand when they started to 'pet' their puppies with a stylus and talk to them through the microphone.
Next, in japan we launched the first of the brain games. They have already been played by millions of people who never tried a video game before. Many people in our industry thought these consumers were impossible to reach, but now the trend is spreading to the western world.

So, how do we continue this strategy with Wii?

One hand control with the Wii remote is just like the touch screen of DS. It breaks down a barrier to non-gamers and lapsed gamers. For anyone, it is comfortable. In addition, most lapsed gamers have wonderful memories of games they used to play. The virtual console aspect of Wii will bring them together again. And the virtual console will also act as a 'living laboratory' for simple, intuitive games.

Using the creative approach with the Wii remote control, and the business model of the virtual console, maybe a game like 'Tetris' can be feasible once again.

In the past 20 years, as game systems improved in functionality there were also downsides. Among these, the startup time before game play begins is growing longer and longer. I have been planning, developing and playing games for a long time. And I still love all of this. But these days, I am busier than ever.
And if I have to wait 30 seconds or 40 seconds or more for a game to load. Often I get frustrated and sometimes I just can not wait. And now that I know I can instantly stop or start playing my DS by just closing or opening the top, I think I am spoiled.
Maybe this has happened to you, too.

If serious gamers find these delays frustrating, how can we ever expect the mass market to show more patience than we do?
Unless we change, we can never increase the game play population.

The Wii console will also help solve this problem.
It can power up virtual console games and applications like our Opera web browser saved to Flash ROM almost as fast as a telephone or television in just a few seconds.

And let me describe one more hardware feature.
No game console, no matter how powerful, serves any purpose when it is turned off. So we designed our machine to provide owners a variety of services even when it seems like it is turned off. Wii will become 'the system that never sleeps.'

Using a design called 'wii-connect-24', the console automatically enters standby mode without the fan running but still operating key functions and using power about the same as a miniature light bulb.

Importantly, this means the Wii console can be constantly connected to the internet. For you hard core gamers, this means developers can 'push' a new weapon or vehicle or level to you even while you sleep.
For beginning gamers, just starting with something like Animal Crossing, anytime the console is in standby, they may return to find that a friend has visited their village and left a message or a gift.
And other developers will configure their games so that players will receive the game elements or information that the designer wishes. And programmers won't need to write a single line of code. Networking software is included in the hardware and developers can decide to add these functions at any time.
What we are aiming for is a system that is new every day.

Then finally, the most difficult job is to reach people who have never played before. To approach them, we need to remove several walls.

New controllers and the virtual console are important, but most important is software that these people will really want to play. These games would allow a core gamer and a non-gamer to happily and immediately compete against each other.
What kind of game can do that?

Among the examples you'll play tomorrow is Wii-sports.
This is a combination which will include tennis, golf and baseball in one package. It will be available on launch day. Beginning players will find control with the Wii remote intuitive and appealing. Serious gamers will find it a surprising way to attempt something they've already done many times before.


Expanding the game audience with Wii means increasing the number of people in any household who are involved with games.
Today, there are people who play and people who do not. Wii will help destroy that wall between them.

Regardless of age, gender and game experience, anyone can instantly understand Wii. And Wii can provide anyone with fresh, new experiences.


Everyday, there is something new.
For everyone, everyday.

This is our answer.


Thank you.


======================

simple, intuitive は、大切なキーワードだ。
グーグルにも通じる。
web2.0のコンセプトでもある。

この暴落相場のなか、株価が下がらないのも、よく理解できる。

細部へのこだわり

本質的に新しい事など何もないのだ。ただ細かい所にかなり注意を払っただけのことである。また、明白なものであるがゆえに、魅力の無いものに思われるだろう。
バー・ローゼンバーグ


===========================
神(and天才)は細部に宿る、などというフレーズもあります。
徹底的にこだわるからこそ、素晴らしいも作品が完成するのだと思います。
私もレベルは劣っていても、徹底的にこだわる点では負けたくない。

そう、真実は素っ気無い程にシンプルな姿をしている。真実・真理に対しては、反発したくなるが、結局、真実のシンプルで完成された美しさに直面すれば抗し難くなる。

本質的価値

良き投資アナリスト(=投資家)であるためには、エコノミストとしても一流でなければならない。
ジョン・バー・ウィリアムス



1920年代の強気相場で、保有していた電力株がPER=100倍まで買われ、その後株価が$199.25から$2まで暴落(*)するのを経験して、証券会社の仕事を離れ大学で経済学を勉強することにした、、、、大恐慌の原因を究明し、株価の本質的価値を究明しようとしたのである

*エンロンを彷彿させますね。

=====================================
私は、"投資にプロとアマの差は無い、投資の基本動作 (4)"で記載したように、投資する領域・分野を2つに分けて考えています。
(1)各種サイクルに着目して銘柄に投資する。
(2)Special Situationに投資する手法です。いわゆる『新しく出現したテーマ投資』です。
の2つです。

(1)のサイクルの代表は景気サイクルです。ですから、経済を勉強し、エコノミストとしても一流になるように努力をすることは、投資判断を支える重要な基礎であると強く認識しています。

よく考えること、合理的期待論

適者生存の法則に打ち勝つ生存者は、将来を見通すに当たって、必ずしも正確ではないにしろ、深い思慮に基づいた見方をとり、本能的には行動しないものである。
ポール・サミュエルソン



======================
私の多くの投資の失敗は、飛び込んできたニュースに興奮して、または不安になって、勢いでやってしまった売買から生じている。
私は思い知ったのです。
私は短期トレードは実に下手なのだと、、、
私にできることは、爆発的な儲けは出来ないかもしれないけど、マイペースでゆっくりと、自分の納得した銘柄だけに投資をすることだと、、、、

参考記事:飛び乗ったら、飛び降りろ!

なお、上記の言葉は彼がその通り言ったのかは、私は確認していない。彼のことを書いた書籍の中に、彼がそう言っていたという記述があった。

サミュエルソンの平常時の合理的期待論に基づく人間行動と、異常時(パニック時、プレッシャーを受けている時)の非理性的な人間行動の摩訶不思議な格差は、この後『行動ファイナンス』として花開き、合理的期待論と並列するファイナンス理論の二本柱となったと、私は解釈している。
トレーダーは、後者に長けているべきである。


Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Stanford Report, June 14, 2005

'You've got to find what you love,' Jobs says

This is the text of the Commencement address by Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, delivered on June 12, 2005.

I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?

It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.



And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.

It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5 deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:

Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.
Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.



My second story is about love and loss.

I was lucky I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation the Macintosh a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.

I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.

I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I retuned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.

I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.



My third story is about death.

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.

This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.

Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Thank you all very much.


名言集

本で見つけたり、人に聞いたりして、心に染みたフレーズを集めてみました。
自分への戒めですね。

(1)よく考えること、合理的期待論
(2)本質的価値
(3)細部へのこだわり
(4)Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.
(5)毎日電源を入れるのが楽しみになるようなこと

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