Sour crude demand to remain capped despite Saudi OSP cuts: sources

Oil 07 Aug 2020 | 07:47 UTC Singapore

Sour crude demand to remain capped despite Saudi OSP cuts: sources
Highlights

September OSP cuts within market expectations

Sources say cuts are not enough to uplift demand

Spot market may weaken further amid weak refining margins

Singapore — The demand outlook for Middle East sour crude is likely to remain capped despite Saudi Aramco cutting the September official selling prices of its Asia-bound crude oil after three months of hikes, trade sources told S&P Global Platts on Aug. 7.

Saudi Aramco on Aug. 6 set the September Asia OSP for Arab Super Light and Arab Extra Light, at premiums of $2.05/b and 70 cents/b to the Dubai/Oman average, a drop of 60 cents/b and 50 cents/b, respectively, the company said in a notice.

The company dropped its Arab Light and Medium prices by 30 cents/b from August to a premium of 90 cents/b to the Dubai/Oman average. Arab Heavy OSP was set at 60 cents/b over Dubai/Oman average, a drop of 30 cents/b.

Market participants previously surveyed by Platts had expected both Aramco and ADNOC to lower their respective OSPs for crude loading in September by a range of between 30 cents/b to $1/b in view of the decline in structure seen in July.

While the OSP cuts made by Aramco were largely within expectation, sources said that the cuts were unlikely to uplift demand significantly.

"The cuts are not enough, even though I wasn't expecting declines of more than 50 cents/b to take place given that the [cash Dubai/futures] structure was not down a lot on average," a source from a northeast Asian refiner said.

The Dubai cash/futures (M1/M3) spread, a key indicator of spot market sentiment for sour crude in Asia, fell from an average of plus 84 cents/b for the whole of June to plus 71 cents/b for July.

However, within July itself, the Dubai M1/M3 spread dipped from a premium of $1.29/b at the start of the month on July 2 to minus 20 cents/b on July 28 -- the first time it had flipped into discounts in two months, Platts data showed.

WEAK REFINING MARGINS

Despite the lower OSPs, Asian refineries were unlikely to nominate full volumes in the current round of allocations, similar to the previous month, sources said.

"Prices are still way too high and spot cargoes will trade in deeper discounts... Buyers will not maximize their term [nominations] again," a crude oil source from a Chinese refiner said.

"Some US sellers who have pipeline commitments are trying to sell their barrels really cheap as well and the Chinese has already started buying a lot of US barrels, probably in anticipation of this OSP," the source added.

In addition, suppressed product margins could drive more Asian refineries to consider cutting run rates going ahead, in turn depressing demand further, sources said.

Product cracks for key transport fuels have weakened in recent weeks. The second-month 92 RON gasoline swap crack to Dubai swap had averaged $2.62/b in July, sliding from $3/b in June, Platts data showed.

Meanwhile, the second-month jet fuel swap crack to Dubai swap had averaged $2.47/b in July, down from $2.73/b in June.

Oil Traders Await Cheaper Saudi Crude With Demand Ebbing

Oil Traders Await Cheaper Saudi Crude With Demand Ebbing
Bloomberg July 30, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- For the first time since the oil price recovery started three months ago, Saudi Arabia and other top Middle East producers are coming under heavy pressure to cut the price of their barrels, a sign of how the rally has begun to stall.

The change doesn’t herald the return of ultra-low oil prices seen in March and April, but rather indicates that futures are struggling to advance much above $40 a barrel. New spikes in coronavirus cases are depressing fuel demand as local lockdowns, delayed returns to places of work, and canceled vacations all restrict the movement of people. As that slows the consumption recovery, crude production is rising, potentially tipping the supply-and-demand balance back toward surplus.

A big clue into just how far the global market’s dynamics have really shifted will become clear in the next several days as Middle East producers unveil their September pricing. Traders and refiners in Asia and Europe expect Saudi Arabia to cut its so-called official selling prices, or OSPs, for the first time since the OPEC+ alliance agreed to reduce production in April.

“The OSPs are always important, but especially during times of imbalances in the market,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at consultant Rystad Energy. “Saudi Arabia always has its finger on the pulse on customer demand.”

Where the kingdom leads, other Persian Gulf nations almost always follow. Every month Saudi Arabia issues official selling prices, effectively the premium or discount to a benchmark at which it sells crude. Normally, whatever Saudi Arabia does is essentially matched by others in the region. The OSPs then set the tone for the wider physical market, where real barrels change hands. The physical market in turn influences oil futures trading in exchanges in London, New York and elsewhere.

High Stockpiles

Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, is expected to cut the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light grade by 48 cents a barrel for September sales to Asia, the median estimate in a survey of eight traders and refiners across the region shows. It would be the first drop in four months after a series of hikes that came as OPEC+ cut output and consumption recovered as Asian economies emerged from lockdowns.

While Asia led the world in the demand rebound, crude and product stockpiles remain stubbornly high and the pandemic is still surging or staging a comeback in many countries. Floods and logistical bottlenecks in China in recent weeks have also contributed to a slump in imports, while Indian fuel sales are once again dropping.

September-loading cargoes of Arab Light for Asia could be priced at a 72-cents-a-barrel premium to the average of benchmark Oman and Dubai crude prices, according to the survey. That’s down from a $1.20 premium for August. Saudi Aramco typically releases its official prices in the first five days of the month.

European buyers also said Saudi Arabia will need to lower its OSPs to make the country’s crude competitive. Three said Arab Light would need to drop by about $2 a barrel for supplies into the Mediterranean. It was priced at a premium of 90 cents a barrel to Dated Brent for August, implying a discount for September.

Aramco didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

The price of spot crude cargoes from Russia to Angola to Brazil has slumped this month after a pull-back in purchases from top importers including China. Refining margins are still well below their average for the time of year in the Asian oil hub of Singapore too, weighing on the ability of processors in the region to turn a profit and pay more for crude.

Other Middle Eastern producers may be forced to cut OSPs as OPEC and its allies such as Russia start to ease output curbs from next month. Global benchmark Brent crude is poised for a fourth straight monthly gain, but August may prove to be more challenging as the increase in supply hits a global economy that’s still far from bringing the virus under control.

Qatar raises August Marine, Land crude official selling prices

July 13, 2020 / 7:26 PM

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Qatar Petroleum has set the August official selling prices (OSP) for its Qatar Marine crude at $1.35 a barrel above the average of Platts Oman and Dubai quotes, up 60 cents a barrel from the previous month, a pricing document showed on Monday.

The August OSP for Qatar Land crude was set at $1.30 a barrel above the Platts Oman/Dubai average, up 55 cents a barrel from the previous month.

出光興産 木藤俊一社長

「日本経済新聞」2020年7月11日(土) 7面

新型コロナウイルスの影響が長引き、石油の需要減は中長期的に避けられない。石油元売り大手出光興産の木藤俊一社長は日本経済新聞とのインタビューで製油所の統廃合が「当初計画より前倒しになる」と強調。再生可能エネルギーなど新規事業を育成し、業態変化を急ぐ考えを示した。

--石油需要をどうみますか。
外出を控える動きが広がり、4月のガソリン需要は前年同月比で2割、5月は3割落ちた。人々の生活様式は変わり、移動制限などで需要減は速まる。2019年11月に発表した中期経営計画では2030年に石油需要が3割下がると想定したが、前倒しになるだろう。

--業界への影響は。
まずは自社の製油所の統廃合を前倒しして検討し、経営の合理化を図る。新型コロナによる需要減がどの程度いつごろ回復するかの仮説を立て、どの製油所をどの順番で止めるべきか、様々な場合のシミュレーションを実施している。

--他社でも合理化の動きは進みますか。
製造拠点の集約が進み、本当に競争力のあるところだけが残ることになる。製油所の統廃合は個社だけの話ではなく、(企業の壁を越えて連携する)オールジャパンベースに引き直せばもっと効率化できる。

--新型コロナで経済が停滞し、世界の二酸化炭素(CO2)排出量が減っています。
脱炭素の流れが加速し、再生エネの需要は一層拡大する見通しだ。製油所の統廃合で収益を改善し、これを成長事業である再生エネなどに回し競争力を高める。太陽光ではパネル製造子会社のソーラーフロンティアのサプライチェーン(供給網)を生かす。全固体電池の開発にも取り組む。

--電気自動車(EV)分野にどう取り組みます。
国内に6400カ所持つ給油所を地域の分散電源の拠点にしていく。給油所の数が年々減るなか、地域に合った業態をきめ細かく提案できる元売りが生き残る。その手段の一つがEV事業だ。EVや再生エネを育てれば、ガソリンの需要減を早めかねない。でもそれは仕方ない。世の中の要請に応えていく。


米農務省 2020年6月

                  U.S. Corn Supply and Use  1/
================================================================================
                             2019/20 Est. 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item                                Jun          Jul           Jun           Jul
================================================================================
                                                 Million Acres

CORN
Area Planted                      89.7          89.7         97.0*         92.0*
Area Harvested                    81.3          81.3         89.6*         84.0*

                                                  Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre         167.4         167.4        178.5*        178.5*

                                                Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks                  2221          2221          2103          2248
Production                       13617         13617         15995         15000
Imports                             45            45            25            25
  Supply, Total                  15883         15883         18123         17273
Feed and Residual                 5700          5600          6050          5850
Food,Seed& Industrial 2/          6305          6260          6600          6625
Ethanol & by-products 3/          4900          4850          5200          5200
  Domestic, Total                12005         11860         12650         12475
Exports                           1775          1775          2150          2150
  Use, Total                     13780         13635         14800         14625
Ending Stocks                     2103          2248          3323          2648
Avg.FarmPrice ($/bu)  4/          3.60          3.60          3.20          3.35
================================================================================
                                WASDE - 602 - 13                       July 2020

2020年の作付面積

Corn Planted Acreage Up 3 Percent from 2019
Soybean Acreage Up 10 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Down 2 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Down 11 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2020 is estimated at 92.0 million
acres, up 3 percent or 2.31 million acres from last year. Compared with last
year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 28 of the
48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 84.0 million acres, is up
3 percent from last year.

Soybean planted area for 2020 is estimated at 83.8 million acres, up
10 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or
unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating States.

Corn Area Planted for All Purposes and Harvested for Grain - States and United States:
2019 and 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :   Area planted for all purposes   :     Area harvested for grain      
      State      :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :      2019       :      2020       :      2019       :     2020 1/     
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                              1,000 acres                              
                 :                                                                       
Alabama .........:        320               370               305               355      
Arizona .........:         90                95                37                35      
Arkansas ........:        770               640               725               625      
California ......:        460               420                60                50      
Colorado ........:      1,550             1,600             1,300             1,300      
Connecticut 2/ ..:         23                23              (NA)              (NA)      
Delaware ........:        185               175               180               170      
Florida .........:         90                80                54                45      
Georgia .........:        395               390               350               345      
Idaho ...........:        385               350               148               130      
                 :                                                                       
Illinois ........:     10,500            10,900            10,200            10,700      
Indiana .........:      5,000             5,400             4,820             5,250      
Iowa ............:     13,500            14,000            13,050            13,550      
Kansas ..........:      6,400             6,100             6,020             5,750      
Kentucky ........:      1,550             1,550             1,450             1,430      
Louisiana .......:        570               580               545               565      
Maine 2/ ........:         29                27              (NA)              (NA)      
Maryland ........:        510               500               460               455      
Massachusetts 2/ :         14                13              (NA)              (NA)      
Michigan ........:      2,000             2,300             1,610             1,940      
                 :                                                                       
Minnesota .......:      7,800             8,100             7,250             7,650      
Mississippi .....:        660               550               620               530      
Missouri ........:      3,200             3,500             2,990             3,350      
Montana .........:        115               130                60                75      
Nebraska ........:     10,100             9,800             9,810             9,450      
Nevada 2/ .......:         15                17              (NA)              (NA)      
New Hampshire 2/ :         12                12              (NA)              (NA)      
New Jersey ......:         77                90                68                84      
New Mexico ......:        145               130                46                30      
New York ........:      1,020             1,000               545               495      
                 :                                                                       
North Carolina ..:        990             1,020               930               960      
North Dakota ....:      3,500             2,400             3,130             2,200      
Ohio ............:      2,800             3,600             2,570             3,400      
Oklahoma ........:        370               420               330               370      
Oregon ..........:         80                85                48                45      
Pennsylvania ....:      1,450             1,470             1,060             1,000      
Rhode Island 2/ .:          2                 2              (NA)              (NA)      
South Carolina ..:        380               390               350               360      
South Dakota ....:      4,350             5,400             3,870             4,920      
Tennessee .......:        970               950               910               900      
                 :                                                                       
Texas ...........:      2,500             2,400             2,150             2,000      
Utah ............:         85                95                26                30      
Vermont 2/ ......:         81                81              (NA)              (NA)      
Virginia ........:        540               520               380               375      
Washington ......:        170               200                90               115      
West Virginia ...:         52                46                38                32      
Wisconsin .......:      3,800             4,000             2,670             2,900      
Wyoming .........:         95                85                67                57      
                 :                                                                       
United States ...:     89,700            92,006            81,322            84,023      
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                      
1/   Forecasted.                                                                         
2/   Area harvested for grain not estimated.     

Soybean Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2019 and 2020
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :         Area planted          :        Area harvested         
       State      :---------------------------------------------------------------
                  :     2019      :     2020      :     2019      :    2020 1/    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                          1,000 acres                          
                  :                                                               
Alabama ..........:       265             310             260             305     
Arkansas .........:     2,650           2,950           2,610           2,910     
Delaware .........:       155             150             153             148     
Georgia ..........:       100              90              93              84     
Illinois .........:     9,950          10,400           9,860          10,350     
Indiana ..........:     5,400           5,700           5,360           5,680     
Iowa .............:     9,200           9,400           9,120           9,320     
Kansas ...........:     4,550           5,300           4,490           5,250     
Kentucky .........:     1,700           1,850           1,690           1,840     
Louisiana ........:       890           1,100             860           1,070     
                  :                                                               
Maryland .........:       480             420             475             415     
Michigan .........:     1,760           2,300           1,720           2,290     
Minnesota ........:     6,850           7,400           6,770           7,330     
Mississippi ......:     1,660           2,000           1,630           1,970     
Missouri .........:     5,100           5,600           5,010           5,550     
Nebraska .........:     4,900           5,000           4,840           4,950     
New Jersey .......:        95              80              92              78     
New York .........:       235             290             225             280     
North Carolina ...:     1,540           1,600           1,520           1,570     
North Dakota .....:     5,600           6,000           5,400           5,950     
                  :                                                               
Ohio .............:     4,300           4,800           4,270           4,780     
Oklahoma .........:       465             550             440             520     
Pennsylvania .....:       620             610             610             605     
South Carolina ...:       335             370             320             350     
South Dakota .....:     3,500           5,200           3,440           5,150     
Tennessee ........:     1,400           1,600           1,370           1,570     
Texas ............:        80             135              73             115     
Virginia .........:       570             570             560             560     
Wisconsin ........:     1,750           2,050           1,690           2,030     
                  :                                                               
United States ....:    76,100          83,825          74,951          83,020     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Forecasted.                  

全米在庫 2020年6月30日公表

Grain Stocks
Released June 30, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2020 totaled 5.22 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from June 1, 2019. Of the total stocks, 3.03 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.20 billion bushels, are down 2 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2020 indicated disappearance is 2.73 billion bushels, compared with 3.41 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2020 totaled 1.39 billion bushels, down 22 percent from June 1, 2019. On-farm stocks totaled 633 million bushels, down 13 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 753 million bushels, are down 28 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2020 quarter totaled 869 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Grain Stocks by Position and Month in Domestic Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2019                 :                 2020
                :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :     On     :    Off     : Total all
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                                1,000 bushels
Corn            :
March 1 ........: 5,131,000    3,482,206     8,613,206   4,454,000    3,497,172    7,951,172
June 1 .........: 2,949,600    2,252,636     5,202,236   3,025,000    2,198,664    5,223,664
September 1 ....:   814,100    1,406,649     2,220,749
December 1 .....: 7,103,000    4,224,338    11,327,338
                :
All wheat       :
March 1 ........:   367,870    1,225,201     1,593,071     338,690    1,076,724    1,415,414
June 1 .........:   206,545      873,216     1,079,761     231,995      811,847    1,043,842
September 1 ....:   734,500    1,611,025     2,345,525
December 1 .....:   519,470    1,321,305     1,840,775
                :
Soybeans        :
March 1 ........: 1,270,000    1,457,069     2,727,069   1,011,500    1,243,382    2,254,882
June 1 .........:   730,000    1,053,080     1,783,080     633,000      752,989    1,385,989
September 1 ....:   265,000      644,052       909,052
December 1 .....: 1,519,500    1,732,988     3,252,488
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors.
2/ Included in All wheat.  

メトリック・トン換算

Grain Stocks by Position and Month in Metric Units - United States: 2019 and 2020
[Data may not add to totals due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has
not yet begun.]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2019                 :                 2020
                :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :     On     :    Off     : Total all
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                                 metric tons
Corn            :
March 1 ........:130,333,400   88,452,110  218,785,510  113,136,810   88,832,260  201,969,070
June 1 .........: 74,923,290   57,219,590  132,142,880   76,838,540   55,848,640  132,687,180
September 1 ....: 20,679,090   35,730,530   56,409,620
December 1 .....:180,424,510  107,303,130  287,727,640
                :
All wheat       :
March 1 ........: 10,011,780   33,344,510   43,356,290    9,217,630   29,303,630   38,521,260
June 1 .........:  5,621,230   23,765,040   29,386,280    6,313,870   22,094,850   28,408,720
September 1 ....: 19,989,810   43,844,920   63,834,730
December 1 .....: 14,137,660   35,960,030   50,097,690
                :
Soybeans        :
March 1 ........: 34,563,740   39,654,920   74,218,660   27,528,520   33,839,310   61,367,830
June 1 .........: 19,867,340   28,660,140   48,527,490   17,227,440   20,493,000   37,720,440
September 1 ....:  7,212,120   17,528,220   24,740,340
December 1 .....: 41,354,010   47,164,200   88,518,220
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors.
2/ Included in All wheat.

米国トウモロコシの作付面積と生産高 2017-2019

Crop Production
Released June 11, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Corn Area Planted for All Purposes and Harvested for Grain, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017 - 2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   Area planted for all purposes   :     Area harvested for grain
        State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                              1,000 acres
                    :
Alabama ............:     250         255         320         235         245         305
Arizona ............:      65          80          90          32          20          37
Arkansas ...........:     620         660         770         595         645         725
California .........:     430         430         460          80          65          60
Colorado ...........:   1,460       1,460       1,550       1,300       1,190       1,300
Connecticut 1/ .....:      24          23          23        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Delaware ...........:     180         170         185         171         166         180
Florida ............:      75          95          90          37          62          54
Georgia ............:     290         325         395         245         285         350
Idaho ..............:     340         350         385         115         125         148
                    :                                       
Illinois ...........:  11,200      11,000      10,500      10,950      10,800      10,200
Indiana ............:   5,350       5,300       5,000       5,200       5,120       4,820
Iowa ...............:  13,300      13,200      13,500      12,900      12,750      13,050
Kansas .............:   5,500       5,450       6,400       5,200       4,980       6,020
Kentucky ...........:   1,320       1,330       1,550       1,220       1,220       1,450
Louisiana ..........:     500         460         570         490         450         545
Maine 1/ ...........:      31          30          29        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Maryland ...........:     480         440         510         420         380         460
Massachusetts 1/ ...:      15          14          14        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Michigan ...........:   2,250       2,250       2,000       1,890       1,890       1,610
                    :       
Minnesota ..........:   8,050       7,900       7,800       7,630       7,460       7,250
Mississippi ........:     520         480         660         500         460         620
Missouri ...........:   3,400       3,500       3,200       3,250       3,330       2,990
Montana ............:     115         115         115          65          68          60
Nebraska ...........:   9,550       9,600      10,100       9,300       9,300       9,810
Nevada 1/ ..........:      12          13          15        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
New Hampshire 1/ ...:      14          13          12        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
New Jersey .........:      77          70          77          70          60          68
New Mexico .........:     125         135         145          43          35          46
New York ...........:   1,000       1,070       1,020         485         615         545
                    :      
North Carolina .....:     890         910         990         840         830         930
North Dakota .......:   3,420       3,150       3,500       3,230       2,930       3,130
Ohio ...............:   3,400       3,500       2,800       3,150       3,300       2,570
Oklahoma ...........:     350         310         370         305         270         330
Oregon .............:      85          75          80          44          40          48
Pennsylvania .......:   1,350       1,300       1,450         920         890       1,060
Rhode Island 1/ ....:       2           2           2        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
South Carolina .....:     350         340         380         325         310         350
South Dakota .......:   5,700       5,300       4,350       5,080       4,860       3,870
Tennessee ..........:     750         720         970         710         670         910
                    :         
Texas ..............:   2,450       2,200       2,500       2,240       1,750       2,150
Utah ...............:      80          70          85          20          22          26
Vermont 1/ .........:      82          85          81        (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Virginia ...........:     500         485         540         340         325         380
Washington .........:     170         165         170          80          85          90
West Virginia ......:      50          46          52          33          33          38
Wisconsin ..........:   3,900       3,900       3,800       2,930       3,170       2,670
Wyoming ............:      95          95          95          63          70          67
                    :  
United States ......:  90,167      88,871      89,700      82,733      81,276      81,322
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.       

Corn Area Planted for All Purposes and Harvested for Grain, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017 - 2019
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :          Yield per acre           :            Production
      State      :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :   2017    :   2018    :   2019    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :  ----------- bushels ----------    ---------- 1,000 bushels ---------
                 :     
Alabama .........:   167.0       156.0       147.0        39,245      38,220      44,835
Arizona .........:   195.0       220.0       231.0         6,240       4,400       8,547
Arkansas ........:   183.0       181.0       175.0       108,885     116,745     126,875
California ......:   167.0       173.0       168.0        13,360      11,245      10,080
Colorado ........:   143.0       130.0       123.0       185,900     154,700     159,900
Connecticut 1/ ..:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Delaware ........:   189.0       145.0       161.0        32,319      24,070      28,980
Florida .........:   161.0       157.0       161.0         5,957       9,734       8,694
Georgia .........:   176.0       176.0       160.0        43,120      50,160      56,000
Idaho ...........:   203.0       213.0       205.0        23,345      26,625      30,340
                 :         
Illinois ........:   201.0       210.0       181.0     2,200,950   2,268,000   1,846,200
Indiana .........:   180.0       189.0       169.0       936,000     967,680     814,580
Iowa ............:   202.0       196.0       198.0     2,605,800   2,499,000   2,583,900
Kansas ..........:   132.0       129.0       133.0       686,400     642,420     800,660
Kentucky ........:   178.0       175.0       169.0       217,160     213,500     245,050
Louisiana .......:   184.0       173.0       165.0        90,160      77,850      89,925
Maine 1/ ........:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Maryland ........:   172.0       146.0       161.0        72,240      55,480      74,060
Massachusetts 1/ :    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Michigan ........:   159.0       153.0       147.0       300,510     289,170     236,670
                 :    
Minnesota .......:   194.0       182.0       173.0     1,480,220   1,357,720   1,254,250
Mississippi .....:   189.0       185.0       174.0        94,500      85,100     107,880
Missouri ........:   170.0       140.0       155.0       552,500     466,200     463,450
Montana .........:    70.0        85.0        95.0         4,550       5,780       5,700
Nebraska ........:   181.0       192.0       182.0     1,683,300   1,785,600   1,785,420
Nevada 1/ .......:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
New Hampshire 1/ :    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
New Jersey ......:   167.0       141.0       155.0        11,690       8,460      10,540
New Mexico ......:   134.0       187.0       135.0         5,762       6,545       6,210
New York ........:   161.0       159.0       158.0        78,085      97,785      86,110
                 :            
North Carolina ..:   142.0       113.0       111.0       119,280      93,790     103,230
North Dakota ....:   139.0       153.0       131.0       448,970     448,290     410,030
Ohio ............:   177.0       187.0       164.0       557,550     617,100     421,480
Oklahoma ........:   126.0       134.0       137.0        38,430      36,180      45,210
Oregon ..........:   212.0       195.0       237.0         9,328       7,800      11,376
Pennsylvania ....:   161.0       140.0       153.0       148,120     124,600     162,180
Rhode Island 1/ .:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
South Carolina ..:   136.0       127.0       106.0        44,200      39,370      37,100
South Dakota ....:   145.0       160.0       144.0       736,600     777,600     557,280
Tennessee .......:   171.0       168.0       177.0       121,410     112,560     161,070
                 :      
Texas ...........:   140.0       108.0       133.0       313,600     189,000     285,950
Utah ............:   176.0       182.0       143.0         3,520       4,004       3,718
Vermont 1/ ......:    (NA)        (NA)        (NA)          (NA)        (NA)        (NA)
Virginia ........:   140.0       146.0       144.0        47,600      47,450      54,720
Washington ......:   225.0       220.0       237.0        18,000      18,700      21,330
West Virginia ...:   152.0       152.0       165.0         5,016       5,016       6,270
Wisconsin .......:   174.0       172.0       166.0       509,820     545,240     443,220
Wyoming .........:   155.0       164.0       123.0         9,765      11,480       8,241
                 :       
United States ...:   176.6       176.4       167.4    14,609,407  14,340,369  13,617,261
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.       
1/   Area harvested for grain not estimated.

米国大豆の作付面積と生産高 2017-2019

Crop Production
Released June 11, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Soybeans for Beans Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017-2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :           Area planted            :          Area harvested
        State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                              1,000 acres
                    :       
Alabama ............:     350         345         265         345         335         260
Arkansas ...........:   3,530       3,270       2,650       3,500       3,210       2,610
Delaware ...........:     160         170         155         158         168         153
Florida 1/ .........:      15          18        (NA)          14          12        (NA)
Georgia ............:     155         145         100         150         130          93
Illinois ...........:  10,600      10,800       9,950      10,550      10,500       9,860
Indiana ............:   5,950       6,000       5,400       5,940       5,960       5,360
Iowa ...............:  10,000       9,950       9,200       9,940       9,830       9,120
Kansas .............:   5,150       4,750       4,550       5,110       4,690       4,490
Kentucky ...........:   1,950       1,950       1,700       1,940       1,930       1,690
                    :    
Louisiana ..........:   1,270       1,340         890       1,250       1,190         860
Maryland ...........:     500         530         480         495         515         475
Michigan ...........:   2,280       2,330       1,760       2,270       2,310       1,720
Minnesota ..........:   8,150       7,750       6,850       8,090       7,650       6,770
Mississippi ........:   2,190       2,230       1,660       2,170       2,190       1,630
Missouri ...........:   5,950       5,850       5,100       5,910       5,780       5,010
Nebraska ...........:   5,700       5,650       4,900       5,670       5,590       4,840
New Jersey .........:     100         110          95          99         107          92
New York ...........:     270         335         235         265         325         225
North Carolina .....:   1,700       1,650       1,540       1,690       1,570       1,520
                    :     
North Dakota .......:   7,100       6,900       5,600       7,050       6,840       5,400
Ohio ...............:   5,100       5,050       4,300       5,090       5,020       4,270
Oklahoma ...........:     655         640         465         640         600         440
Pennsylvania .......:     610         640         620         605         630         610
South Carolina .....:     400         390         335         390         330         320
South Dakota .......:   5,650       5,650       3,500       5,610       5,580       3,440
Tennessee ..........:   1,690       1,700       1,400       1,660       1,670       1,370
Texas ..............:     210         175          80         185         135          73
Virginia ...........:     600         600         570         590         590         560
West Virginia 1/ ...:      27          29        (NA)          26          27        (NA)
Wisconsin ..........:   2,150       2,220       1,750       2,140       2,180       1,690
                    :    
United States ......:  90,162      89,167      76,100      89,542      87,594      74,951
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.

Soybeans for Beans Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017-2019 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :          Yield per acre           :            Production
        State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019    :   2017    :   2018    :   2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :   ---------- bushels ----------     --------- 1,000 bushels ---------
                    :       
Alabama ............:   46.0        40.0         36.0        15,870      13,400       9,360
Arkansas ...........:   51.0        50.5         49.0       178,500     162,105     127,890
Delaware ...........:   51.0        41.5         47.0         8,058       6,972       7,191
Florida 1/ .........:   34.0        37.0         (NA)           476         444        (NA)
Georgia ............:   42.0        39.5         29.0         6,300       5,135       2,697
Illinois ...........:   58.0        63.5         54.0       611,900     666,750     532,440
Indiana ............:   54.0        57.5         51.0       320,760     342,700     273,360
Iowa ...............:   57.0        56.0         55.0       566,580     550,480     501,600
Kansas .............:   37.5        43.0         41.5       191,625     201,670     186,335
Kentucky ...........:   53.0        51.0         46.0       102,820      98,430      77,740
                    :       
Louisiana ..........:   54.0        51.5         48.0        67,500      61,285      41,280
Maryland ...........:   51.0        47.5         44.0        25,245      24,463      20,900
Michigan ...........:   42.5        47.5         40.5        96,475     109,725      69,660
Minnesota ..........:   47.5        49.0         44.0       384,275     374,850     297,880
Mississippi ........:   53.0        54.0         50.0       115,010     118,260      81,500
Missouri ...........:   49.5        44.5         46.0       292,545     257,210     230,460
Nebraska ...........:   57.5        58.0         58.5       326,025     324,220     283,140
New Jersey .........:   45.0        39.5         37.0         4,455       4,227       3,404
New York ...........:   45.0        52.0         48.0        11,925      16,900      10,800
North Carolina .....:   40.0        33.0         35.0        67,600      51,810      53,200
                    :       
North Dakota .......:   34.5        35.0         31.5       243,225     239,400     170,100
Ohio ...............:   49.5        56.0         49.0       251,955     281,120     209,230
Oklahoma ...........:   29.0        28.0         29.0        18,560      16,800      12,760
Pennsylvania .......:   48.0        44.5         49.0        29,040      28,035      29,890
South Carolina .....:   38.0        29.0         26.0        14,820       9,570       8,320
South Dakota .......:   43.0        45.0         42.5       241,230     251,100     146,200
Tennessee ..........:   50.0        45.5         47.0        83,000      75,985      64,390
Texas ..............:   37.0        31.5         28.0         6,845       4,253       2,044
Virginia ...........:   44.0        42.0         34.0        25,960      24,780      19,040
West Virginia 1/ ...:   54.0        53.0         (NA)         1,404       1,431        (NA)
Wisconsin ..........:   47.5        48.0         47.0       101,650     104,640      79,430
                    :        
United States ......:   49.3        50.6         47.4     4,411,633   4,428,150   3,552,241
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.       
1/   Estimates discontinued in 2019.

シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ 2020年7月限

シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ 2020年7月限の値段と建玉

(1)米中貿易協議で関税合戦をしているあいだに世界の農産物の需給構造が多大な変化をたどり、それはこのあとも続く可能性があり、以前の状態には戻らない。あたらしい供給元が台頭し、あたらしい取引相手に取って代わられる。
(2)6月末は期近7月限の受渡通知初日、それと同時に金融市場の第2四半期末にあたる。当面の焦点はそのあたりと考えます。
(3)本年(2020)の12月限、3月限の建玉は少ない。

※2020年7月2日にデータ追加

2020年7月限の値段と建玉
日付 7月限値段 出来高 5限建玉 7限建玉 9限建玉 12限建玉 3限建玉 総取組高

7/01 3.4825 568,037
6/30 3.3850 853,692       7,393 656,875 574,774 102,245 155万9,526(枚)
6/29 3.2625 588,572      14,305 647,563 576,926 100,427 154万9,165

6/26 3.1700 627,990      76,972 640,723 580,632  97,499 160万0,310 
6/25 3.1725 645,142      160,700 620,685 568,334  91,800 164万2,629
6/24 3.2425 454,437      188,783 592,858 550,333  87,425 161万5,596
6/23 3.2500 495,862      228,554 572,793 531,911  81,833 160万9,523
6/22 3.2825 286,874      268,905 553,869 513,636  79,778 160万9,305

6/19 3.3250 403,527      280,379 539,376 504,211  78,482 159万4,125
6/18 3.3100 419,674      294,038 526,103 485,937  77,792 157万5,631
6/17 3.3025 444,750      313,479 517,732 476,854  77,476 157万6,729
6/16 3.2900 451,264      339,412 511,746 467,466  75,655 158万3,800
6/15 3.2925 344,060      342,544 499,261 456,297  74,919 156万1,727

6/12 3.3000 469,165      358,136 488,403 436,600  74,025 154万4,793
6/11 3.2975 497,323      386,413 479,882 430,014  72,076 155万5,707
6/10 3.2625 433,804      430,935 441,259 421,741  71,713 155万1,071
6/09 3.2750 456,785      468,324 400,092 410,801  69,835 153万4,533
6/08 3.3375 362,417      493,320 368,182 407,408  69,509 152万2,447

6/05 3.3125 386,707      546,449 345,838 403,165  68,462 154万2,083
6/04 3.2900 255,096      576,294 317,604 394,636  66,307 153万1,318
6/03 3.2400 216,713      590,075 312,018 387,171  64,693 152万8,199
6/02 3.2425 219,114      588,861 307,455 384,829  62,979 151万8,926
6/01 3.2325 237,054      590,244 298,210 379,601  61,095 150万3,318

5/29 3.2575 293.586      591,317 289,496 374,444  60,061 148万8,890
5/28 3.2750 396,368      590,095 291,499 371,952  59,203 147万5,222
5/27 3.2050 109,562      601,194 272,898 370,177  57,773 147万2,908
5/26 3.1900 215,333      600,423 270,678 367,067  57,160 146万5,739
5/25 Memorial Day

5/22 3.1800 147,203      606,878 267,205 363,433  57,122 146万3,711
5/21 3.1775 172,892      608,385 263,182 359,298  56,846 145万5,128
5/20 3.1950 236,129      604,915 258,939 358,266  56,402 144万5,086
5/19 3.2125 213,586      601,312 258,587 354,881  55,852 143万6,588
5/18 3.2075 157,345      600,778 257,231 358,623  55,197 142万7,238

5/15 3.1925 177,321      603,507 256,801 346,236  54,714 142万3,297
5/14 3.1750 193,144      610,180 253,634 339,424  55,375 141万9,584
5/13 3.1825 201,698      609,926 252,702 338,865  54,862 141万7,094
5/12 3.2225 321,802   150 612,235 253,030 341,474  55,235 142万1,348
5/11 3.1850 168,758   402 601,281 248,714 335,073  54,503 139万6,718

5/08 3.1925 186,726   710 602,887 251,219 332,538  54,559 139万5,498
5/07 3.1800 270,862  1,697 606,915 253,184 328,793  53,313 139万4,474
5/06 3.1425 195,481  2,209 614,588 248,443 332,624  52,790 139万4,789
5/05 3.1700 185,057  2,477 619,868 247,465 335,033  51,079 139万7,612
5/04 3.1550 205,021  2,839 623,707 244,715 333,342  51,567 139万6,685

5/01 3.1850 178,785  3,616 627,946 244,165 331,248  50,708 139万1,282
4/30 3.2000 283,874  5,280 636,917 244,119 330,124  50,265 139万8,355
4/29 3.1450 435,762  9,805 644,172 244,880 328,568  49,871 140万7,173
4/28 3.1200 420,783  41,026 634,969 242,051 325,892  50,360 142万3,461
4/27 3.1325 351,155  90,488 628,223 237,874 320,668  49,267 145万4,196

4/24 3.2300 311,785 112,874 614,622 236,432 316,611  48,988 145万6,168
4/23 3.2600 446,913 151,589 600,766 235,742 313,004  48,457 147万1,144
4/22 3.2475 417,588 172,075 600,171 240,462 240,462  47,735 148万5,273
4/21 3.1725 534,198 188,795 582,173 238,615 299,714  46,937 147万0,777
4/20 3.2225 375,157 221,804 565,156 235,485 295,038  44,957 147万4,765

4/17 3.2925 248,771 236,285 546,048 231,192 294,578  42,933 146万1,476
4/16 3.2625 318,493 244,235 543,150 226,172 291,525  43,067 145万7,208
4/15 3.2675 395,547 262,717 531,638 222,001 286,076  42,427 145万2,038
4/14 3.3225 411,311 275,538 520,771 217,101 282,257  39,852 143万9,982
4/13 3.3625 278,027 312,523 499,271 211,010 277,781  37,941 144万1,515

4/10 Good Friday
4/09 3.3675 348,607 331,556 473,552 206,460 276,353  37,446 142万5,276
4/08 3.3550 314,421 371,812 448,553 202,396 273,696  37,214 143万1,184
4/07 3.3725 305,783 401,740 429,183 196,886 270,870  36,992 143万0,281
4/06 3.3350 229,331 423,498 416,784 193,407 266,924  36,613 142万9,676

4/03 3.3675 342,357 430,332 409,628 191,478 265,634      142万4,722
4/02 3.3850 329,321 435,662 405,587 188,236 265,133      141万9,685
4/01 3.3875 366,162 444,324 399,423 183,796 262,538      141万0,902
3/31 3.4600 458,259 447,139 389,841 176,456 258,538      138万9,346
3/30 3.4750 204,123 453,633 381,125 175,463 254,789      137万8,265

3/27 3.5175 219,776 456,635 376,249 172,582 253,002      136万9,855
3/26 3.5425 232,290 468,297 370,783 174,619 251,751      137万4,327
3/25 3.5350 230,328 474,162 365,257 174,396 253,449      137万4,735
3/24 3.5200 245,608 482,009 366,222 176,372 252,671      138万2,708
3/23 3.4950 216,964 490,678 372,976 177,085 252,152      139万8,077

3/20 3.4950 397,185 494,423 376,113 175,486 252,786      140万3,100
3/19 3.5100 473,990 498,392 376,963 176,339 254,058      140万9,138
3/18 3.4175 577,632 520,668 382,124 178,107 259,556      143万9,449
3/17 3.5000 471,437 533,638 368,894 181,848 261,013      144万0,256
3/16 3.5850 392,368 537,944 362,374 180,068 262,730      143万5,203

3/13 3.6850 374,530 552,326 360,777 179,078 269,175      145万0,294
3/12 3.6875 375,435 558,970 359,418 180,525 270,078      145万6,349
3/11 3.7650 216,011 567,722 363,155 180,317 271,055      146万7,673
3/10 3.7950 256,278 574,128 363,820 178,331 271,062      147万0,043
3/09 3.7500 437,487 578,558 369,760 178,352 271,615      148万0,776

国民合意政府(GNA)、リビア西部からハフタル軍を駆逐

リビア東部を拠点とするハフタルは2019年4月、西部のトリポリへ侵攻した。リビア内戦に関係諸外国の介入も拡大した。そして、本年(2020)6月第1週、その帰趨が明確になった。
※以下、The Libya Observer の記事から

Libyan Army takes full control of Bani Walid and Urban without a battle
June 06, 2020 - 11:01
The Libyan Army announced on Friday, the total liberation of the town of Urban, some 80 km south of Tripoli, shortly after the liberation of the city of Tarhuna, which was a stronghold for Haftar’s militias in the west.

Having captured Tarhuna and Urban, the Volcano of Rage Operation also declared total control of the city of Bani Walid, along with its Airport, previously used by Haftar’s militias for the transportation of weapons and mercenaries.

The control of Bani Walid and Urban was carried out without any resistance, after Haftar militias fled, following the liberation of Tarhuna, putting up no resistance as they ran.

Hamada oil valve reopened
June 06, 2020 - 10:57
The Commander of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), under the Government of National Accord (GNA), Ali Al-Deeb, stated that Hamada oil valve, which connects the Sharara oilfield to Al-Zawiya refinery, has been reopened.

Al-Deeb expected resumption of crude oil loadings to Al-Zawiya refinery will begin today, Saturday.

He added that it was Sharara and Al-Feel oilfields would return to normal production very soon.

Hamada oil valve was closed by an armed group from Zintan loyal to warlord Haftar.

Libyan army retakes Tarhuna in one-hour operation
June 05, 2020 - 11:44
Tahuna city, the last stronghold of warlord Khalifa Haftar in western Libya, has been liberated, spokesperson Mohammed Gununu declares.

Army forces stormed the city from four directions early on Friday and clashed with the infamous militia of Kaniyat. After around one hour of fire exchange, the militia was defeated and the militiamen escaped outside of the city to Bani Walid.

Shortly after Tarhuna liberation, the Libyan army entered Al ‘Urban town, some 80 km south of Tripoli.

The Western Operations Room warned the fighters about taking revenge, theft or sabotage, adding in a statement that the violators will be subjected to the most severe penalties.

The Presidential Council named a steering council and security director for Tarhuna on Thursday.

Libya's Army under GNA liberates entire Tripoli region, Haftar's forces flee
June 04, 2020 - 12:23
The Libyan Army under the command of the Government of National Accord (GNA) has declared the entire Tripoli region as liberated, saying it has retaken control of all the administrative borders of Greater Tripoli as Khalifa Haftar's forces flee toward Tarhouna and Bani Walid.

The spokesman for the Libyan Army Mohammed Gununu confirmed Thursday the control of the capital and all of its southern districts, including Wadi Rabea, Ain Zara and Qasir Benghashir.

The liberation of south Tripoli districts, after 14 months of fighting, saw a full circle once GNA forces entered Thursday morning Wadi Rabea, Souq Al-Ahad and Qasir Benghashir, thus eliminating the presence of Haftar's forces from the entire region of Greater Tripoli.

The GNA Defense Minister, Salah Al-Namroush, told reporters that the Libyan Army had defeated Haftar's forces who fled to Bani Walid town in southeast Tripoli, saying: "the terrorist militias had been defeated".

According to the Volcano of Rage Operation under the command of the GNA, Libyan Army forces will continue to advance on the fleeing Haftar's forces to Sabea district and Fum Molgha checkpoint inside the administrative borders of Tarhouna, Haftar's latest safe haven in western Libya.

The operation said that GNA's anti-terrorism force had seized, in Wadi Rabea, a depot of ammunition, five military vehicles, three armored vehicles, seven tanks and three soldiers vehicles as well as three artillery launchers.

This liberation comes one day after the seizure of Tripoli International Airport by the GNA forces, who pushed - since Wednesday morning - Haftar's forces along with African mercenaries seen fleeing with them in social media posts, further and further away from all administrative borders of Greater Tripoli region.

Libyan Army under GNA's command seizes control of Tripoli International Airport
June 03, 2020 - 21:11
The Libyan Army under the command of the Government of National Accord (GNA) has seized full control of Tripoli International Airport after heavy clashes since Wednesday morning, spokesman Mohammed Gununu announced.

Gununu said that the Libyan Army forces were chasing away fleeing Haftar's forces who were barricaded inside Tripoli International Airport as they advance on Qasir Benghashir onwards since Haftar's forces left their positions in Qasir Benghashir, Sabea and Souq Al-Khamis, fleeing to Tarhouna and Bani Walid.

Earlier Wednesday, GNA forces also seized control of Qasir Benghashir roundabout, Al-Ahyaa Al-Bariya and Kazirma, let alone the control of GNA forces over Khallatat, Khalla, and Yarmouk Camp, which all were positions for Haftar's forces, according to Volcano of Rage Operation sources, who added that they had advanced on Souq Al-Ahad Brigade to eliminate Haftar's forces from southern Tripoli.

The districts in south Tripoli have been falling in the hands of GNA forces piecemeal over the last two weeks after months of fighting and hundreds of casualties due to a war started by Haftar and his foreign mercenaries - Russian Wagner Group fighters who pulled out lately, Janjaweed and others - to seize control of Tripoli.

Abu Dhabi, Qatar offer most competitively priced crude in Middle East

22 May 2020 | 08:26 UTC Singapore  S&P Global Platts

Highlights
Producers engaged in competitive pricing since March
Divergence in final price stems from benchmarks used by producers

Singapore — Despite sharp cuts by Saudi Arabia in its official selling prices for crude oil recently, it's the relatively smaller producers like Abu Dhabi and Qatar that are emerging as attractive suppliers from the Middle East, an analysis by S&P Global Platts showed this week.

Middle East crude producers have engaged in competitive pricing since March of this year, when Saudi Aramco slashed its OSP differentials by around $6/b to Asian customers. Other producers followed suit with similar cuts to their respective grades.

While most Middle East producers tend to track monthly OSP changes by Saudi Aramco, the divergence in the final sale price of crude they are offering stems from the various benchmarks that different producers use.

Most Middle East producers offer their crude to Asian buyers at a premium or discount to either Platts Dubai, Platts Dubai/Oman average, Platts Dubai/DME Oman average or DME Oman average.

The sharp divergence in the value between Platts Oman and DME Oman is key to deriving the final price that endusers pay to the producer. The DME contract's premium stands out in the wider Asian market due to a combination of specific fundamentals, namely deep supply-side production cuts from Oman and rising import demand from China.

"Demand in China seems fairly robust now. With new quotas and domestic pricing, they are rushing to buy what they are used to, for example, Oman and ESPO etc," a Singapore-based crude trader said.

With fresh OPEC+ production cut quotas coming into effect this month, Oman said it would cut oil production from its six largest producing blocks by 23% from its October 2018 baseline levels of 883,000 b/d to adhere with the OPEC+ production cuts coming into effect for May and June.

The cheapest barrel


Back in March, Saudi Aramco slashed the price of its April Arab Light crude by $6/b, far outstripping a cut of $3.98/b for Abu Dhabi's Upper Zakum crude OSP differential and $5/b for Qatar's Marine crude for the same month.

On the surface, all three grades are of similar quality, and all load from neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. With this in mind, the OSP differentials for Saudi Arab Light seems cheaper by a wide margin.

For the same pricing period, the DME Oman futures contract averaged $3.17/b higher than Platts Oman over April, exceeding its previous record high seen in March.

In the same month, the DME Oman's premium over Platts Cash Dubai averaged $3.27/b, then the widest spread between the two Middle East markers since averaging $1.81/b in July 2008, Platts data showed.

"The DME Oman value was minus $2.70/b one day when window [Dubai] value for medium sour at the time was minus $9.70/b," said the trader, pointing to the wide variation seen of late between the two references for Middle East crude in Asia.

As a result, Asian customers paid $18.92/b for a cargo of Saudi Arab Light loading over April, while paying $17.34/b for Upper Zakum, and $17.53/b for Qatar Marine crude loading in the same month.

For a 500,000-barrel cargo typical of Middle East crude loadings, that difference amounts to $791,500 between an April loading cargo of Arab Light and Upper Zakum, or a $695,000 difference between Arab Light and Qatar Marine.

Moving this sentence up ? In the same vein, a 500,000-barrel cargo of Iraq's Basrah Light crude loading over April would cost $17.23/b compared to $17.97/b for Saudi Arab Medium, or a total difference of $370,000 for the entire cargo.

The difference is likely to be compounded by the continuing divergence between underlying reference markers, with the spread between DME Oman and Platts Oman averaging $3.83/b so far in May, while posting similar increments against Platts M1 Cash Dubai and the front-month ICE Brent futures contract over the same time period.

The Arab Light May OSP was set at minus $7.30/b, minus $6.85/b for Upper Zakum, and Qatar at minus $7.10/b for its Marine grade.

"The May UZ OSP is Dubai minus $6.85/b, if [producers like] Saudi and SOMO don't cut [their prices] more, that means Upper Zakum is cheaper than Arab Light, Basrah Light etc," said a crude trader with a China-based company earlier this month.

Surging Chinese demand pushes Iraqi Basrah crude premiums to all-time high

M1 Basrah Light & Heavy crudes assessed at premiums of $4/b
Strength seen in spot market for Basrah grades   S&P Global Platts


Singapore — Price differentials for June loading cargoes of Iraq's Basrah crude heading to Asia rose to a record high Tuesday, boosted by firm Chinese demand, cheaper underlying crude benchmarks and OPEC+ supply cuts.

The OSP differentials for June loading, M1 Basrah Light and M1 Basrah Heavy crudes were assessed at premiums of $4/b on May 19, S&P Global Platts data showed.

These are the highest assessments for both Basrah Light and Heavy crude grades since Platts began publishing price differentials for the Iraqi crudes in November 2017, records showed.

The assessments reflected recent strength in spot market activity for the grades, particularly cargoes flowing into China, where the crude is one of the grades deliverable into the INE's Shanghai crude futures contract.

The most recent spot market trades depicted that Phillips 66 may have sold 2 million barrels of Light and Heavy crudes to Chinese refiners at premiums ranging from $4.50/b to $4.70/b, market participants told Platts on May 19.

Earlier in the month, at least 3 million barrels of Basrah Light changed hands at premiums ranging from $2/b to $3/b. At least two of the three cargoes sold then were understood to be headed to Asia, most likely China, said market participants.

Over March and April, Basrah crude cargoes also fetched firm premiums on the back of unrelenting demand from China, despite most other Middle East sour crudes seeing their spot rates dive into deep discounts.

For instance, a May loading cargo of Basrah Light fetched premiums of around $3/b mid-April, at the same time when Abu Dhabi's light sour Murban crude was trading at discounts of around $2/b to its OSP.

Even with spot cargoes fetching premiums over the official selling price, the final prices for these cargoes still work out to a net discount against the underlying benchmarks, according to Platts data.

The underlying OSP for Basrah crudes is perceived as relatively cheap by buyers in China, due to a combination of OSP cuts and low global oil prices, said traders of the grade in Asia.

Additionally, shorter supply of alternative medium and heavy sour grades in Europe, and availability of storage in China are some of the reasons why the Basrah cargoes continue to fetch high premiums amid a period of muted global crude demand, they added.

In recent weeks, buyers in China have taken advantage of low crude oil prices in the global market, while being guaranteed a floor price for its oil products domestically. China has a firm floor set for domestic oil product prices at $40/b as part of government measures to support the domestic refining industry.

Strength in the price of Shanghai crude oil futures hosted on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, or INE, and a doubling of storage capacity may also help explain the generous premiums paid for Basrah crudes by Chinese buyers, said market participants.

According to one Beijing-based analyst, this expanded capacity together with SC's premium against Middle East crudes would give more opportunity for physical players to bring cargoes onto warrant. According to INE data, the volume of crude held on warrant has already reached an all-time high, more than double to 8.2 million barrels on April 28, up from 3.4 million barrels at the beginning of the month.

More than 10 million barrels of Basrah Light and 4.4 million barrels of Oman have been bought onto warrant since the contract started trading in March 2018, the exchange data showed.



サウジアラビア 米国向け原油輸出

米国向けサウディタンカーの航行(中東の窓)

al jazeera net は現在サウディのタンカー28隻(うち14隻がスーパータンカーの由)が原油を積んで米国に向かいつつあると報じていて、これらのタンカーは4月24日から5月24日の間にメキシコ湾や米西海岸に到着すると報じています。

記事の要点は次の通りですが、このネットはサウディに敵対しているカタールのものにつき、念のため。

(1)コロナ禍は原油需要の急激な低下をもたらし、米国の原油タンクは満杯となり、多くの産油会社が操業を中止し、タンカーの動きも渋滞している。

(2)4月24日から5月24日の間にサウディのタンカー28隻が米国に到着する予定である。これらのタンカーにはRas Tanura等から4300万バレルの原油が積まれている。

(3)これらのタンカーは米国港の混雑をさらに悪化させるであろう。石油精製会社が原油引き取りを延期したり、中止したために過去数日間で、この混雑はさらに悪化したとしている。


●6月4日(2020)の追加

米国のサウジ原油輸入量
期間      日量平均
5/23 - 5/29  158万7千バレル
5/16 - 5/22  159万0千バレル
5/09 - 5/15   64万4千バレル
5/02 - 5/08   54万8千バレル
4/25 - 5/01   57万9千バレル
4/18 - 4/24   36万5千バレル
4/11 - 4/17   26万8千バレル
4/14 - 4/10   41万0千バレル


最新のデータは市況研究社をご覧ください。

Saudis Set to Sell 600,000 Barrels a Day of Oil to U.S. in April

Saudis Set to Sell 600,000 Barrels a Day of Oil to U.S. in April

Bloomberg News 2020年4月18日 8:30 JST

Saudi Arabia is set to sell about 600,000 barrels a day of crude to the U.S. in April, the highest volume in a year, according to a Saudi industry official familiar with allocations to American refiners.

The shipments, agreed with refiners as Saudi Arabia ramped up production to a record 12.3 million barrels a day this month, come at a moment when U.S. demand is sharply down due to lockdowns to slow the Covid-19 pandemic.

For May, state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. has said it will cut output to 8.5 million barrels a day as part of the OPEC+ agreement with Russia and other major producers. Its May allocations for U.S. refiners haven’t yet been completed, but it has already reduced the size of the the discounts it’s offering, which is likely to trigger some refiners to reduce their orders, the same official said.

Arab Light crude for May deliveries to the U.S. was priced at a discount of 75 cents per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index, compared with $3.75 in April.

The allocations usually track actual monthly shipments closely, although occasionally some tankers are loaded in a different month as operations may slip a few days.

Aramco appears to have front-loaded some of its shipments to the U.S. during the first days of April, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In the first seven days of the month, Aramco loaded 7 very large crude-carriers that are capable of carrying two million barrels each and are signaling the U.S. as a final destination. Since then, however, Aramco has loaded only two more tankers.

The flows of Saudi crude into the U.S. are closely watched as America publishes near real-time custom data information that allows traders to know when the oil is arriving. The U.S. also publishes weekly data on oil inventories, and more Saudi crude into the U.S. may contribute to higher stockpiles.

The U.S. imported 401,000 barrels a day of crude from Saudi Arabia in January, according to the latest monthly data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.


Bloombergは相変わらず、こういう「釣り記事」もある。

Energy Hedge Fund That Shorted Oil Sees Chance for $100 a Barrel
Even as oil prices are battered down to 18-year lows, one energy fund thinks $100 a barrel is achievable. But first, prices need to fall even further.
(2020年4月18日 0:24 JST)