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米国トウモロコシ

トウモロコシ相場  イリノイの天候と農作業(5月10日)

イリノイ北部

Lake County
5/10/2019
No report

Boone County
5/10/2019
The seed is still in the boxes, and I'm getting a little nervous. The neighbors who put corn in 10-12 days ago have sprouts a quarter-inch long. I haven't trespassed on anyone’s property to see if the beans are sprouting yet. It's 45 degrees at 10 p.m. (Thursday). I poured 1.25 inches out of the gauge this morning, while the range has been .7 to 1.75 inches for the county. I'm getting tired of doing odd jobs, but on the plus side, my honey-do list is getting whittled down. It would be great to do some planting.

DeKalb County
5/10/2019
Another week of bad weather and absolutely no fieldwork. More than 4 inches of rain fell last week. Creeks are swollen and low spots are full. Soils are saturated. The turmoil in international markets and unusual weather pattern are grinding away at optimism about this cropping season. We need a week of good weather just to dry out the mess we have now. In the meantime, I've been told "prayer helps." At least, the farm dads and children don't have to feel guilty about spending time with their wives and moms on Mother's Day.

Lee County
5/10/2019
Ticktock. Ticktock. That's the sound I hear as prime planting dates keep slipping by with every shower that passes through. We got a break from the heavy rains last week, but with the ground already saturated, it doesn't take much. The ground is too wet to even walk on. Needless to say, no fieldwork. I have been able to get a good start on some of my summer projects though.

Carroll County
5/10/2019
Rain on May 6 and 8 totaled .7 of an inch. The sun shown Tuesday, planters ran on fields that had some drainage. We planted our first fields in less-than-ideal conditions. I have not seen any corn emerged that was planted three weeks ago. Mother's Day may have to be shared with a tractor if the weather allows.

イリノイ西部

Mercer County
5/10/2019
We didn't get quite as much rain as was forecast, but the 1 to 2 inches we got will keep us out of the fields for some time. The earliest planted corn is starting to emerge, but I have not seen any soybeans emerged. I can’t hardly blame them as it felt more like March than May today. The Mississippi continues its record length flood.

Warren County
5/10/2019
Another cold and wet week here. One inch of rain at home and up to 2.5 inches in southern Warren County last week. Corn planted April 17 is just now emerging. There has been no fieldwork, planting or spraying for more than two weeks, and the forecast is for more rain this week. Not sure the trade understands what this weather delay really means. The trade war with all of our customers is not helping either. Pastures are very green with all of the rain.

Adams County
5/10/2019
It has been a wet week again in western Illinois. Everyone saw some amount of rainfall, but amounts were widely scattered. Southern areas of the county received very little, while our neighbors in Hancock County received more than 5 inches in two nights. Needless to say, it has not made poor field conditions any better. There are still a lot of fields where a tractor has not laid a track yet this year. Companies are now starting to consult their growers into the possibility of different nitrogen programs besides anhydrous. Flooding concerns are starting to slowly fade. We reached a new record for the third-highest crest at Quincy just over 29 feet, still 3 feet below the all-time record in 1993 of 32 feet. But a reprieve in the rainfall has allowed the river to fall at a good rate, and should be below comfortable levels by today or Tuesday. Time will tell if we will see another round come this summer.

Jersey County
5/10/2019
What a difference a year makes. A year ago, many were finishing planting, and the crop year was off and running. This year, the only thing growing is the sandbag pile on top of the levees. As of writing this, the local levee's are holding, but it has been touch-and-go for a while. Generally, no fieldwork has been done since last week. The few fields that have been planted seem to be emerging around the ditches and ponded areas. The pipeline is making progress, but the mess they are leaving behind is going to take more than a few years to straighten out. With the markets acting the way they are, there is not a lot to get excited about. Maybe next week will be better!

イリノイ中部

Stark County
5/10/2019
This week has been a repeat of the previous. Rain and more rain. Finally heard a good weather forecaster predict a change in the pattern to one that pushes the front to the east and blocks the flow of Gulf moisture. We need a good two-week opening to get this crop in. It will be at least this week after the rain early Thursday morning. I had a little less than 1 inch of rain for the week. With 50-degree temperatures, nothing is emerging either.

Peoria County
5/10/2019
More scattered rain fell across the area this week. Totals ranged from more than an inch to just a few tenths. Either way, basically no crops got planted. This rain delay vacation is getting old. Ground is very wet and cold. I have not seen any corn up yet. Time will tell how good of shape the first planted corn is in. Even the weeds aren't growing great. Hopefully, next article will be written from the seat of the planter tractor.

Livingston County
5/10/2019
Another week with no planting progress as it gets later every week on the calendar. Our area received anywhere from 1 to 2.2 inches of rain last week. We have been short on growing degree days to get what corn is planted out of the ground. Saturated soil doesn't help either. About another 10 days and we will have the hassle of trying to substitute earlier varieties for our late ones sitting in the shed. Markets are ridiculously low for all the delayed planting leading to decreased yields. Trade talks and tweets are killing us farmers.

McLean County
5/10/2019
No fieldwork has been done here since April 26. More rain produces bigger ponds. Tributaries are full and water cannot get downstream. What few acres that were planted are struggling to emerge. Markets? They can only go to zero! Corn, $3.26; fall, $3.38; beans, $7.53; fall, $7.84; wheat, $3.69.

Menard County
5/10/2019
It is wet, and nobody is rolling, which means it is really wet. Corn that is planted (not ours because we don't have anything but a garden planted) is having emergence trouble and needs a rain. Ironic. We have spent the week hauling corn. We missed the last two forecast rains. If the weather holds, we might be able to plant during the weekend.

Sangamon County
5/10/2019
Rain fell four of the last seven days. The good news is the amount of rain is lower than previous weeks. We received 1.08 inches for the week, while other parts of the county received nearly 2 inches. Some fields are covered in water along the rivers and streams. A few fields were planted between rains. Markets do not reflect the production from our county at this time. Hopefully, there will be positive news on the trade talks sometime soon. A lot of anxiety and anxious operators are wanting to do what they do best -- produce great crops.

Macon County
5/10/2019
Another week with little field activity. Our saturated soils received another 1.9 inches of rain Wednesday night. Ponds and creeks are refilled. We still have less than 2 percent of the corn and soybeans planted. Our planter has not left the shed yet. Was always too wet even for a test run. At least, we will be making our mothers happy with our attendance during the weekend.

Shelby County
5/10/2019
Rain and more rain. Zero planted. The county probably has 200 acres planted and that's probably a push. Fields are green but not with crops.

Fayette County
5/10/2019
We have reported six weeks now and have reported rain every week. We received rain Wednesday night and Thursday – from a few tenths to well over an inch across the county. Still no, to very little fieldwork occurred. We are all hoping for a dry period to get in the fields and get the crop in the ground. Lawns continue to grow, and many yards can't even be mowed decently or without getting stuck. Everyone have a good week.

■イリノイ東部

Iroquois County
5/10/2019
Soils are saturated again with rain Wednesday and Thursday. A few locations received rain Tuesday night, but we didn't. There were a few few fields sprayed with herbicides Wednesday before the widespread rain. Otherwise, there was no field activity all week. We received a range of 1.1 to 1.3 inches of rain for the week. I have seen some soybean plants emerged but not consistently across the field. Local closing prices for May 9 were $3.25, nearby corn; $3.34, new-crop corn; $7.52, nearby soybeans; $7.75 new-crop soybeans.

Champaign County
5/10/2019
Activity in the field slowly picked up last week with a few nice drying days. A few sprayers started to move Monday applying burndown and some pre-emerge herbicides. The early part of the week also involved some anhydrous application. A few planters worked fields Tuesday and Wednesday across parts of the county. The majority of folks kept their planters in the sheds, as many fields were still a day or more away from being dry enough to plant. Most activity was on the best drained farms in the area. Wednesday brought us three-quarters of an inch of rain.

Coles County
5/10/2019
I finally have some reporting to do this week. In select areas of northern Coles County, it dried out enough to see some corn and soybeans planted in the early part of the week. Early Thursday morning, showers came at us again bringing more than a half-inch. The extended forecast is not as adverse looking as we have gotten used to, so hopefully we will see some wider working windows soon. We are barely getting started in this area.

Jasper County
5/10/2019
We have had another wet week. Some spraying has taken place in less-than-ideal conditions until Wednesday night when rain moved in, bringing everything to a halt. Our gauge showed .3 of an inch. This sounds like a broken record. Hoping for drier, warmer weather this week.

Wabash County
5/10/2019
There was very little field activity again last week. Some fields are getting close, but it is raining as I write this report Thursday evening. The Wabash River is still above flood stage and will remain there for at least another week. I hope to get fungicide on my wheat Friday. I will be using aerial application because the ground is not solid enough for a ground rig.

■イリノイ南部

St. Clair County
5/10/2019
Last week, fields started to dry enough to allow applications of burndown herbicides and some anhydrous on high ground. Even a field of corn was planted where the ground was tilled previously and had time to dry. Most of the ground remained too wet to work. Rain moved back into the area by midweek and stopped all fieldwork. Flooding in the river bottoms is keeping farmers from their fields. Several fields of corn have emerged and are about 2 inches tall. These fields were planted about three weeks ago on a light, well-drained soil. The wheat crop is heading out. Time will tell how much impact the wet weather will have on this crop at this crucial time of development. Alfalfa weevil has enjoyed this wet environment. I've observed several fields of alfalfa where severe feeding had occurred. Local grain bids are corn, $3.40; soybeans, $7.81; wheat, $4.34. Have a safe week.

Jackson County
5/10/2019
No report

Saline County
5/10/2019
One word: WET.

Pulaski County
5/10/2019
We have not been in the field since my last report. A few acres have been planted in drier areas and under less-than-ideal conditions. As I send in this report Thursday evening, we have had light rain and drizzle most of the day. While there’s not much accumulation, it just adds to already wet conditions. With more rain forecast for the weekend, I don't know when we will be able to get into the field. Please have a safe week.

トウモロコシ相場  イリノイ州の天候と農作業(5月3日)

■イリノイ北部

Lake County
5/3/2019

Boone County
5/3/2019
We started the week with 6 inches of snow April 28. I had my planter in the shed and friends had Christmas lights fired up on their front porch. Since then, we have had a grand total of 2.8 inches of water in the gauge. The thermometer is stuck in the 40s, while our local Piscasaw Creek is just about to go over its banks. In short, it's not ideal corn planting weather. The county is probably 10 percent planted. Each of us made strategic decisions about whether to go or not. We'll have a better idea who made the correct decision in a couple weeks. I hope the sun is shining on your farm.

DeKalb County
5/3/2019
We had 6 inches of rain last week. The ground is supersaturated, and there are ponds and water everywhere. It's going to take a lot of hard work to get the fields back in shape from all the gullies and piles of residue. Obviously, none of the planted crops have emerged, and even the wheat has taken on a sickly yellow color. We have been focusing on other jobs besides being in the fields.

Lee County
5/3/2019
In the last eight days, I dumped 6.9 inches of rain out of my gauge. Needless to say, the ground is saturated, ditches are full and so are the tile lines. It will be interesting to see how the corn that is already planted fares with the cold rain. Soil temperatures have dropped back below 50 degrees but should start climbing higher as temperatures are forecast in the 60s and 70s this week.

Carroll County
5/3/2019
April rain totaled 5.45 inches. We had 4.25 inches last week which included up to 6 inches of snow. On April 28, the temperature was 24 degrees, freezing some flowering plants. NO fieldwork was done last week. I don't think any germination took place on these cool days with soil temps under 50 degrees. Old Man River has been wild, flooding more businesses, homes and fields. Our prayers go to those who are affected by the destruction.

■イリノイ西部

Mercer County
5/3/2019
There is running or standing water anywhere you look after more than 5 inches of rain the last few days. The coming week may have heavy rain as well, so planting is on hold for well into May. The Mississippi has been above flood stage for a record 40 days so far and set an all-time high crest in Davenport Thursday. The Edwards River is out as bad as ever over many acres, some of which had been planted. I’m not sure if it is better to be planted or in the bag at this time, so I will be content with being half done with corn.

Warren County
5/3/2019
We finished planting corn April 26. It was a good feeling to be done. Then it started raining, and we received 5 inches of rain starting April 28. We now have lots of ponds in the fields and not sure if the corn will ever emerge. We will be out of the fields for an extended period of time. We also have several flood gaps to repair in the pastures when the water level in the streams goes down. Mother Nature is taking care of our surplus of grain. The CBOT just doesn't appear to notice it yet.

Adams County
5/3/2019
There was a mad rush to the finish line for farmers around the area before we received 2 to 5 inches of rain last week. Estimates from Hancock County are that about 40 percent of the corn has been planted. I have not heard any estimates from Adams. Planters will be in dry dock for several weeks now. Our focus is now intently on the Mississippi River. The sudden rainfall, coupled with heavy rains in Iowa last week, have the river at critical levels. If we do not get any more rain, we might be OK. But another inch will push levels to the top of the levees. With little time to sandbag or push up these levees, there's a strong possibility for several breaches going into the weekend. Prayers appreciated, please.

■イリノイ中央部

Stark County
5/3/2019
What's to say after a long week of rainout? We certainly caught up on errands, repairs and honeydo's. We've had between 4 to 5 inches of rain here in Stark County. With rain forecast Sunday through Wednesday this week, it would be nice to see the markets go up.

Peoria County
5/3/2019
Rain all across the area with totals around 4 inches. Some corn has been planted in the area, but for the most part, there's a lot left to be planted. This rain gave us a nice break, as if we were working too hard for about three days. Will be interesting to see what happens this week with rain forecast. With the wet weather, our plan was to haul corn, but now the river is flooding and can't move corn.

Livingston County
5/3/2019
Rain last week caused floods to many fields and streams. Our total was 5.2 inches. It will take a long time to dry out, but another rain event is expected this week. Corn market has not responded much yet. One would think the funds would have to liquidate some day.

McLean County
5/3/2019
Four to 6 inches of rain fell, causing flooding and ponding everywhere. Some corn and beans did get planted, maybe up to 10 percent total. It will now be at least a week before we get planting again. Seems reminiscent of 2011 or 1993. Markets continue lower. Corn, $3.42; fall, $3.52; beans, $7.83; fall, $8.10; wheat, $3.86.

Menard County
5/3/2019
Rain, rain and more rain. Flooded fields, closed roads and upset farmers. The bright side for this week was impromptu dates with my husband and pretty good morel mushroom hunting.

Sangamon County
5/3/2019
We received 3.5 to 5.5 inches last week around the county. Streams and rivers are all out of their banks. On April 27-28, a lot of anhydrous ammonia went on. There were some corn and soybean planters running in the area. Markets are not reflecting the delayed planting in our area. Rumor has it that the mushroom crop is pretty good this year. Some of the topics of the week are replant and prevent plant. Be sure and understand your policy. We WILL have lots of sunshine sometime in the future.

Macon County
5/3/2019
Another nonproductive week with more than 3 inches of rain. With our saturation level at 100 percent and a poor forecast for this week, we could lose another week. At this point, we have less than 2 percent of the corn and soybeans planted. This is one of the latest starts in years with a lot of tillage, spraying and fertilizer application ahead of planting to be accomplished.

Shelby County
5/3/2019
Rain. Rain. Sun. Sun. Sun. Rain. Rain. And repeat. Some anhydrous went on last week. Very few acres were planted. We had .7 May 1. When you get .7 and there is water standing, you know it wasn’t too dry underneath. We had 4.9 inches of rain for April and 7.7 inches for March. I was told corn basis improved enough during April that cash corn from the end of March to the end of April was up 6 cents. For the month, fall corn was down 1 cent, cash beans down 34 cents and fall beans down 44 cents. A lot of corn and beans remain in elevators and farmers’ hands. Have a safe week, and as I tell my son, "it will dry up one of these days … I think."

Fayette County
5/3/2019
Kind of a broken record around here. Another 3/4 of an inch of rain since last report. A little burndown spraying occurred Monday and Tuesday, and then showers came across late Tuesday evening. On Thursday, it rained again off and on all day, and as this report is given, we have light rain still occurring. A few days now into May and still no fieldwork. As we continue with this wet weather pattern, the markets don't see much reflection. They continue to ease downward. Hoping for some drier weather in the near future.

■イリノイ東部

Iroquois County
5/3/2019
Field activities came to a standstill last week. We received 4.1 inches of rain. Soils are saturated. Planting is going to be quite a bit later than what we have been accustomed to during the past few years. No crops have emerged from the few area fields that were planted thus far. Local closing prices for May 2 were $3.36, nearby corn; $3.48, new-crop corn; $7.75, nearby soybeans; $8.04, new-crop soybeans.

Champaign County
5/3/2019
Another week has come and gone without any fieldwork done. The very few soybeans that were planted last week have not come up. I will count my blessings that in Sidney we only received an inch and a quarter last week. You do not have to travel far north and west to get into Ford or McLean County where rainfall was double and folks are dealing with flooding.

Coles County
5/3/2019
The calendar page has changed; the planting situation has not. It also seems like I could copy and paste my previous week's weather comments. Very few have tried to go when at all possible, cleaning mud out of the planter as they go. We will just keep waiting for better days. Remember: Farmers always keep the faith.

Jasper County
5/3/2019
Light rain fell almost every day last week. It's still raining as we write this report, keeping soils wet. Some burndown spray took place where conditions permitted. The weeds are dying where the earlier burndown was applied. No planting has taken place nor is in the foreseeable future. More rain is in the forecast.

Wabash County
5/3/2019
I dumped 1 inch of rain from my gauge Thursday night. There was possibly one day fit for fieldwork last week. With more rain in the forecast, I doubt there will be any field activity for a while. The river is above flood stage. It has crested, but with a slow fall, it will be hard for ground to dry until the river is below flood stage.

■イリノイ南西部

Jersey County
5/3/2019
A couple of days of fieldwork, then the rains came. And did they ever. One thing about getting more than 4 inches of rain is that it finds its way out of the field, and all you have left are some fairly deep ditches. That much rain causes major flooding, elevators closed and will most likely put everything on hold for another 10 days. Looks like we will get another chance to recharge before everything breaks loose again.

St. Clair County
5/3/2019
Last week proved to be another cloudy, rainy event with more than 1 inch for the week. Tractors remained idle. Rainfall throughout the Midwest is creating difficulties for communities and farmers along the Mississippi River. Rapid, rising water levels have forced those along the river to prepare for the fourth-highest flooding levels since 1993. Grain terminals have shut down for the second time this year due to unsafe water levels. Local grain bids are corn, $3.58; soybeans, $8.10; and wheat, $4.49. Have a safe week.

■イリノイ南部

Jackson County
5/3/2019
More rain! For another week that's all that has been going on around here. With more rain in the forecast for this week, it looks like it's going to be a while before we can get anything done. Water is high everywhere and seems to be getting higher. The river bottom ground on the west side of the county is most affected. Several roads are underwater and impassable, and Route 3 is closed. The river stage is forecast to crest at 44.5 feet, just 5 feet shy of the 1993 flood. Farmers are moving grain out and some are even starting to move equipment. Let's pray it doesn't get any worse. Wish us luck, and everyone stay safe. It could be a long week for us down here.

Saline County
5/3/2019
It's rained so much that the fish are hunting higher ground. Wheat is heading and needs to be sprayed, but we can't get a window to do it! No planting last week and probably not any for the next 10 days. And as far as the CBOT is concerned, they could care less the way the markets are reacting to our planting progress!

Pulaski County
5/3/2019
Another wet week. We managed to get into the field Tuesday and that was it. Rain started again Wednesday morning, and it rained all day Thursday with a total of more than 2.5 inches. With more rainfall in the forecast for the weekend and all next week, it will definitely be a late planting season in this part of Illinois. Hopefully, things will go smoothly when we do get into the field. Have a safe week.

韓国のトウモロコシ購入価格と数量

South Korea completes about 90% of 2019's total corn imports

Agriculture 18 Apr 2019 | 04:24 UTC Singapore

Singapore — Buying consortiums in South Korea have completed importing about 90% of their requirements for 2019 at around 9 million mt, industry sources said late Wednesday.

South Korean buying groups are currently looking out for December offers, after procuring cargoes at much lower prices month on month over the last few months. August arrival cargoes were concluded at an average of around $196/mt CFR South Korea, September cargoes averaged $194/mt CFR, and tenders concluded in the past two weeks for November cargoes were awarded at $187-$188/mt CFR.

South Korea last year tendered for December delivery six months ahead in June, S&P Global Platts data in 2018 showed.

"The market has a record net short on futures and the delayed plantings are bullish factors," one trader said.

Weakness in CBOT futures spurred the buying spree in South Korea, sources said. The front-month CBOT futures price started the year firm at $3.83/bushel on January 4, but fell to a year-to-date low of $3.52/bu on March 11. The front-month CBOT contract settled at $3.58/bu on Wednesday.

台湾のトウモロコシ購入価格

CBOTトウモロコシ先物 米国現地 2019年4月17日(水)
限月     始値   高値   安値   帳入値  前日比
05月限 19  358'25  360'00  356'75  358'25  -0'75
07月限 19  367'00  368'75  365'50  367'00  -0'75
09月限 19  375'25  377'00  373'75  375'00  -1'00
12月限 19  387'25  388'50  385'25  386'75  -0'75
03月限 20  401'00  402'25  399'50  400'75  -0'75
 
CBOTトウモロコシ先物 米国現地 2019年4月16日(火)
限月     始値   高値   安値   帳入値  前日比
05月限 19  362'50  362'50  357'25  359'00  -3'75
07月限 19  371'25  371'25  366'25  367'75  -3'75
09月限 19  379'00  379'25  374'25  376'00  -3'50
12月限 19  390'25  390'50  386'00  387'50  -3'25
03月限 20  404'00  404'25  400'25  401'50  -3'00    
 
CBOTトウモロコシ先物 米国現地 2019年4月15日(月)
限月     始値   高値   安値   帳入値  前日比
05月限 19  361'25  364'25  361'00  362'75  +1'75
07月限 19  369'75  373'00  369'50  371'50  +2'00
09月限 19  378'25  380'75  378'00  379'50  +2'00
12月限 19  389'50  391'75  389'00  390'75  +1'75
03月限 20  403'50  405'50  403'00  404'50  +1'50
 
●台湾の購入価格
 
台湾の飼料原料調達組織「MFIG」は昨日17日(水)、6万5,000トンのトウモロコシを6-7月積みで購入した。「The corn was all bought at a premium of 107.79 US cents c&f over the Chicago September corn contract. The seller was thought to be trading house CHS.
 
<2019年4月17日(水)
Buyer    台湾MFIG
Seller    CHS
Origin    米国産あるいはブラジル産 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   65,000トン
Shipment   2019年6月27日-7月16日
C&F basis  $1.0779/bu.+シカゴ(CBOT)2019年9月限
 
シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ 2019年9月限のプライシングの加重平均値を「今朝の帳入値=375'00」とするなら「107'79+375'00=482'79/bu.」、米ドル/メトリック・トンに換算「4.82'79/bu.×39.368=$190.065 mt/CFR」
 
台湾の調達価格で「約190ドル」、韓国で「188ドル-189ドル」あたりです。
 
●「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス
 
当社が指標にしている「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準は足もとでとても強い。
 
当社では、シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ先物を分析するとき「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準を感度のよい指標にしています。
 
シカゴ(CBOT)先物がファンドの売りによって下げていても、米中西部供給地の「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が上昇しているときは、シカゴ(CBOT)先物の下値は限定されています。ファンドの売りに追随することはできない。
 
反対に「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が下落しているなら、売りで行くことができる。シカゴ(CBOT)先物でファンドの買いが続き、相場が跳ね上げているときでも、「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が低下しているときはシカゴ(CBOT)先物の高値に持続力はありません。<売り>を追求します。
 
本年の作付けまで、まだ時間があります。種もまいていないうちから先を急ぐことはできません。3月から4月は必要な時間をかけながら進むときです。シカゴ(CBOT)先物の建玉整理は例年7月限の受渡通知(6月末)に向けて進みます。それに焦点を合わせて、売りの展望を切り拓いていければよいと考えています。
 
#2 黄トウモロコシ
     K=2019年5月限
日付   シカゴ基準限月  オマハ現物   ベーシス
 
4/17 2019  3.5825 K   3.54-3.58    -4K  0K unch
4/16 2019  3.5900 K   3.55-3.59    -4K  0K up 1-up 2
4/15 2019  3.6275 K   3.58-3.61    -5K -2K up 1-unch
 
4/12 2019  3.6100 K   3.55-3.59    -6K -2K dn 1-up 1
4/11 2019  3.6000 K   3.55-3.57    -5K -3K up 3-up 2
4/10 2019  3.6175 K   3.54-3.57    -8K -5K unch
4/09 2019  3.6000 K   3.52-3.55    -8K -5K unch-up 1
4/08 2019  3.6000 K   3.52-3.54    -8K -6K unch
 
4/05 2019  3.6250 K   3.54-3.56    -8K -6K unch-up 2
4/04 2019  3.6525 K   3.57      -8K    unch
4/03 2019  3.6275 K   3.55      -8K    unch
4/02 2019  3.6150 K   3.54      -8K    up 1-unch
4/01 2019  3.6175 K   3.53-3.54    -9K -8K up 1
 
●シカゴ(CBOT)5月限の値段と建玉
 
シカゴ(CBOT)期近5月限は4月30日に受渡通知初日を控えています。
 
日付 5月限値段 出来高  5限建玉 7限建玉 9限建玉 12限建玉 総取組高
 
4/17 3.5825  340,507
4/16 3.5900  401,232  422,428 721,065 204,131 288,362 181万0,497(枚)
4/15 3.6275  445,668  434,031 690,736 200,963 289,282 178万7,978
 
4/12 3.6100  225,038  473,370 652,194 200,634 288,246 178万3,219
4/11 3.6000  541,084  484,092 634,652 197,800 285,704 176万7,889
4/10 3.6175  535,084  523,089 585,309 197,335 284,453 175万2,937
4/09 3.6000  595,547  553,142 556,095 199,757 279,546 174万8,710
4/08 3.6000  573,629  594,279 505,452 206,562 278,352 173万9,921
 
4/05 3.6250  537,045  634,582 478,870 212,357 278,496 175万4,507
4/04 3.6525  333,600  688,126 467,074 216,180 276,999 179万4,881
4/03 3.6275  288,435  706,011 468,777 219,089 277,107 181万5,019
4/02 3.6150  370,347  712,575 468,032 225,085 275,913 182万3,857
4/01 3.6175  468,029  713,019 462,910 229,753 276,592 181万7,042
 
3/29 3.5650 1,077,787  746,172 457,400 234,112 283,054 184万9,007
3/28 3.7400  197,710  736,500 443,104 228,907 296,118 182万7,656
3/27 3.7375  242,931  742,040 437,951 224,147 297,466 182万2,323
3/26 3.7725  305,650  743,553 433,457 219,938 298,359 181万3,508
3/25 3.7975  290,371  758,162 417,226 219,313 298,018 180万9,795
 
3/22 3.7825  415,903  767,635 418,047 217,853 303,296 182万0,847
3/21 3.7625  426,689  777,649 403,079 220,770 302,097 181万6,855
3/20 3.7150  173,690  783,752 396,843 218,422 299,780 180万9,700
3/19 3.7125  278,990  788,001 394,196 218,392 299,214 181万0,048
3/18 3.7150  319,022  786,945 389,102 218,204 297,249 180万1,108
 
3/15 3.7325  355,215  780,609 384,534 210,659 298,758 178万3,193
3/14 3.7025  353,712  784,390 385,659 207,480 293,233 177万5,708
3/13 3.6650  309,271  788,284 390,346 203,323 289,526 177万1,324
3/12 3.6575  488,697  792,945 380,612 201,615 285,726 175万7,475
3/11 3.6200  307,653  784,682 375,697 200,650 286,336 174万1,975
 
3/08 3.6425  386,854  785,937 367,368 201,300 284,354 173万0,371
3/07 3.6525  478,514  789,901 358,902 193,219 279,791 171万3,056
3/06 3.7250  248,019  789,879 350,159 184,785 275,131 168万9,938
3/05 3.7575  211,899  787,764 340,551 177,631 274,770 166万7,797
3/04 3.7475  230,218  791,598 341,841 176,469 276,840 167万2,510
 
3/01 3.7300  369,345  794,743 339,342 178,189 272,237 167万0,887
2/28 3.7075  305,558  782,086 338,082 175,985 268,494 165万0,953
2/27 3.7375  640,724  761,224 335,817 173,275 263,742 162万9,608
2/26 3.7600  733,799  734,801 328,405 170,711 258,836 166万1,824
2/25 3.8000  855,233  692,758 322,019 165,443 252,956 165万4,017
 
2/22 3.8450  679,484  662,858 325,893 163,914 250,842 172万3,612
2/21 3.8425  622,168  615,199 320,177 159,839 246,721 174万4,584
2/20 3.7950  620,458  597,899 321,784 157,928 245,112 177万9,049
2/19 3.7800  472,295  576,280 313,944 154,425 244,813 178万6,101
2/18 Washington's Birthday(President's Day)

韓国のトウモロコシ購入価格

韓国は4月に入って「10-11月入着玉」のカバーを進捗させている。

例年より進捗ペースが早い。この早いペースで行けば、4月中に10-11月入着玉、5月上旬には12月入着玉、今後1カ月程度のあいだに年内の手配を一巡させる可能性がある。

市況ニュースの記事などから拾い出したものをまとめて記します。

●2019年4月3日(水)

Buyer    韓国飼料協会(釜山)
Seller    Pan Ocean
Origin    optional-origin(米国あるいは南米産)飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   66,000トン
Arrival   2019年10月25日
C&F basis  $191.25/mt CFR
plus $1.00/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

●2019年4月1日(月)

Buyer    韓国 Feed Leaders Committee(FLC)
Seller    Glencore
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   68,000トン
Arrival   2019年11月15日
C&F basis  $189.89/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

●2019年3月29日(金)

Buyer    韓国 Major Feedmill Group(MFG)
Seller    Cagill
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   69,000トン
Arrival   2019年10月27日
C&F basis  $189.99/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

Buyer    韓国 Feed Leaders Committee(FLC)
Seller
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   65,000トン
Arrival
C&F basis  $191.49/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

Buyer    韓国農協(農協飼料)
Seller    Pan Ocean
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   69,000トン
Arrival   2019年9月25日
C&F basis  $192.65/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

●2019年3月28日(木)

Buyer    韓国 Major Feedmill Group(MFG)
Seller
Origin   (おそらく)南米産 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   69,000トン
Arrival   2019年9月20日
C&F basis  $192.90/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading


トウモロコシ相場  作付け意向面積(2019)

作付け意向面積(Prospective Plantings)
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2019 is estimated at 92.8 million acres, up 4 percent or 3.66 million acres
from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 34 of the 48
estimating States.

Soybean planted area for 2019 is estimated at 84.6 million acres, down 5 percent from last year.
Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 26 of the 29 estimating States.

●米国の作付面積 推移

本年(2019)2月22日(金)のアウトルック・フォーラムで米農務省が予想した数字と、今回の3月作付け意向面積を比較します。
 
単位:エーカー     全小麦   トウモロコシ  大豆
2019年3月意向面積    4575万    9280万    8460万
             ↑      ↑      ↑
2019年2月22日フォーラム 4700万    9200万    8500万
             ↑      ↑      ↑
2018年実績       4780万    8910万    8920万
2017年実績       4610万    9020万    9016万
2016年実績       5010万    9400万    8350万
2015年実績       5500万    8800万    8270万
2014年実績       5680万    9060万    8330万
2013年実績       5620万    9540万    7680万
2012年実績       5530万    9730万    7720万

●Corn Area Planted - States and United States: 2017-2019

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                                 Area planted
        State       :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :       2017        :       2018        :      2019 1/      :    Percent of
                    :                   :                   :                   :   previous year
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :      ----------------- 1,000 acres ----------------              percent
                    :
Alabama ............:         250                 260                 280                108
Arizona ............:          65                  70                  75                107
Arkansas ...........:         620                 660                 830                126
California .........:         430                 430                 430                100
Colorado ...........:       1,460               1,470               1,430                 97
Connecticut ........:          24                  23                  22                 96
Delaware ...........:         180                 170                 170                100
Florida ............:          75                 100                  80                 80
Georgia ............:         290                 325                 380                117
Idaho ..............:         340                 360                 310                 86
                    :
Illinois ...........:      11,200              11,000              11,200                102
Indiana ............:       5,350               5,350               5,500                103
Iowa ...............:      13,300              13,200              13,600                103
Kansas .............:       5,500               5,450               5,700                105
Kentucky ...........:       1,320               1,340               1,430                107
Louisiana ..........:         500                 460                 550                120
Maine ..............:          31                  31                  30                 97
Maryland ...........:         480                 450                 500                111
Massachusetts ......:          15                  14                  14                100
Michigan ...........:       2,250               2,300               2,350                102
                    :
Minnesota ..........:       8,050               7,900               8,000                101
Mississippi ........:         520                 480                 600                125
Missouri ...........:       3,400               3,500               3,500                100
Montana ............:         115                 115                 105                 91
Nebraska ...........:       9,550               9,600               9,700                101
Nevada .............:          12                  13                  11                 85
New Hampshire ......:          14                  13                  12                 92
New Jersey .........:          77                  72                  72                100
New Mexico .........:         125                 135                 125                 93
New York ...........:       1,000               1,100               1,120                102
                    :
North Carolina .....:         890                 910                 970                107
North Dakota .......:       3,420               3,150               4,050                129
Ohio ...............:       3,400               3,500               3,500                100
Oklahoma ...........:         350                 320                 300                 94
Oregon .............:          85                  80                  80                100
Pennsylvania .......:       1,350               1,350               1,370                101
Rhode Island .......:           2                   2                   2                100
South Carolina .....:         350                 340                 400                118
South Dakota .......:       5,700               5,300               6,000                113
Tennessee ..........:         750                 740                 850                115
                    :
Texas ..............:       2,450               2,200               2,150                 98
Utah ...............:          80                  70                  60                 86
Vermont ............:          82                  85                  83                 98
Virginia ...........:         500                 485                 490                101
Washington .........:         170                 165                 170                103
West Virginia ......:          50                  46                  51                111
Wisconsin ..........:       3,900               3,900               4,050                104
Wyoming ............:          95                  95                  90                 95
                    :
United States ......:      90,167              89,129              92,792                104
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Intended plantings in 2019 as indicated by reports from farmers.        

●Soybean Area Planted - States and United States: 2017-2019
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                                 Area planted                                  
        State       :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :       2017        :       2018        :      2019 1/      :    Percent of
                    :                   :                   :                   :   previous year
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :      ----------------- 1,000 acres ----------------              percent
                    :
Alabama ............:         350                 345                 280                 81
Arkansas ...........:       3,530               3,280               3,100                 95
Delaware ...........:         160                 170                 170                100
Florida 2/ .........:          15                  18                (NA)                (X)
Georgia ............:         155                 145                 130                 90
Illinois ...........:      10,600              10,800              10,500                 97
Indiana ............:       5,950               5,950               5,700                 96
Iowa ...............:      10,000              10,000               9,400                 94
Kansas .............:       5,150               4,750               4,950                104
Kentucky ...........:       1,950               2,000               1,750                 88
                    :
Louisiana ..........:       1,270               1,340               1,130                 84
Maryland ...........:         500                 520                 510                 98
Michigan ...........:       2,280               2,300               2,200                 96
Minnesota ..........:       8,150               7,800               7,300                 94
Mississippi ........:       2,190               2,230               2,000                 90
Missouri ...........:       5,950               5,850               5,500                 94
Nebraska ...........:       5,700               5,700               5,400                 95
New Jersey .........:         100                 105                  97                 92
New York ...........:         270                 330                 330                100
North Carolina .....:       1,700               1,650               1,550                 94
                    :
North Dakota .......:       7,100               6,900               6,500                 94
Ohio ...............:       5,100               5,000               4,950                 99
Oklahoma ...........:         655                 630                 650                103
Pennsylvania .......:         610                 640                 650                102
South Carolina .....:         400                 390                 330                 85
South Dakota .......:       5,650               5,650               5,200                 92
Tennessee ..........:       1,690               1,700               1,500                 88
Texas ..............:         210                 175                 100                 57
Virginia ...........:         600                 600                 590                 98
West Virginia 2/ ...:          27                  28                (NA)                (X)
Wisconsin ..........:       2,150               2,200               2,150                 98
                    :
United States ......:      90,162              89,196              84,617                 95
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X)  Not applicable.
1/   Intended plantings in 2019 as indicated by reports from farmers.
2/   Estimates discontinued in 2019.

Released March 29, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

トウモロコシ相場  全米在庫(Grain Stocks )

全米在庫(Grain Stocks )

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2019 totaled 8.60 billion bushels.
The December 2018 - February 2019 indicated disappearance is 3.33 billion bushels,
compared with 3.67 billion bushels during the same period last year.


●米国トウモロコシの全米在庫と期間の消費量
 
上の米農務省のコメントが言及しているように2018年12月1日~2019年2月28日の米国トウモロコシの消費量は「33億3191万6千ブッシェル」であった。前年同期(2017年12月1日~2018年2月28日」の消費量は「36億7437万5千ブッシェル」だったので「前年同期比-3億4245万9千ブッシェル減」となった。米国エタノール生産が前年割れ、米国内の飼料需要も増加していない。
 
<期間の消費量(単位:ブッシェル)
        On farm   Off farm    Total    四半期の消費量
02/01(2019) 51億3100万 34億7388万2千 86億0488万2千  33億3191万6千
12/01(2018) 74億5100万 44億8579万8千 119億3679万8千  46億2363万8千
新穀生産高  144億2010万1千ブッシェル
09/01(2018)  6億0000万 15億2033万5千 21億4033万5千  31億6446万9千
06/01(2018) 27億5010万 25億5470万4千 53億0480万4千  35億8732万2千
03/01(2018) 50億0200万 38億9012万6千 88億9212万6千  36億7437万5千
12/01(2017) 77億3900万 48億2750万1千 125億6650万1千  43億3086万9千
新穀生産高  146億0406万7千ブッシェル
09/01(2017)  7億8700万 15億0630万3千 22億9330万3千  29億3577万9千
06/01(2017) 28億4140万 23億8768万2千 52億2908万2千  33億9291万0千
03/01(2017) 49億0800万 37億1399万2千 86億2199万2千  37億6147万9千
12/01(2016) 76億1100万 47億7247万1千 123億8347万1千  45億0162万5千
新穀生産高  151億4803万8千ブッシェル
09/01(2016)  6億2740万 11億0965万8千 17億3705万8千  29億7402万1千
06/01(2016) 24億7140万 22億3967万9千 47億1107万9千  31億1115万4千
03/01(2016) 43億3500万 34億8723万3千 78億2223万3千  34億1294万5千
12/01(2015) 68億2900万 44億0617万8千 112億3517万8千  40億9718万4千
新穀生産高  136億0119万8千ブッシェル
09/01(2015)  5億9300万 11億3816万4千 17億3116万4千  27億2182万4千
06/01(2015) 22億7500万 21億7798万8千 44億5298万8千  32億9681万8千
03/01(2015) 43億8000万 33億6980万6千 77億4980万6千  34億6157万4千


●全米在庫(ブッシェル)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2018                 :                 2019
                :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :     On     :    Off     : Total all
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                                1,000 bushels
Corn            :
March 1 ........: 5,002,000    3,890,126     8,892,126   5,131,000    3,473,882    8,604,882
June 1 .........: 2,750,100    2,554,704     5,304,804
September 1 ....:   620,000    1,520,335     2,140,335
December 1 .....: 7,451,000    4,485,798    11,936,798
                :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2017                 :
                :---------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :             1,000 bushels
Corn            :
March 1 ........: 4,908,000    3,713,992     8,621,992
June 1 .........: 2,841,400    2,387,682     5,229,082
September 1 ....:   787,000    1,506,303     2,293,303
December 1 .....: 7,739,000    4,827,501    12,566,501
                :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2016                 :
                :---------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :             1,000 bushels
Corn            :        
March 1 ........: 4,335,000    3,487,233     7,822,233
June 1 .........: 2,471,400    2,239,679     4,711,079
September 1 ....:   627,400    1,109,658     1,737,058
December 1 .....: 7,611,000    4,772,471    12,383,471
                :
●全米在庫(メトリック・トン)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2018                 :                 2019
                :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :     On     :    Off     : Total all
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :                                 metric tons
Corn            :
March 1 ........:127,056,650   98,813,750  225,870,400  130,333,400   88,240,670  218,574,070
June 1 .........: 69,855,760   64,892,470  134,748,230
September 1 ....: 15,748,730   38,618,290   54,367,010
December 1 .....:189,264,120  113,944,520  303,208,640
                :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2017                 :
                :---------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :             metric tons
Corn            :
March 1 ........:124,668,940   94,339,740  219,008,680
June 1 .........: 72,174,880   60,649,920  132,824,800
September 1 ....: 19,990,720   38,261,860   58,252,580
December 1 .....:196,579,650  122,624,170  319,203,830
                :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :                 2016                 :
                :---------------------------------------
      Date      :     On     :    Off     : Total all  :
                :   farms    :  farms 1/  : positions  :
--------------------------------------------------------
                :             metric tons
Corn            :
March 1 ........:110,114,070   88,579,800  198,693,870
June 1 .........: 62,776,450   56,890,470  119,666,920
September 1 ....: 15,936,690   28,186,610   44,123,310
December 1 .....:193,328,300  121,226,350  314,554,650
                :

Released March 29, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

トウモロコシ相場  6月に向けた行程

当社では、米国現地3月21日(木)の戻りで「いいところに戻してきた」と考えています。
 
6月に向けた行程

<シカゴ(CBOT)先物の予定
CBOT 2019年5月限 受渡通知初日 4月30日
CBOT 2019年7月限 受渡通知初日 6月28日

当社では、これから3~8月について、(ⅰ)米国のトウモロコシ輸出は減速するだろう(ⅱ)ブラジルの2期作トウモロコシは増産になり、ブラジル産トウモロコシの輸出が本格化するだろう(ⅲ)米国のエタノール生産は前年同期を下回って推移するだろう(ⅳ)6~8月は米国内の飼料需要に小麦が使われる可能性が増大するだろう、という見通しを描いています。

週末の「日報」で、米国現地3月21日(木)の戻りで「いいところに戻してきた」と記しました。3月から4月は必要な時間をかけながら進むときです。シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ先物は、例年7月限の受渡通知(6月末)に向けて建玉整理が進む。それに焦点を合わせながら、売りの展望を切り拓いていければよいと考えています。

<シカゴ(CBOT)5月限の値段と建玉

日付 5月限値段 出来高  5限建玉 7限建玉 9限建玉 12限建玉 総取組高
3/25 3.7975  290,371
3/22 3.7825  415,903  767,635 418,047 217,853 303,296 182万0,847(枚)
3/21 3.7625  426,689  777,649 403,079 220,770 302,097 181万6,855
3/20 3.7150  173,690  783,752 396,843 218,422 299,780 180万9,700
3/19 3.7125  278,990  788,001 394,196 218,392 299,214 181万0,048
3/18 3.7150  319,022  786,945 389,102 218,204 297,249 180万1,108
3/15 3.7325  355,215  780,609 384,534 210,659 298,758 178万3,193
3/14 3.7025  353,712  784,390 385,659 207,480 293,233 177万5,708
3/13 3.6650  309,271  788,284 390,346 203,323 289,526 177万1,324
3/12 3.6575  488,697  792,945 380,612 201,615 285,726 175万7,475
3/11 3.6200  307,653  784,682 375,697 200,650 286,336 174万1,975

輸出の失速

当社では、6~8月は飼料原料として小麦が使われる可能性が増大すると考えています。すでに米国エタノール生産は昨年11月から5カ月連続で前年実績を割り込んでいます。それに加えて、米国トウモロコシ輸出も3~8月は前年実績を下回る公算が大きい。足もとのベーシス水準の強さがこのあとも続くのかどうか、物事が必要とする時間の進捗を見ながら確かめています。

米国トウモロコシ輸出の失速を下に記します。

<データ=米国農産物の輸出検量
Grains Inspected For Export
Reported in Week Ending MAR 21, 2019
単位:メトリック・トン
              前週   前年同期    今年度   前年度
GRAIN  03/21/2019  03/14/2019  03/22/2018     累計    累計
CORN    995,997   803,213   1,330,442  28,400,933 23,123,763
SORGHUM   2,349    25,519   262,249    977,050  3,796,568
SOYBEANS  857,970   849,700   710,004  28,554,596 40,940,759
WHEAT   340,398   385,119   343,772  18,349,246 19,500,399

Grains Inspected For Export
Reported in Week Ending MAR 14, 2019
単位:メトリック・トン
              前週   前年同期    今年度   前年度
GRAIN  03/14/2019  03/07/2019  03/15/2018     累計    累計
CORN    795,241   803,351  1,439,155  27,396,964 21,793,321
SORGHUM   25,064    64,110   252,524    974,198  3,534,319
SOYBEANS  841,888   887,760   500,452  27,688,349 40,230,755
WHEAT   353,727   611,955   444,806  17,975,835 19,156,627

Grains Inspected For Export
Reported in Week Ending MAR 07, 2019
単位:メトリック・トン
              前週   前年同期    今年度   前年度
GRAIN  03/07/2019  02/28/2019  03/08/2018     累計    累計
CORN    765,618   865,617  1,377,244  26,563,990 20,354,166
SORGHUM   63,583    58,736   194,539    948,607  3,281,795
SOYBEANS  874,363   848,357   930,222  26,832,281 39,730,303
WHEAT   592,001   488,829   428,815  17,602,154 18,711,821

トウモロコシ相場  ロジスティクスの問題

米中西部のベーシス水準はまだ強い。
 
●2月28日(木)~3月8日(金)の「日報」
 
本年(2019)2月28日~3月8日(金)の「日報」では、当社の立場と意見を次のように記しました。

当社では、これから3~8月について(ⅰ)米国のトウモロコシ輸出は減速するだろう(ⅱ)ブラジルの2期作トウモロコシは増産になり、ブラジル産トウモロコシの輸出が本格化するだろう(ⅲ)米国のエタノール生産は前年同期を下回って推移するだろう(ⅳ)6~8月は米国内の飼料需要に小麦が使われる可能性が増大するだろう、という見通しを描いています。
 
そういう先安観の見通しを描いたうえで、足もとの米国穀物市場については現物取引のベーシス水準が強いので、目先は<日柄をかけて検証する>つもりで臨んでいく方がよい。オマハ-カウンシルブラフスのベーシス水準はとても強い。これが3~6月に持続するのかどうか、物事が必要とする時間の進捗を見ながら確かめていく方がよいと考えています。

 
●米中西部のベーシス水準の強さ
 
当社では、シカゴ(CBOT)トウモロコシ先物を分析するとき「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準を感度のよい指標にしています。
 
(ⅰ)シカゴ(CBOT)先物がファンドの売りによって下げていても、米中西部供給地の「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が上昇しているときは、シカゴ(CBOT)先物の下値は限定されています。ファンドの売りに追随することはできない。
 
(ⅱ)反対に、「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が下落しているときは売りで行くことができる。シカゴ(CBOT)先物でファンドの買いが続き、相場が跳ね上げているときでも、「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準が低下しているなら、シカゴ(CBOT)先物の高値に持続力はないので<売り>を追求します。
 
「オマハ-カウンシルブラフス」のベーシス水準は本年(2019)3月、前年同期と比較してとても強い。

#2 黄トウモロコシ
      K=2019年5月限
日付    シカゴ基準限月 オマハ現物   ベーシス
 
3/15 2019  3.7150 K   3.62-3.70   -10K -2K unch-up 3
3/15 2019  3.7325 K   3.63-3.68   -10K -5K unch
3/14 2019  3.7025 K   3.60-3.65   -10K -5K unch
3/13 2019  3.6650 K   3.57-3.62   -10K -5K unch
3/12 2019  3.6575 K   3.56-3.61   -10K -5K unch-up 3
3/11 2019  3.6200 K   3.52-3.54   -10K -8K unch
3/08 2019  3.6425 K   3.54-3.56   -10K -8K up 2-unch
3/07 2019  3.6525 K   3.53-3.57   -12K -8K unch
3/06 2019  3.7250 K   3.61-3.65   -12K -8K up 5-unch
3/05 2019  3.7575 K   3.59-3.68   -17K -8K unch
3/04 2019  3.7475 K   3.58-3.67   -17K -8K unch
 
前年同期
      K=2018年5月限
日付    シカゴ基準限月 オマハ現物   ベーシス
3/23 2018  3.7725 K   3.47-3.52   -30K –25K unch
3/22 2018  3.7600 K   3.46-3.51   -30K –25K unch
3/21 2018  3.7500 K   3.45-3.50   -30K –25K unch-up 2
3/20 2018  3.7450 K   3.45-3.48   -30K –27K unch
3/19 2018  3.7500 K   3.45-3.48   -30K –27K unch
3/16 2018  3.8275 K   3.53-3.56   -30K –27K unch-dn 1
3/15 2018  3.8675 K   3.57-3.61   -30K –26K dn 3-unch
3/14 2018  3.8875 K   3.62-3.63   -27K –26K up 1-unch
3/13 2018  3.9175 K   3.64-3.66   -28K –26K unch
3/12 2018  3.9075 K   3.63-3.65   -28K –26K unch-dn 2
3/09 2018  3.9050 K   3.63-3.67   -28K -24K unch
3/08 2018  3.9350 K   3.66-3.70   -28K -24K unch
3/07 2018  3.8725 K   3.59-3.63   -28K -24K unch
3/06 2018  3.8825 K   3.60-3.64   -28K -24K unch
3/05 2018  3.8725 K   3.59-3.63   -28K –24K unch-up 1
 
●河川の増水など

 
雨や雪、河川の増水や氾濫など、現物出荷や移送に問題が発生している可能性が高い。
 
3月18日(月)のニュース
https://www.agweb.com/article/catastrophic-flooding-in-the-plains/
 
3月13日(水)の画像
 
●必要とする時間
 
当社では、例年7月限の受渡通知(6月末)に向けて建玉整理が進むので、それに焦点を合わせながら、売りの展望を切り拓いていければよいと考えています。
 
ブラジル国家食糧供給公社(CONAB)が発表した生産予想によれば、2期作トウモロコシの作況は良好です。
 
米国のトウモロコシ輸出は、予想通り、失速しています。
 
米国エタノール生産も前年割れで推移しています。
 
ただ、足もとでは、米中西部の供給地で天候悪、河川の増水や氾濫、気温の低さなどが下値をサポートしているので、時間の進捗を待つ必要があると思います。種もまいていないうちから先を急ぐことはできません。

一般的に言って、3月から4月は必要な時間をかけながら進むときです。3月20日を過ぎると、米国中西部でも春を意識するようになります。ミシシッピ水系の河川の増水やバージ輸送の状況が気になりますが、6月に向けて改善されるという見通しで臨んでいきたいと思います。

足もとでは、米中西部の供給地で天候悪、河川の増水や氾濫、気温の低さなどが下値をサポートしているので、時間の進捗を待つ必要があると思います。本年の作付けまで、まだ相当な時間があります。天候と作付けに問題がなければ6月は建玉整理になるので、それに焦点を合わせて売りの展望を切り拓いて行ければOKです。

「市況研究社日報」第3893号 2019年 3月19日(火)

韓国のトウモロコシ購入価格(8-9月入着玉)

今週は「韓国8-9月入着玉=195ドル(CFR)」の観測をお伝えしました。

実際の購入価格は下記の通りです。韓国農協(農協飼料)も購入しています。

●2019年3月8日(金)

Buyer    韓国飼料協会(釜山)
Seller    CHS
Origin    worldwide-origins 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   60,000トン
Arrival   2019年9月25日
C&F basis  $191.60/mt CFR
 
●2019年3月7日(木)
 
Buyer    韓国 Feed Leaders Committee(FLC)
Seller    三井物産
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   68,000トン
Arrival   2019年8月20日
C&F basis  $193.99/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading
 
Buyer    韓国 Feed Leaders Committee(FLC)
Seller    Pan Ocean
Origin    optional-origin 飼料用黄トウモロコシ
Tonnage   68,000トン
Arrival   2019年9月15日
C&F basis  $192.99/mt CFR
plus $1.25/ton surcharge for additional port unloading

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