Regret Theory final
後悔しないように、という行動指針は、人々を幸せにもしないし、豊かにもしない。
馬券は後悔しないように、全通り買わないといけないし、損しそうでも株式は買わないといけない。その結果、損をして後悔をして、二度と買わない、投資はやらない、と決めるが、今度は、儲けている人々を見て、投資しなかったことを後悔する。
後悔の連続だ。後悔スパイラルに陥っている。
ばかばかしい。
しかし、それが現実だ。
実は、投資に成功しても、ギャンブルに成功しても、後悔スパイラルはとまらない。600倍の馬券を当てても、4000倍のものを当てても、もっと買っておけばよかった、と必ず後悔する。これは、阿木耀子も言っている。初めて競馬場にって、財布の中身全額を一点に賭けようとしたが、同行した人に止められて、1万円だけにしたら、それが60倍になった。「賭け事って、当たっても後悔するものなのね。」と。
これが真実だ。ギャンブルも投資も後悔は無限だ。成功しても失敗しても、後悔の連続だ。全財産をギャンブルして600倍にしたときだけは、後悔しないだろう。しかし、それが起きることはない。それを目指せば、一回で破産する。
だから、ルールで縛る。倍張りというギャンブルの必勝法のルールや、損切りという投資のルール。
しかし、これは間違いだ。そのルールを設定したことを後悔する。損切りでも後悔するし、どうなっても後悔する。
唯一の正しい道は、後悔することに慣れる、ということだ。
人間はばかばかしい。人間は愚かだ。この現実を受け入れる。それだけのことだ。
後悔するだろう。後悔して、次のギャンブル、投資には、揺らぎが生じるだろう。予想は狂い、投資はためらいが生じる。それは最小化すべきだ。
しかし、最小化するには、後悔することになれることしかない。
愚かな人間、愚かな自分を受け入れること。これが、人生においても、投資においても、ギャンブルにおいてもすべてだ。
いや。ギャンブルにおいてはそれがすべてだ、と言えば済む話だ。
なぜなら、人生はすべてギャンブル。
この事実も受け入れないといけない。
受け入れられなければ、投資は一切しないか、長期投資の勧めに従っていればよい。
しかし、それは、また別のギャンブルをしていることに過ぎないことに、いつか気づいてしまう。
誰も、ギャンブルから、後悔から、逃れられない。
Posted by sobata2005 at 17:58│
Comments(104)│
clip!
より良い選択肢が無限にあったのと同様、より悪い選択肢も無限にあった中、運命としての今があります。
常に後悔から逃れられないと知ったとき、常に安堵の中にいます。
そして人生は、楽しむべきものに。
No regrets about regreting.
このところ最近、いつもと違うような気がしますが、どうかされたのですか?
先生でも後悔されることがあるのかと、少し安心しながら拝見しました。私の場合は後悔だらけでして。
投資、投機したり、書き込みしたりする者として思うのは、自らの発言(書き込み)に縛られる自分がいることです。
先生などと違い、名無しで掲示板に書き込んだりする程度の者ですが、そんな自分の書き込みに縛られていることを感じることが多々あります。
私は、いい加減な名無しですので、「相場は相場」で流れに乗り、損をせず、利益を得たいものだと、それが出来るようになりたいと思っています。
補足ですが、
先生の文章を斜めに読んでみると
投資業界には、
「長期投資を説く後悔すべき人々がいる」
云々とも、私には読め
先生らしいなと思ってしまいました
>>全財産をギャンブルして600倍にしたときだけは、後悔しないだろう。
いいえ、後悔します。全財産というのが、この世の財全てなら別ですが。
ところで、大損でもしたんですか?急に意味不明な円安が起きたからかしら。
なんだかお困りの様な。後悔はしてもしなくても同じ。現実は変わらない。基本的に長期的には何事も原理原則に従う。因果関係は紛れもなくはっきりしている。時間軸を変えて観察することでごまかすことが出来る。そのごまかしに上手く乗ってみるか原則に落ち着くのを待つか、それはもはや人生観の問題である。3次元の物理的制約の中で生きるものに原理原則から逃れる方法は無く、あるのは利用する事だけ。引力も質量も実在する。人為はとても虚しい結果を生む。不幸を生む。反対側の人たちを幸福にするために。どちら側に立つのかは、やはり人生観の問題である。先生、頑張ってください。応援している人は想像以上に多いと思います。
投資に関しては少し分析も含めて休まれた方がよいのでは?
値動き、ボラティリティ、適切なストップロスを設計できるときのみに投資の分析を行うだけでも十分価値があります。わからないことまで手を出し、更にマーケットからのシンパシーを感じ取りながらトレードを行うと今のマーケットであれば、確実に精神破綻をきたすと思います。
9:1でわかる、6:4でわかるようなきがする、2:8ほとんどわからないが、10のうち2はパターン化される、1:10でほとんどわからない、というような観点で市場と対峙することで、失敗や後悔も自分の統計的なデータとして蓄積することでトレード自体の精神的負担が緩和されるように思います。
皆さん
コメント、ご議論、ご心配、ありがとうございます。
大変参考になります。
また、ちょっと、ゴールも定まらないまま、思索の過程をそのまま文章にしたものにお付き合いいただき、ありがとうございます。
行動経済学にはRegret Theoryというものがあって、Prospect Theory といわば二大体系なのですが、それらではない、新しい体系を考えて見ている過程なので、いろいろご迷惑をおかけしますが、今後ともよろしくお願いします。
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